Globus Maritime Share Discussion Threads

[robsy2] 29/2/2008 16:38

Ah there you are again Slapdash!
I have bought another 5k today, having re-read the excellent Courant research. (Wonder what he does for a day job?).
The spread is horrible but the prospects look good. It just looks too cheap and the divi flow looks very interesting and ultimately that should be enough to make this kick along provided they can bring in the income.
I am thinking that if the 2007 results are in line we have eps of 25p, with my estimate of final divi , payable very soon, of around 10.5p per share.
Moving onto year end 2008,assuming eps of 100p and a 25%/75% divi payout of 50% of the earnings , we should receive 12p a share in Sept 2008 and another 38p a share in March 2009.
So by buying the share now I should get around 60p a share income over the next 12 months which is about 14% on my money.If they do the figures,and this looks likely given the nature of the business, and the conservative nature of the estimates then we can reasonable expect some up side on the share price from 400p ish to maybe 600 p in that time frame , that will be the icing on the cake for me.
By this time on Monday we will have a pretty clear idea of what progress has been made.
h a n w
R

[slapdash] 20/2/2008 12:34

bought some of these but not again.. spread is ridiculous..... slap

[alter ego] 19/2/2008 11:52

I see from the company website that there are now 3 ships on spot charter - presume managemnt still think rates here are too good to miss.

[xdavid] 31/1/2008 19:45

Thanks to briggs1209 (on GOC board) for these interesting links...

Consolidation... "The purchase could trigger other acquisitions within the industry, Mavrinac said. ``You can see continued consolidation,'' he said. ``More of the consolidation may be public companies buying private assets.''



New life in BDI ?... "The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, surged 5.1 percent in London, its biggest 1 day gain in almost two years."



GLBS now on 2008 PE of around 4 and divi yield of 12%

[alter ego] 22/1/2008 16:55

The Sp has been hit hard, perhaps 'cos of worldwide recession fears. Latest announcement was before xmas so no specific adverse news recently. Charter and spot rates are down and falling but will this prove temporary? Sounds like GLBS plan to keep three ships on spot charter (River, Lake and Ocean) while seeking good long term charter contracts. Looking v cheap to me.

[alter ego] 17/1/2008 14:09

deadly, 90-100p seems realistic - see early posts on this thread for reasoning.

[xdavid] 20/12/2007 14:48

Yep. It will be interesting to see the new charter prices for the two Handymax vessels in Feb. Just wish GLBS was isa'ble so I could put it in my 'tuck-away-for-dividends' portfolio :-)

[chester] 20/12/2007 14:00

I thought I felt a move coming...

[orange1] 18/12/2007 13:49

Tiara Globe and River Globe have been delivered on time. River Globe will presently be deployed on the spot market.

[xdavid] 14/12/2007 13:36

I've been watching too. The previous touches down looked to me like an MM was trying to fill an order and was seeing if a move down would induce a seller, and get the requested offer price for the broker - but didn't want to move it too far down (cause he obviously didn't want more buyers queuing up). I see the 3000 trade today and suspect that was the buy order. If my theory is correct then it suggests that current stock is in 'solid' hands, any nervous holders already getting out during drop from peak. Not much liquidity, so looks good for effect of any demand.

[ramp mode on] You have been warned! Buy Now! [ramp mode off] :-)

EDIT: Sorry, I was miscalculating trade as 30,000 ( £150,000). I doubt if 3000 would need a worked order :-(

[orange1] 14/12/2007 11:45

Funnily enough I do. Price has been jumping around a fair bit on no r negligible volume - now looks as though it is to break upwards.

[chester] 14/12/2007 11:43

Anyone else feel a big move coming here ?

[orange1] 03/12/2007 21:10

Panmure Gordon have initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation and a price target of 700p.

[orange1] 28/11/2007 07:53

"We are very pleased that Credit Suisse has provided us with this highly attractive revolving loan facility of up to US$120 million, which provides us with the capital and financial flexibility to grow our company. The favourable terms of the loan facility reflect the credit worthiness of the charterers that charter our vessels, as well as the excellent relationships that we enjoy with our banks.

