Globus Maritime Share Discussion Threads

[slapdash] 18/10/2007 01:15

target price anyone??? Slapper

[sven2006] 17/10/2007 17:39

thanks for everything today Courant

[courant] 17/10/2007 17:04

Little Minx

Well, my thoughts on fair value at 600p were congruent with eps for 2008 around 50p; eps now looks like being 100p. I'll leave the rest to you!

dave, yes, with earnings in dollars, this is clearly a risk. It's also a potential positive too! In short, I have no idea where the dollar is going and neither does anyone else - it's down to you to manage your dollar exposure at a portfolio level.

generalcuster - re GOC, yes, spot on. But GOC is cheaper on current metrics than GLBS. I see it highly unlikely that GLBS will play the spot market - it doesn't sound like what they'd do (from management comments in various presentations). With such a small fleet, they'd be too exposed too.

Courant

[davebowler] 17/10/2007 16:14

Just a thought- what if the Dollar collapses -the agreed rates would then be a trap!

[generalcuster] 17/10/2007 16:14

I was looking at the fleet for GO Carriers and the redelivery dates - its a different story from Globus. They have 3 vessels to be redelivered in 2008 but if you take into account charterer's options, I reckon it will be the end of 2008 before they can start a new charter. Two of these vessels are also early 80's built vessels which will substantially lower the rate they get. I think they will roll onto better charters but the positive effect on EPS will be nothing like the kick Globus is getting.

It will be interesting to see if Globus stick to their original plan and TC long-term or start playing spot a little. Either way, there is lots of cash, lots of net income and lots of dividend to come.

[slapdash] 17/10/2007 16:11

well played guys... I should of bought four times more as this looked fairly close to a sure thing... oh well...

Slapper

[sven2006] 17/10/2007 15:58

many thanks for that Courant.

[little minx] 17/10/2007 15:58

Courant read the bit on link above. Now what, if you have had time to work on it, do you see current fair value as?`

[courant] 17/10/2007 15:52

I should add, given the way charter rates are going and the excellent recent news, I'd revise upwards my 600p fair value statement! I continue to hold.

Courant

[courant] 17/10/2007 15:49

Sven,

Have a read here:



Courant

[sven2006] 17/10/2007 15:45

alter ego, why are charter rates going up ?

[alter ego] 17/10/2007 15:29

leaks? Just look at the BDI, its been going up and up all year. Charter rates are published for anyone to see so it doesn't take a genius or a leak to infer that GLBS were going to be able to get a good rate for their next charter. What surprises me is that it took people by surprise.

[matt] 17/10/2007 15:12

So the question is with the big price rise of the last few days is there some leaky shipping ; ) news getting out?

[courant] 17/10/2007 13:58

Yes, running the number through, a 90p EPS requires getting an average of c.35,000 for the 3 handies. Charter rates for a new handy are in the region of 52k, so I see this comfortably being beaten. My guestimate is for eps in the range 110p for 2008, not even allowing for renegociation of the Coral Globe charter. Outstanding value.

Courant

[olivercromwell] 17/10/2007 13:51

2.5 year payback then asset is fully owned - with rates forecast to strengthen and second values to rise gradually till 2011 then u can see its a smart bit of business

drys upgraded yesterday as well, very bullish -

sold GOC fro DGO and gonna wait for break above 150 or rates news whichever first,

that bloody chart strikes fear but u can't deny these fundies for GLBS

[darlocst] 17/10/2007 13:50

The amazing thing is the increase in charter rates in just a few months.

Their other, slightly older Panamax, M/V Island Globe, delivered in July 07 is on a 2 year charter at USD 30k per day. Rate acheived for a very similar ship has doubled in just a few months!

Given this charter rate anyone want to guess on the average charter rates possible for the other 3 ships who's charters are up for renewal in the next few months?

Ship Year Built Type Date delivered DWT New Charter start
M/V Ocean Globe 1995 Handymax Sep-06 43,189.00 Feb-08
M/V Lake Globe 1994 Handymax Dec-06 43,216.00 Feb-08
M/V River Globe 2007 Handymax Dec-07 53,500.00 Jan-07

I reckon they could get achieve:

35k for Ocean & Lake & 45k for River (given its a new ship & charter rate will apply for the whole year).

I estimate that would mean EPS of over 100p for 2008.

[saucepan] 17/10/2007 13:38

A superb announcement! No wonder the share price is flying.

[courant] 17/10/2007 13:30

USD66,000 is absolutely massive. My own quick calcs about the charter rates required to meet the forecasts 08 earnings was 42,000 for the panamax. The agreed rate has absolutely smashed this!!! Given the operational gearing, this really is going to boost earnings.

It's nuts... a 9 year old ship purchased for USD 66.8m, yielding over USD43 gross!!!

Courant

[darlocst] 17/10/2007 13:20

More than nice. This gives great confidence to broker forecasts for EPS of 98p in 2008.

[davebowler] 17/10/2007 10:41

I agree;if GOC traces the same meteoric rise as GLBS there is a good 20% jump
ahead.

[saucepan] 17/10/2007 09:28

Hi Chester

Nice to see some more good company! IMHO, GLBS looks an excellent growth story in a sector that is hotting up.

I expect stable-mate Global Oceanic Carriers to join the party soon. On the face of it, GOC seems an equally exciting young growth company with glaringly undervalued fundamentals.

[chester] 17/10/2007 09:02

Morning, I bought some of these this morning.

MTG, are you continuing 'your' thread this Winter ?

[slapdash] 16/10/2007 19:30

beautiful new high and I´m guessing this will be up tomorrow too judging by today´s finish... slapper