Elegant Hotels Share Discussion Threads

[flagon] 05/9/2016 08:18

Thanks Saucepan

[flagon] 05/9/2016 08:11

Judging by the trades this morning it looks as though EHG has been tipped ... anyone know where ?

[saucepan] 31/8/2016 20:16

Fair enough. Thanks for your research.

[lbo] 31/8/2016 20:05

In Elegant's own words;"Current trading and outlookOver the last few months the Group has experienced a variety of challenges. In common with the rest of the luxury hotel market in Barbados, the Group has seen an impact on customer demand as a result of wider issues that are largely beyond its control: the current political uncertainty in the UK has led to a reduction in consumer appetite for luxury holidays, and publicity around the Zika virus has resulted in room cancellations and in substantial competitor discounting"

[saucepan] 31/8/2016 16:24

The figures, while they certainly deserve to be taken into consideration, provide no insights as to whether elite hotels have fared better or worse than budget hotels.

My own hunch is that the behaviour of the super-rich will not be much affected by, say, the slip of an exchange rate. They can still afford a holiday of their choice.

EHG is positioned at the luxury end of the market.

[lbo] 31/8/2016 14:09

Agree the actual term of coming in 3's is not a fact but it is not a myth!

In the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, around 17% of UK companies issued profit warnings, which means the vast majority met their forecasts. But, when companies get it wrong, they seem more likely than before to get it wrong again. In Q1 16, 47% of companies warning had already issued a profit warning in the last 12 months, significantly higher than the same period in 2015. Sixteen companies warning in Q1 16 had issued three or more warnings in the last 12 months. Profit warnings clearly don’t always come in threes – as the old adage goes – but that pattern is becoming more common.

[stemis] 31/8/2016 13:27

The profits warnings come in 3s is just investing myth. Clearly the trading environment is tough but that's why its 75p not 100p. Eventually it'll recover. The company has great asset backing for its debt and with Waves opening there'll be more cashflow

[lbo] 31/8/2016 10:21

One of the brokers highlighted one of the big risks: "Risks: 70% of clients come from the UK"

And now with a 20% fall in the Value of Sterling against the dollar the recent profit warning by Elegant hotels even before Brexit was voted through will only see bookings soften further from the UK. Add in Zika worries and the fact profit warnings usually come in 3's and you can see why the market is pricing in a cut in EPS and a cut in the dividend.

Also another problem they have is their debt is Dollar dominated and all floating which means interest rate will rise with rise in US rates and also their capital repayments also start next year.

[che7win] 30/8/2016 10:55

Bought some this morning.

[winsome147] 26/8/2016 08:31

One to sit tight on for the yield and huge discount to NAV. There's a chance next year's revenue could be subdued due to Zika and sterling/dollar rate.

But then again, when the sensationalism about Zika dies down this winter's bookings may not be affected much and the new Waves hotel should increase overall revenue.

Rio olympics showed vast majority of people now not worried about it.

[stemis] 24/8/2016 00:32

Surely this has an element of a property company about it.

On that basis the key ratios are tNAV per share = 177p (at current exchange rate) cp to share price of 75.5p.

Net LTV of 21% so pretty low.

Dividend yield of 9.3%. Dividend cost is $8.2m. It would take quite a fall in profits for this to become uncovered and I'm guessing that even then the company could cover it for a while from debt.

[saucepan] 23/8/2016 12:35

StevenLondon3: you might be correct; however, Elegant's hotels provide offerings at the exclusive end of the holiday spectrum rather than budget. I suspect the super-rich won't be too bothered about exchange rates.

My understanding is that the main potential drag on both sentiment and holiday patterns has been the Zika virus. That remains a concern, but as far as I am aware the situation is not getting worse and may even be improving. I am not aware of recent cases in Barbados.

Agreed, Flagon, the price rise supported by volume augurs well.

[flagon] 23/8/2016 12:08

Up again on big volume of 1M+ shares traded so far today.

[stevenlondon3] 23/8/2016 10:12

Large discount to NAV but I am nervous that with the weak pound the company will produce a profit warning because bookings have been materially affected.

[kevjones2] 11/8/2016 09:04

Double post.

[kevjones2] 11/8/2016 09:02

I urge all posters to read abarclay's posts on various ADVFN threads this morning alone.

If I was the type of source he uses my headline would be:

"Crazed shorter runs amok on business bulletin boards. Obviously losing his small parental inheritance."