From this new facility, US$15 million will be used to refinance the existing short-term bridge loan, and up to US$100 million will be used to pay for the two dry bulk vessels which will be delivered to us next month, namely the newbuilding Handymax vessel to be named M/V "River Globe" and the 1998-built geared Panamax vessel to be named M/V "Tiara Globe."

[darlocst] 15/11/2007 15:30

Released today. Shouldn't this have been RNS'd?

Anyway on a quick scan all as expected.

I am now waiting for charter rates to be confirmed for 2008 (2 ships) & also that delivery of ship next month is on schedule.

[matt] 15/11/2007 09:17

alter, thanks for the link

[alter ego] 15/11/2007 08:53

Orange1, useful contribution, thanks. I'm waiting to see what contract rate GLBS achieves on the River Globe which is due for delivery next month. The news may rekindle some upward movement in the share price but I suspect that fleet valuation will be equally as important to the market cap as earnings going forward.

[orange1] 15/11/2007 07:48

Alter

Thanks for the link. This from the Diana results sets the scene nicely:
"In maintaining a bullish outlook on the company, Urs Dur, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, pointed out that Diana had chartered a modern Panamax ship, the Dione, for one year beginning January at a gross rate of $82,500 per day to Jiangsu Shagang of China, 188% higher than the Dione's current contract. "We continue to see a bullish balance in 2008, with demand for dry bulk ships increasing at a faster pace than supply until 2009," Dur said. "We continue to expect that Diana, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 14%, will grow its fleet in the future."

Dur reiterated his "buy" rating on Diana and increased his earnings per share estimate for 2008 to $3.09, up from $2.95.

Palios expects upcoming quarters to be strong as China, India, and other developing countries continue to grow economically, while at the same time the amount of supply in the dry bulk market is constrained by port congestion and the ton mile effect. As more dry bulk cargo is imported and exported from more regions, ton mileage grows, in effect constricting fleet size. Dry bulk ton mile demand is growing, which is bullish for dry buk shipping.

The last 12 months have seen enormous gains in the shipping industry as steel production and demand for raw materials in China has soared. (See " Dry Bulk Shippers Sailing High")

Although the long-term fundamental on the dry bulk shippers look strong, a slowdown in the U.S. economy could slow the movement of commodities globally, which could hurt dry bulk shippers.

Dur said that uncertainty on oil prices and the weakening dollar has wreaked havoc on the dry bulk shippers and he expects the volatility to continue through the end of the year."

[alter ego] 14/11/2007 22:50

matt, you could dyor at and tell others what you discover.

[matt] 14/11/2007 20:06

How are shipping rates going?

[m.t.glass] 12/11/2007 09:11

A Greek shipping company, Hellenic Carriers, plans to raise about 28.6 mln
stg from a listing on AIM - Sunday Times
("operates a fleet of dry bulk ships")

- and in the Telegraph:
Hellenic Carriers wants to raise $60m (£28.7m) and expects to be capitalised at $250m-$270m in a placing aimed at providing finance for strengthening the five-vessel fleet that transports iron ore, coal and other commodities. Dividend policy in a family-owned business will see a minimum of 50pc of net income distributed to shareholders.

[m.t.glass] 25/10/2007 16:35

intriguing little upkick at the end of today..

[xdavid] 19/10/2007 19:51

It's a bit quiet here (but that's just the way I like my ADVFN threads). I don't hold any shares in Global Oceanic Carriers (GOC) but their thread has been going longer and does throw up some useful information about bulk carrier market in general and quite often GLBS (which has been getting used as a comparison lately). Personally, I still prefer GLBS on value basis but am thinking of spreading risk amongst others (but only in addition to my GLBS!)...



Any other threads that people have found useful?

[generalcuster] 19/10/2007 14:41

davebowler

dont worry about the dollar exposure. all shipping contracts are priced in dollars and all revenues received are in dollars, the company reports in dollars and pays its dividend in dollars - its just converted for you when you receive it.

normally dry bulk shippers based in europe have about 20% of their costs in euros e.g. shore based personnel salaries and spares and repairs purchases from european suppliers. these can be well budgeted so if they want, shippers can take out currency forwards against the movements.

i dont think the price of this stock will be affected by any fx changes.