Colt Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[robwt] 12/5/2015 19:49

Watch out tomorrow...see how they run. 177p before the next results.

[robwt] 12/5/2015 15:49

They are shaking the tree and hoovering them up, little parcels that make a mockery out of Colt and Fidelity.

They are then being sold at the end of the session. The float gets smaller but someone is buying them.

[palace andy] 12/5/2015 15:18

is this traded on other exchanges? Would that be impacting the price we see on the LSE?

[dickbush] 12/5/2015 14:41

I'm not aware that they are breaking any laws but there is no question in my mind that they are making the price anything they like when there is little volume. They would no doubt argue that they are trying to find a price at which two-way volume is generated.

[robwt] 12/5/2015 12:21

Amazing!!! If Colt shares are not being manipulated, I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat.

Watching the trades and spreads it is plain to see that the Market makers are as bent as a butcher's hook.

[dickbush] 08/5/2015 14:40

After I closed my long trade I shorted a few. The share price was pretty close to where I thought it would be by the time we saw the third qtr IMS.

[dealy] 08/5/2015 11:12

just been on a business trip and like everyone else used a huge amount of telecoms services. we are all addicted to data. Colt is present in all levels of the data conduit. Just have to be patient here and resist hitting the sell button.

[dickbush] 08/5/2015 08:25

That was fun. I got some away for a 12p/share gain over a short period. That cheered me up a bit.

[dealy] 08/5/2015 08:07

looks like we are getting a delayed reaction to that today!

[dickbush] 07/5/2015 10:22

Equinix in discussions with Telecity re a possible offer at 1145p. That's an EV/EBITDA of 16 times 2014 EBITDA and end year net debt.

[robwt] 07/5/2015 08:59

Bhasin & his numpty board could leave Colt today with a huge fat pay packets courtesy of Fidelity's ineptness and us shareholders. Colt have lost billions and they need investigating, how can a company operate for years and years without growing.

I will vote for any government that puts a STOP to reward for failure.

If it were investigated, I am convinced that the dinosaur Fidelity it is just a mega giantic Ponzi Scheme.

[mirko] 07/5/2015 08:30

Uppppss. The Indian has driven everything against the wall.

[mirko] 07/5/2015 08:12

Nobody wants Colt. The Indian has drüben everything avainst the Wall.

[dickbush] 05/5/2015 11:28

I'm totally in agreement with you, robwt, with regards the senior management and RB in particular, but no one owning 62.5% of the shares could possibly be happy with the company's operating performance over the last four years. It's not rocket science to understand that either the company is poorly managed or it simply isn't a good business. It may be that the hiring of Carl Grivner is a sign of future change at the top, but IMO Colt is being tarted up for sale. With a near full recovery to peak EBITDA in prospect this year (subject only to RB's performance pay target), I imagine Fidelity would want to see that recovery in the public domain and in the share price before negotiating a price for its acquisition. Assuming the stock market doesn't take a dive I expect the shares to be at a record level for this bull market by the time we see the IMS for the 3rd qtr.

[robwt] 05/5/2015 09:49

Can it ever get anywhere near the 177p they valued them in the 1 for 3. Fidelity are useless. Billions lost over the years, shareholder's have been well and truly conned. Unlike the deadwood like Bhasin, we all paid through the nose for shares in this lame duck.

[robwt] 05/5/2015 09:49

With no proper market in the shares and no sign that Fidelity are doing much about changing things. Colt has become a stagnant mess. The jam tomorrow no longer applies, because it isn't even worth saying 'Jam anytime soon'.

It takes something to go for years without sparkling at anytime. The list of also rans who have headed Colt in the past have disappeared into oblivion, Bhasin is possibly one of the worst in a rotten bunch. Where do they find them!

[dickbush] 05/5/2015 09:32

Thanks, palace andy. Carl Grivner sounds like a good hire. A possible replacement for RB?

[palace andy] 05/5/2015 09:15

Citi

. Colt expects to maintain its focus on cost reduction and to be modestly cash flow positive for the full year 2015 (we estimate FCF of +€19m). Our forecast revisions are minor overall but demonstrate some shift in mix. Re EBITDA, stronger KVH and savings at IT Services offset lower expected performance from the others, notably Voice Services. We regard Colt as an asset play and regard the renewed cost control efforts and plans to improve gross margin including by purging low margin activities as positive.

[palace andy] 05/5/2015 09:15

Citi

. Colt expects to maintain its focus on cost reduction and to be modestly cash flow positive for the full year 2015 (we estimate FCF of +€19m). Our forecast revisions are minor overall but demonstrate some shift in mix. Re EBITDA, stronger KVH and savings at IT Services offset lower expected performance from the others, notably Voice Services. We regard Colt as an asset play and regard the renewed cost control efforts and plans to improve gross margin including by purging low margin activities as positive.

[palace andy] 05/5/2015 09:13

latest broker comments

Deutsche

Colt plans to "remain focused on profitable growth and cost transformation and expects to be modestly cashflow positive for FY15". This appears to be below our expectations though the FY out-turn of FCF is notoriously difficult to predict at Colt due to ‘lumpy’ investment projects. Whilst the Co has recently flagged a much more disciplined approach to capital deployment (which we applaud), the longer term outlook for growth in relation to capital intensity is difficult to determine. A recovering global economy should be good news as corporates start to consider new investment projects, however the enterprise market remains very competitive with mobile and cable TV operators increasingly encroaching. Colt Group is an operationally levered play on a recovering enterprise segment, so evidence of a firm growth recovery, attached to a ‘normal’ capex outlook, would be helpful. We are naturally wary of false dawns but this morning’s statement suggests it is still dark outside, at least with regard to a sustainable growth recovery. We await greater visibility before becoming more constructive.

[palace andy] 05/5/2015 08:51

Some background info on Carl Grivner, the new EVP at Colt.

hxxp://www.lightreading.com/ethernet-ip/ethernet-services/colt-hires-former-pacnet-ceo-/d/d-id/715438?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

[dickbush] 04/5/2015 09:49

Next results due on 31st July. Last year's 2nd qtr was very weak. I expect a double digit increase in y/y EBITDA based on the first qtr.

[dickbush] 01/5/2015 12:22

Note that IT Services revenue declined Euro3.5 mil or 17.5% to Euro16.8 mil. Good. That side of the business had a negative EBITDA of Euro25.8 mil in 2014. So any pruning in that area should be "a good thing"

[dickbush] 01/5/2015 09:49

palace andy, I think Colt IS being managed for its acquisition. Acquiring KVH meant Fidelity wasn't left with a very small, unquoted Japanese telecom company while also helping Colt's EBITDA and total valuation. In addition, the company has given up on ever-expanding capex and ever-increasing negative free cash flow. Our pig is getting some lipstick.

[palace andy] 01/5/2015 08:42

A comment today from JP Morgan...how much longer until a takeover?!

We recognise the EBITDA valuation as attractive and also the recent progress made to reposition Colt towards areas where it can differentiate more on service than price. However, we believe it will always be difficult for Colt to sustainably generate meaningful cash flow as a standalone in the enterprise telecoms market, due to challenging demand/supply characteristics, and inferior economies of scale vs its competition.