Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[harrissen] 14/2/2013 09:52

Mark Knopfler
12 Feb'13 - 17:00 - 3 of 3 0 0


Prof


Are you related to Professor Plum ?

.............................



He would be more of a Prof. James Moriarty type I'm thinking!?

[harrissen] 14/2/2013 09:46

Professor Pettigrew
14 Feb'13 - 09:30 - 25 of 25 0 0


May I please remind any posters on here to include the EPIC code of the name of the stock they are referring to, please no "off-topic" comments and NO general comments such as "good thread".

I would like this to be an interesting discussion board only focussing on the 5 stocks mentioned in the header.

Thank you in advance for your cooperation

....................


What a pompous old windbag you are Prof!

Who the hell do you think you are coming on here as a newbie and straight away start laying down the law about what can and cannot be discussed on your ropey little thread.

Sod off I say ans stick your 5 'researched' stock up where the sun don't shine - have a nice day prof!

[professor pettigrew] 14/2/2013 09:30

May I please remind any posters on here to include the EPIC code of the name of the stock they are referring to, please no "off-topic" comments and NO general comments such as "good thread".

I would like this to be an interesting discussion board only focussing on the 5 stocks mentioned in the header.

Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[wrestlingmad] 14/2/2013 09:19

...........good thread..............

[tara7] 14/2/2013 09:11

PTO:

It is growth like this that every investor wants.


Year Ending

31-Dec-12 0.65m profit 7.70p eps Growth 810%

31-Dec-13 1.30m profit 15.48p eps Growth 99%

The above are broker forecasts, for this year[2013] i think based on my own research PTO could do �3M.

The broker will in my view update in March 2013 after results, and again after the 2013 half year.[Aug]

[chinese investor] 14/2/2013 09:10

PTO

Prof - I bought lots of these when they were 50p and I have been Top Slicing since.

I've made lots of money trading PFD and REM.

[smelgy] 14/2/2013 09:03

PTO

I am a holder of this stock. Many thanks "professor" for your inclusion of it in your growth portfolio.

Looking forward to PTO (and your other selections) coming good.

[professor pettigrew] 13/2/2013 11:10

Could I ask that comments here be made, either bull or bear, directly about a stock and not in general as per previous posts from Harrissen, bingowing and ohwhat?

As I stated when this thread was created a few days back, I will not be posting here much as I would like to trust the maturity of the investing community to make this a multi-stock discussion thread, but without posts or comment that are irrelevant to the business in hand.

Thank you in advance.

[professor pettigrew] 13/2/2013 11:07

NTOG

I would like to point out, that Nostra Terra have just released an RNS confirming that their Chisholm well, in which they have a 5.31% working stake is currently exceeding expectations as regards to BOPD.

[ohwhat] 13/2/2013 08:57

ops duplicate, don't know how, deleted copy.

[ohwhat] 13/2/2013 08:53

Harrissen - I would not be surprised :

The good professor has only just arrived.

professor pettigrew

Profile Created 08 Feb 2013
(30 days) 14
(90 days) 14
(Total) 14

[bingowing] 13/2/2013 08:10

Please don't make this into a PTO thread.

Regards

[tara7] 13/2/2013 08:09

PTO;

Madigansar
12 Feb'13 - 22:00 - 3922 of 3945 0 0


I emailed investor relations on the website re why not RNS major contract wins - happy to say I got the following reply as I have emailed other companies in the past and got no reply !

M

Thanks for your note and you interest in Publishing Technology.

We do try to announce what we can, although naming customers can sometimes be difficult as many publishers are quite sensitive. We would still make an announcement without naming the customer if it were significant (as we did in the half year trading announcement in 2012) - and of course we take the advice of our nomad Westhouse and announce anything which would be market significant.

In the last year or so the policy has been if the signing is close to any of the "standard" announcements we add it to that - and in 2012 this is how the larger deals have been announced (CNPIEC and London book fair in AGM announcement, the status with completions and new win on advance in the interim announcement and HarperCollins with the year end trading update). The timings meant we didn't need a separate RNS for any of these in 2012.

Going forward, my goal is to keep the market appraised more regularly so I expect there will be a few more RNS purely on trading than there were in the past. If you have any other questions please let me know and I look forward to meeting you at the AGM if you are able to attend.

Kind regards

Alan



Alan B Moug C.A.
CFO
Publishing Technology plc

[mark knopfler] 12/2/2013 17:00

Prof


Are you related to Professor Plum ?

