Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 10:22

Continuing to add small amounts.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 19:57

ADM off about 0.5% on the day, valued at 500M more than DLG atm.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 18:55

Had another small amount before the close.

[nicksoj] 07/3/2017 18:55

Agreed. Will be keeping a close eye on moj review. A rejig should give up a special div either as a new interim or in August...

[wllmherk] 07/3/2017 18:45

I'm also hoping to see this fall some more EI so I can top up. Excellent company with a tasty dividend, whats not to like. Ex dividend on Thursday might provide a good opportunity to add.


wllm

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 16:06

Was hoping for a sell in to the close Nick, not happening atm.

[nicksoj] 07/3/2017 14:31

Should hang around 328 ex div. Anything below is a ruddy bargain imo.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 13:22

nj, would have to defer to your knowledge, clearly have a very detailed
grasp.


My longer term optimism is based on brand perception, motor premium increases
hopefully driving extra business towards DLG. My own experience dealing
with the Company, and from friends and family.

[njb67] 07/3/2017 13:12

I like looking at long term trends to put a company's performance into perspective. You also get a sense of how the business is being managed.

Share holder returns:

Underlying dividend per share
2013 - 12.6p
2014 - 13.2p (up 0.6)
2015 - 13.8p (up 0.6)
2016 - 14.6p (up 0.8)
2017 - 15.2p (my conservative estimate of a further 0.6 increase)

Special dividend
2013 - 4p
2014 - 14p
2015 - 36.3p (includes circa 25p for disposal of holding)
2016 - 10p
2017 - 10p (again conservatively, the lowest return in the last three years)

This has been achieved by executing against their long term strategy which is reflected in a reduction in the combined operating ratio and improved margins. This remains a focus for DLG in 2017.

It is worth also noting the potential uplift in share holder returns from the recent changes in solvency calculations. In the interims, DLG reported that after the interim and special dividends, the solvency II capital cover ratio was 184% versus the Board's risk appetite of 140-180%. [EDIT: would have been 189% at year end without Ogden] This creates additional headroom for shareholder returns over and above the reversal of the Ogden one off hit in the 2017 results.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 12:51

Total, your calculation may be nearer the mark.

[njb67] 07/3/2017 12:45

6% yield or 6p/share special dividend?

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 12:43

nj, I'm working on 6% approx., that's on the cautious side.

[njb67] 07/3/2017 12:40

The Ogden change works out at circa 11p/share reduction in profit after tax in 2016. My read of the results is that this is a one-off hit and the company would expect to recover the majority of these profits in 2017. If this is the case, then we could reasonably expect further special returns next year (up from 10p/share this year) on top of the steadily increasing underlying dividend (circa 15.2p/share in 2017). Even if specials remained unchanged at 10p/share, this would still give a 2017 yield around 7.4%.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 12:34

A sell in to close please ) - apologies to anyone margined long.

[cousin jack] 07/3/2017 12:27

No thanks EI - there's enough doom in my average price paid of 344. Off topic, I see MANX is drifting again - 196 offer at the moment. I've increased my buy price to 195 in view of last weeks near miss.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 11:34

We want a bit more doom, let the anal ysts issue a few cautionary notes.

[nicksoj] 07/3/2017 11:31

Will be interesting to see where xdiv bottoms out. Good long there imo. ..I'm expecting actuarial tables to change positively for dlg.92 % COR. Fantastic! Imo

[linton5] 07/3/2017 11:19

Back in for me comrades

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 11:08

3.368 was my lowest, market usually overreacts. Lower short term would
suit me.

[dmf] 07/3/2017 10:45

Added @ 3.39

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2017 10:33

Adding in small lots.

[eaaxs06] 07/3/2017 08:02

Market wasn't that keen on the results.