Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2017 13:48

Was due a move.

[doug stamper] 31/1/2017 13:12

Pattern clearly suggests dlg heading for recent highs ahead of annual report.

Imo. Get in now or miss out at 28th February.
Did v well yesterday.dyor

[speedsgh] 30/1/2017 09:43

Peel Hunt: Direct Line is making gains -

Direct Line (DLGD) has seen growth in its car insurance division but that is expected to be offset by the cost of investment in software last year, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Andreas van Embden retained his ‘hold’ recommendation and cut his target price from 370p to 365p. The shares were trading flat at 351p at the time of writing.

‘Solid momentum in the motor business will be offset partly by one-off non-cash impairments of capitalised software costs in 2016 - we estimate c.£30 million - as the business digitalises further,’ he said.

‘We have reduced our target price...driven by the change in our estimates. The shares trade at 2017 price/earnings of 12x, broadly in line with the sector average but offer a more attractive 7% 2017 yield.’

[sporazene2] 27/1/2017 07:32

hopefully the delay is the result of some lobbying by DLG and et al

[kcsham] 25/1/2017 11:00

Macquarie Research?......

[sporazene2] 25/1/2017 08:10

More regarding my post last week

Direct Line Insurance Group’s shares declined on
Thursday after Macquarie Research downgraded the stock to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral’; and cut the target price to 345p from 295p.
The downgrade comes as the government is due on 31 January to announce a decision on the interest rate used to calculate discounts applied to personal injury compensation.
The Chancellor is expected to lower the current Ogden discount rate of 2.5% which is considered by many to be too high as it penalises claimants.
Macquarie said it understands Direct Line carries a margin covering the cost of a 100 basis reduction in the rate to 1.5%.
“However, we expect the Lord Chancellor to set the rate between 1% and 1.5%,” Macquarie said.
“Thus if the rate falls to below 1.5% then Direct Line’s reserves may require strengthening.”;
Macquarie predicts the new rate will cost the company £90m, in excess of the reserve margin the bank expects it currently holds.
More importantly, the use of this margin in large bodily injury reserves will mean reduced reserve releases in the future, the bank added.
“Currently we expect that Direct Line has benefitted from releasing the excess margin between 1.5% and 2.5% when a claim is settled. This will potentially not be available in the future.”
Direct Line is “especially sensitive” to changes in reserve releases as the group depends on this source of earnings for 70% of its operating profits.
Macquarie’s earnings forecasts for the company are 16% below consensus in 2017 and 26% below consensus in 2018. The bank expects consensus forecasts to fall should the discount rate reduce.
“With a negative catalyst looming for Direct Line, we expect Direct Line to underperform the wider non-life insurance sector at least until the new Ogden discount rate is announced,” the bank said.
“As such, we reduce our price target from 345p to 295p, as we factor in the increased uncertainty into our valuation through a higher cost of equity.”
Shares fell 1.28% to 347.70p at 1036 GMT.

[diku] 17/1/2017 13:33

Its those shares that have already corrected but tend to over react further to the downside when the overall markets correct...those are the ones to pick up for a good bounce back up...

[carer] 17/1/2017 13:30

It seems some shares in Uk are already corrected! with continuous dividends , there is no downside on this one , at worst it is a matter of high or low dividends or if there will be special dividends.

[diku] 13/1/2017 16:24

It won't be a bear market just a long awaited market correction of 8 - 10%...

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2017 16:20

With the next bear market about everything thing will get cheaper, always the
way.

Have held 35k in DLG previously, but not feeling that brave atm.

[diku] 13/1/2017 16:03

If the US markets do eventually correct then don't rule out 295p...or even 275p...just my opinion...that would be a good time to load up....

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2017 15:27

Lots of 500 atm, yes that small! )

[diku] 13/1/2017 11:42

How small amount?...100 or 1000 or 10000?...

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2017 11:32

Added another small amount, will leave it at that unless we go below 3.40.

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2017 10:32

Would love to be that precise!, but tbh just guess/estimating-
DLG looks value around these levels longer term, providing results and outlook
are as expected.

It is loathed atm, but that often (not always) gives a nice opportunity.

[carer] 13/1/2017 10:16

It is likely it will stabilize at 320, do not think it will go as far as 295.

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2017 07:52

Macquarie cut to Underperform 295 yesterday, looks on the low side to me.

[cwa1] 13/1/2017 07:36

FWIW Direct Line raised to hold at Hsbc

[essentialinvestor] 12/1/2017 23:17

sporazene, just read the FT comment and your previous post is correct.
I thought it was referring to tightening up on rules, rather than the
calculation metrics. Thanks for the information.

[jon123] 12/1/2017 13:16

I'll leave it on the books for 25 days see what happens

[essentialinvestor] 12/1/2017 13:09

Jon I'm only dancing, good luck with that, may well be available.
Looking at add a few more.

[jon123] 12/1/2017 12:47

put a cheeky buy in at 338 lol maybe it will get filled maybe not

[essentialinvestor] 12/1/2017 11:19

Think that is well known?, it's the tightening up on whiplash claims.
It should reduce motor insurance premiums.