[professor pettigrew] 12/2/2013 15:08

PTO

Tara7 - yes I agree there. I do not hold PTO, out of the 5 stocks in this "mini-portfolio" I hold EZJ and NTOG, although interestingly the fundamentals at PTO are perhaps more compelling than the others.

Doing a performance valuation starting on Mar 1st will fully allow for any reaction to the results 4 days afterwards, and I will be interested to see which stock of the 5 performs the best by the end of the year.

[tara7] 12/2/2013 14:56

PTO:

Professor, if one buys any stock one has risk.

The trick is to have such huge gains 30% compound plus [is what i have done over the last 7 years.]

One needs to start with a stock that CAN ten bag from the start[not saying that they all will].

Take PTO, low market cap, unknown, brand new digital software made from the bottom up,[not stick on bits of mish mash]

Then add high margins, fast growing turnover, debt reduction, and you get something for nothing. [CHEAP GROWTH]

PTO is being re rated right now by the market based on todays broker forecasts.

Those forecasts are in my view going to be smashed.

[professor pettigrew] 12/2/2013 14:34

Thank you to those who have posted so far. It is interesting to get a spread of ideas on a small basket of stocks. Hopefully this thread will grow into a major discussion board. I will update the performance of the 5 stocks on a monthly basis beginning March 1st.

Hopefully we will beat the general market by quite some way.

[monkey puzzle] 12/2/2013 13:00

NTOG

Well your inclusion of NTOG came as a nice surprise there PP when one considers the thousands of shares out there to chose from.

I am very bullish towards NTOG and its prospects going forwards. Certainly CT has changed things in a big way for Matt Lofgran and his small team and looks likely to underpin growing revenues and the strong likelihood that NTOG will be cash flow positive very soon. Not many junior oilers can say that with any certainty that's for sure.

The company is closing in on its targetted production numbers for this year and should hit them this quarter.

As for the future, there are a number of prospects that will get updates this year, including Verde 2 and a number of wells at Bale Creek plus we have a strong possibility of more stakes being taken in the highly rated Chisholm Trail with Ward as an excellent partner where we currently have interests in CT1-CT4, news on CT4 due soon and then more on the WIs in the next drills there.

Then there is the mystery Oklahoma play where NTOG currently has 100% ownership. No other information is in the public domain yet.....and that could be huge for NTOG.

Current share price offers little enterprise value to shareholders when you compare NTOG with a peer like MAGP where production and costs are very simlar and if NTOG were rated the same the share price would be at least double where it is today.

To get to a price of 3p, I woulde expect production would need to be @250-300 bopd which might be a little ambitious for now although you have caveated that with a 3 year time frame so definitely possible.

For now I would be happy to target 1.2p-1.5p for this year and then review as more prospects are confirmed.

[tara7] 12/2/2013 12:41

PTO:

14 January, 2013

Publishing Technology plc

("Publishing Technology" or "the Company")

Trading Update

Publishing Technology plc (LSE: PTO), the AIM quoted world-leading provider of content solutions that transform the publishing business, announces that it expects its results for the year ended 31 December 2012 to be in line with market expectations. This has been a year in which the Company has strengthened the position of its new products with revenue from both Pub2web and advance growing significantly.

Publishing Technology combines unmatched publishing industry knowledge, global reach and a perpetual support model with its advance suite of enterprise software tailored for the publishing market, the suite of online content solutions comprising the ingentaconnect scholarly portal and the pub2web digital content hosting platform, and the Publishers Communication Group (PCG) sales and marketing consultancy, to offer the publishing industry's only full spectrum of solutions to help publishers move their content forward into the digital age.

The Company is reaching the end of the current research and development cycle for the advance and Pub2web which are due for completion in 2013, and has begun to make significant sales from these products. One notable deal is with HarperCollins, a subsidiary of NewsCorp, to implement advance Product Manager, unifying editorial, marketing and business data around the world, widening the reach of HarperCollins print and digital publications in its core target markets. The system will support the entire global portfolio of HarperCollins publications which demonstrates how the industry is endorsing this new generation of enterprise products.

The research and development expenditure of roughly GBP3m per annum in each of the last few years has been written off in the period in which it was incurred leaving no capitalised development expenditure to impact future profits.

Our strategy has been to invest heavily in the next generation of publishing software whilst maintaining excellent customer relations with existing customers on mature products. As a result, not only are revenues from new products incremental to profitability, but our mature products and services have grown modestly while maintaining their healthy margins.

