Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 06/10/2016 11:14

Arf

I think you should know that buywell is a badly designed bot, which is just triggered by any debate about cash, share issues, or RNS's containing losses.

[arf dysg] 06/10/2016 10:26

February 30th, you may need to cover your eyes at this point, but it's in a good cause...




buywell, shouldn't you have put a comma after the "Yes" and a full stop after "rate" ? Furthermore, you shouldn't try to start a sentence with "But".

Anyway, "burnt" is a past participle and what you need is the past tense.

[buywell3] 06/10/2016 00:42

Yes in 5 years time at current trend rate

But how much cash is going to get burnt in the process ?

[gnnmartin] 05/10/2016 18:38

I've drifted up and down the half year report trying to see where the extra cash was spent, but not really seen where. All the words talk about costs being cut. I assume the financial soft shoe shuffle at the beginning of the year accounted for about half the extra cash outflow. I'll continue to look, but with not much urgency, because I don't have any money to put up, and I don't intend selling what I've got.

If the 40% extra revenues in July & August are typical of the new year (and not just a big jump on two exceptionally weak months), and if the cost savings that are said to be expected are real, and if they can pull the UK round, then I could persuade myself that they will be within sight of break even by the end of the year.

Last December I had written DEMG off. Now I think there is a good chance they will pull through.

[february 30th] 03/10/2016 21:07

There certainly isn't a negative trend, and getting three accounts just after the summer hiatus is good. Three more accounts in October would confirm the up trend.

As for funding, I'm guessing Deltex will be going for a loan. If they were going for a placing, it would make sense to have had it at the beginning of September, particularly given stock market uncertainty and the US election. For some reason Deltex have decided that 30 accounts is an important milestone for them.

[arf dysg] 03/10/2016 11:10

At the risk or repeating myself, one could be forgiven for saying that there's a positive trend.

[dj trading] 01/10/2016 14:37

Buywell for info - summary cashburn below - I posted on 1H results day
Significant increase in cashburn in 1H16 to 300k/month.
Historic burn rate around £200k/month
Cash as at 30/6/16 of £0.5m and post 1H placing raised £0.45m
I think the hat will need to be passed around again before Xmas
I'll let you do the Math!

Monthly cash burn
(Movement in cash balance + financing)

2010 £95k/month
2011 £157k/month
2012 £162k/month
2013 £197k/month
2014 £220k/month
2015 £180k/month
1H16 £300k/month!
dyor

[buywell3] 01/10/2016 01:57

From the results it would seem , present loss pattern could be stopped in around 5 years time

How much cash have they left ?

[arf dysg] 30/9/2016 17:09

That's a very interesting presentation of the data.

One could be forgiven for saying that there's a positive trend.

[february 30th] 29/9/2016 16:30

Here's the pattern of US account announcements since the beginning of the 2015. Notice no announcements in July or August of both years. There were also no account announcements in July and August of 2014. So I don't think there is any evidence of a slowdown. If once assumed that account announcements were poisson events - which one probably can't, because of seasonality - then you have an average of 1 new platform per month, and a 63% chance that at least one account is announced next month.

012015|X
022015|
032015|X
042015|X
052015|X
062015|X
072015|
082015|
092015|X
102015|
112015|XXX
122015|XX
012016|X
022016|
032016|
042016|XX
052016|XX
062016|XX
072016|
082016|
092016|XXX

Here's the quarterly picture:

Q12015|XX
Q22015|XXX
Q32015|X
Q42015|XXXXX
Q12016|X
Q22016|XXXXXX
Q32016|XXX

[ramnik007] 29/9/2016 14:06

We need more US accounts at faster pace.

[bigt20] 12/9/2016 04:04

O/T
NHS., doesnt have a clue about productivity, so here we are again with another bleat for cash in time for the Chancellors budget this autumn.

[yump] 09/9/2016 17:22

Arf

I think a consultant is like Park Lane, a registrar is Oxford Circus, a junior doctor is Vine Street and the nurses are up the Old Kent Road.

Hope that helps.

[arf dysg] 09/9/2016 17:21

February 30th (8398) "context, which should have made it obvous"

Maybe other people noticed the sentence and just ignored it. At least I'm paying you the compliment of wanting to understand what you wrote.

