Communisis Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 13/5/2016 13:48

Apparently there wil be no trading update until half year results.

[robards] 13/5/2016 12:36

I am willing to concede there's something in what you say, but my "really" was directed at the idea that this is "very risky now". I can't understand what reason there is for saying that. Your criticism is that with better management and communication this would be trading on a higher rating. What's the reason for saying that even on this low rating (single figure p/e, a price that suggests stagnation and decline rather than continued growth in earnings) these are "very risky"?

[sphere25] 13/5/2016 11:03

It's daft comments like the one by Edmundshaw that keeps my posting on bulletin boards to a minimum.

Have you noted the 7 year long bull market?? QE forever! Monumental bull party - everyone invited (except CMS shareholders of course!) Volatile at times of course, but the indices charts have still been bottom left to top right. This company has therefore been given EVERY CHANCE to merit a much higher rating, but it's numpties like you who will actually defend the ridiculously low rating! Absolutely astounding stuff really!

Yes, all those BIG long term contracts and strategy that the market chooses to ascribe a comical rating for! Companies like this should be trading at double the valuation. Shareholders should have been rewarded with a great deal more. Management here can't even be bothered to reassure shareholders with a simple statement confirming that trading is ok, when it is blatently apparent that there are nervous owners of stock here.

It doesn't bother me if this company gets a takeover tomorrow or puts a warning out, but what I do find staggering is how shareholders stand idley by tolerating value destruction.

[edmundshaw] 13/5/2016 10:09

What utter claptrap.

Companies have good times and bad, market conditions have been volatile for years now thanks to all the debt and the ups and downs of the EU, euro and banks. To lay that at the door of a "muppet" CEO is just facile, and scapegoating.

Try looking at the way he has built the business up over the last few years, winning big long term contracts and reinventing it for a changing, digital world when the underlying paper business was in decline.

[cutlosses] 13/5/2016 07:18

What " form" are you referring to Sphere?

[hvs1] 12/5/2016 16:53

how's the old junk mail doing today

oh dear and lol

dahn dahn deeper and dahn, status quo, lol

[sphere25] 12/5/2016 16:24

You need to add abit more emphasis RobardS. It's more like this....

"Raaaahhheaaallly!!?!!"

You don't have to believe a word I say, look at the long term chart to see what the market thinks of Blundell. First thing you do to have a chance of a decent return is remove muppet value destroyers like him.

[sphere25] 12/5/2016 16:04

They don't have to put out an interim statement now, but they really should have taken the opportunity to reassure investors, even with a small statement.

Would have been a compelling long trade back up to the recent highs on such a statement, but there is now a massive cloud hanging over trading here. I know some will say they have to disclose to the market any material change in trading, but Blundell is incompetent. Blundell has form in disappointing the market, so I wouldn't put it past him to put out a profit warning in due course, post the AGM of course.

Chart says mid 30's is a possibility, but the market might have already discounted Blundell. I'll certainly be watching to see how trading pans out here, but it's very risky now.

[harrogate] 12/5/2016 16:03

I just don't see why they couldn't say in line if trading is in line - why wouldn't you - most companies say something at the AGM - they are in communications and this is one of the few opportunities to say something to people. I can't be anything but negative about the lack of a statement now and I can sense that they are behind but "feel" they can pull it back by August. Not full of glee with this investment.

[rivaldo] 12/5/2016 15:50

Indeed isis. There wasn't a statement the previous year, so last year's was presumably due to something specific, though I can only really see that perhaps they wanted to clarify the AXA contract had started well.

The section about the euro last year highlights that this year should see a reverse - positive - effect for CMS.

As edmundshaw says, we can surmise that trading is therefore in line, as anything materially different - better or worse - would have to be reported.

[isis] 12/5/2016 15:37

There was a statement last year.

[owenski] 12/5/2016 15:35

Not invested here, but have been watching, would like to see a definite change of trend. Agree, the market disagrees with me but I equally don't fight the market. Will wait to see if the market changes its mind :-)

[zho] 12/5/2016 15:22

Disappointed that there was no statement today. I've also emailed CMS to ask whether they intend to issue an update on trading.

[dahhad] 12/5/2016 14:53

Unfortunately the market doesn't seem to agree with you owenski and today's lack of a statement may be seen as a weakness. If things were in line, why would the company not take the chance to score a few PR points? Still a believer but even more long term now! At least my reinvested dividend will convert to more shares!!

[owenski] 12/5/2016 13:57

SIV may not represent a sector problem, just an SIV problem.

SP at CMS has been declining for some time, SIV - IMO - was overpriced.

Just my opinion but the business here seemed in good shape, just unloved, as such in absence of any update confirming otherwise, the downside here seems priced in.

[edmundshaw] 12/5/2016 13:44

If there were a downturn of 10% or more (or even a bit less) I would expect such an update as mandatory. It follows that CMS is doing considerably better than St Ives, and is either doing OK, or they are not being forthcoming about some possibly short term minor weakness that they might hope will correct.

Whatever, they cannot be suffering like St Ives. Perhaps the long term nature of many of their contracts is standing them in good stead... or perhaps their strategy and execution is just better than that of St Ives. Guess we have to wait and see...

[mikeelkin] 12/5/2016 12:35

I emailed the company expressing surprise at the lack of a trading update this morning and asking them was there an intention to update the market in the near future. So far no response.

The AGM will be in full swing now and regrettably I am unable to attend. If anybody went any snippets they have gleaned would be well received.

Edit: They responded whilst I was typing the above. There is no intention to release any update on trading until the half year results at the beginning of August. Well from that one would presume they are not suffering the kind of downturn in trading that St. Ives have had and the commentary from the results in March is still valid. That's the positive spin .......

[zho] 12/5/2016 07:26

Was hoping for an AGM statement this morning: last year's seems to have been issued at 7am.

[masurenguy] 11/5/2016 13:42

The 15% fall in the shareprice over the past 17 days followed the profit warning issued by St Ives on April 25th. Clearly we will have to wait for tomorrows AGM statement to see if CMS has noted a similar downturn in business that might negatively impact their performance expectations in 2016. If that was the case I would have expected them to have released an earlier trading update announcing this.

The last outlook statement in March was as follows: "We are encouraged by increasing demand for the Group's integrated marketing services. In 2016 contract wins, together with our new business pipeline, position Communisis for another year of profitable growth. The Board is focussed on the creation of value; meaning bottom-line profit translating to improving free cash flow and progressively lower debt. We are encouraged by increasing demand for the Group's integrated marketing services. In 2016 contract wins, together with our new business pipeline, position Communisis for another year of profitable growth. The Board is focussed on the creation of value; meaning bottom-line profit translating to improving free cash flow and progressively lower debt."

So no news should be good news although you can never be sure these days and management here is still in the process of rebuilding their credibility after some previous performance shortfalls over the past couple of years. I doubt that there have been any "leaks" over tomorrows statement since the average daily trading volume since the St Ives announcement on 25th April has been 127K, which is circa 50% below the average daily volume of 250K over the past 3 months.

[hvs1] 11/5/2016 13:33

still going dahn clowns, lol

[junior21] 11/5/2016 13:12

I was just thinking that myself RobardS.

I'm not 100% certain but I don't recall previous occurences where the news released has led me to think the company was leaky.