Our newly formed joint venture in China continues to develop and while it will not produce a profit in 2012, our agreement with the largest import & export organisation, CNPIEC, has been ground breaking.

Publishers Communication Group (PCG), maintained margins and high customer satisfaction in its "Full Service Representation" division where sales of Bloomsbury's Churchill archive in particular were ahead of forecast.

The outlook for 2013 is for a continued improvement in revenues from our new products and services, a small decline in mature product revenue and further strides toward profitability in China, coupled with a declining rate of investment in research and development.

George Lossius, CEO at Publishing Technology, commented:

"Sales of our new generation products continue to grow apace, with a steady stream of new business implementations adding to our incremental recurring revenue base. After many years of investment, the increasing confidence of the market in our products underlines our confidence that we have the right strategy. At the same time, the decline in our mature products and services has been slower than we had anticipated which has allowed our profits to hold up during these years of investment."


From the trading statement above it is clear that this company is going places.

[davesta] 12/2/2013 12:37

EZJ:

Absolutely agree with your analysis of EZJ here! I've had a long spread bet open on them since the beginning of Jan (with another 2 pyramid buys), with a short term view to get out in ~2 months at a target of circa 1,100p. I can potentially see myself holding on for a good while longer though, if the growth continues...

A few additional thoughts about the stock:

- The stock is positioning itself to an almost-guaranteed entry into the FTSE100 in March (currently around 85th in the list of UK Market Caps, with the top 90 being the guaranteed entry point). This should see a jump in share price in the short-term as index tracker funds get on board, and then further exposure to a higher number of investors which will hopefully see the share price continue to grow further.

- The stock seems to benefit from a monthly update in passenger statistics (on around the 6th of each month). Being invariably positive news each month at the moment, this seems to bring the stock onto potential investor's radars much more often than most stocks, and results in some regular uplift in share price.

- I am always interested in shares that release good news after good news after good news coupled with strong and/or increasing PBT, and this certainly seems to be the case with EZJ!

- On the downside, I am worried by the power wielded by Sir Stelios & family as the largest investor of EZJ. He seems hell-bent on in-fighting with the board, especially the soon-departing chairman, and isn't averse to making public threats about selling large parts of his holding. This adds some unwanted volatility in the short term, although currently the long term trend is strong enough to withstand this.

- I see this share reaching c.1050p before the FTSE reshuffle on 6th March (assuming it can break 1000p adequately) with a potential jump of c.10% on top of this upon entry to the FTSE100 (along with Feb passenger stats released the same day). In the long-term, I am reminded of the advice that 'trends can continue a lot longer than you expect them to', and so I don't see growth to 1200p, 1500p, 1800p, even 2000p as being out of the question, although I'm certainly not planning on that at the moment...

- Finally, the chart just looks lovely!!

[professor pettigrew] 12/2/2013 12:37

PTO

Thank you. Very interesting points made from both posters. I think maybe I didn't quite explain the price forecast clearly. What I actually mean in all five stocks is a personal forecast for the price peak within the 3 years, not actually to say that, for example, PTO would trade at just £6 by end 2015. If for example the results are better than expected the £6 target could be reached within weeks or months.

I note that successful companies are usually led by management that constantly under promise and over deliver. I suspect this could be the case here, and would be more than happy to be proved wrong on price forecasts!

[tara7] 12/2/2013 12:29

PTO:

If you or I were investing a massive £3M a year for each of the last 5 years, we would no doubt be aiming at profits of at least £5M or £6M P/A going foreward.

I think that is just what we will see in the next few years.

Thus, I do agree with the above poster that your target price of just £6 is rather mean.

This company has around 200 staff and a fixed cost base.[extra software sales = very high margins]

As turnover jumps profits zoom.

[michaelsadvfn] 12/2/2013 12:15

PTO

First of all, as a shareholder, I'm happy to see PTO making your list.
What I don't quite understand is your £6 valuation 3 years down the line, unless you're being ultra-conservative.

It would imply a market cap of £50m. Profits of £2.5m with a sector PE of 20 would see PTO trading at £6.

We already have a broker forecast of £1.3m for 2013. That will, imo, be shot to pieces given the annual R&D spend of £3m coming to an end, sales of their 2 new software offerings soaring(pub2web 2H +130% higher than 2011 2H), and China not even factored in. USA office space also doubled to accommodate growth. Then we still have Brazil, India & Australia(bullish noises coming from management).

I'd be disappointed if PTO traded at £6 3 years down the line. I have no specific price targets in mind but if I did then £6 would not be one of them.

Good luck.