[hannahh] 09/9/2016 16:51

If you would like to hear Ewan Phillips, Chief Executive, present the interim results for Deltex and answer investors questions will we be hosting a webinar on Thursday 15th of September at 1pm.

In order to register please go to:

Thanks,
The Equity Development team

[february 30th] 09/9/2016 15:58

Arf Dysg,

There is such a thing a context, which should have made it obvous what I was talking about, but I am sorry about the mistake. The US is more of a production line than the UN.

Maybe you should just have editting priviledges on this forum, so you can correct typoes swiftly and eficiently.

[arf dysg] 09/9/2016 11:48

February 30th (8389)

"The US health system strikes me as being more a production line than in the US."

Wot?? Your sentence compares US with US .... so one of those should have been UK, perhaps. Which one?



yump (8388) "I get the impression from the 'lower' ranks (not consultants and registrars)"

No-one's ever explained this to me. What's a consultant, what's a registrar, what's a junior doctor (presumably neither of the previous two) and are there any other categories?

The times I've been in hospital (various older relatives needed treatment), I've heard these terms but never heard a statement of what they mean. The medical staff use all this jargon and don't for a moment realise that we in the non-medical world are going "WTF?"

[valueman6] 09/9/2016 11:23

Thanks Wigwammer - I guess 15p or £42m market cap (albeit with more cash injections) is not beyond reason. As a long term holder with a 12p average cost - I live in hope!

[valueman6] 09/9/2016 11:20

Thanks Feb - hadn't 'clicked' that the July 11th rns ref: St Thomas was referencing Lidco technology. I had a quick look on the LID website and they have a very different approach to DEMG, no time to get into it right now... been a long time holder of DEMG and happy to keep holding.

[wigwammer] 09/9/2016 10:25

Valueman -PE is one way of looking at it - though I suspect on the day this emerges with a £2m net profit, the market will be paying substantially more than 20x for it.Another way is to look at historic valuation markers. From memory, the previous peak here was just following the NICE recommendation and announcement of the pace and scale plan. Around 30p with circa 140m shares in issue, or market cap of £42m. That would equate to a price of 14.7p now, with 285m shares in issue.Why do I feel the historic peak is relevant? Because the £42m was the valuation investors priced in with the expectation of secure growth and underpenetration (I think ODM was used in only around 5% of the ops recommended by NICE). I think a similar picture is now emerging here - with a free cash flow tipping point emerging, and a vast market to penetrate.Arguably we could shoot for a higher valuation, because the US is a far larger market than the UK, and the business is far more diversified and derisked than in the past.

[doglover2003] 09/9/2016 09:06

From the interims it is worth noting that the UK performance is actually flattered by describing the fall as 36.2 per cent. As the there was a 6.7 per cent price imcrease the fall in volume terms was actually 40.2 per cent.

Quite staggering!,,,,,,, Lemmings lead the NHS.

[february 30th] 08/9/2016 22:20

Lidco has been a threat to Deltex in the UK, in the sense that the failure of their product to significantly improve outcomes, in the Optimise trial, has illogically rubbed off on Deltex.

However the recent study comparing Lidco and Deltex's offerings should create further distance between the two companies:

[valueman6] 08/9/2016 22:00

wigwammer - would be interested to know where you got +200% from.

My guess is that with say 100+ US platform accounts we might be approaching a £2m profit (providing fixed costs stay the same), say 150 platform accounts allowing for increased overheads. If the share price goes to 15p = market cap of £43m = PE of 21.

Whats the size of the market... according to the AHA 3100 in a hospital system
hxxp://www.aha.org/research/rc/stat-studies/fast-facts.shtml.

So 150 accounts = 5% market share ... doable but will take time and provided a competitor doesn't beat them to it... Is Lidco a threat ... anyone else out there?

[valueman6] 08/9/2016 22:00

wigwammer - would be interested to know where you got +200% from.

My guess is that with say 100+ US platform accounts we might be approaching a £2m profit (providing fixed costs stay the same), say 150 platform accounts allowing for increased overheads. If the share price goes to 15p = market cap of £43m = PE of 21.

Whats the size of the market... according to the AHA 3100 in a hospital system
hxxp://www.aha.org/research/rc/stat-studies/fast-facts.shtml.

So 150 accounts = 5% market share ... doable but will take time and provided a competitor doesn't beat them to it... Is Lidco a threat ... anyone else out there?