Colt Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 25/5/2015 18:45

£3/share would be 2.36 times my 2014 Revenue guesstimate and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 11.4 times an almost complete recovery in EBITDA. I'd never say never, but it is very, very unlikely IMO, hence my comments. However, I will be delighted to be wrong. 230p as per dealy's suggestion seems a reasonable price this year.

[robwt] 24/5/2015 19:13

DB...It may be wishful thinking that the report has credibility. I don't believe that it would take two bidders with big egos to value Colt at £2.8 billion.

There are a some big players out there who could buy Colt, if Fidelity will sell. Colt's share price is so low through bad management and zero promotion. Us long term holders do not realise exactly how much Colt would be worth to the right bidder.

[dickbush] 24/5/2015 17:57

Level 3's Net Debt/(trend)EBITDA appears to be circa 4 1/2 times at the end of the first qtr which would definitely be considered dangerous in the UK. However, it doesn't seem to matter in the U.S. as long as you are an acquisition machine generating big fees for various banks.

Much as I would love to see it, I can't imagine anyone bidding £3/share for Colt this year unless there are two bidders with big egos.

[robwt] 24/5/2015 11:21

Thanks DB & Mirko, really positive bit of news.

Highly illiquid stock it is and that alone explains why it trades at peanuts. The manipulators of the stock will be taking a risk playing around with Colt shares if there is truth in the report. The share price has been depressed to a current level that values the company at £1.4 billion. The share price is super cheap, but Colt could not be bought for such a price in this current market.

There is a tiny float available and the spread is not high so the shares are not really illiquid, they are not available. However, illiquid stocks can rise up in price extremely quickly if there is any sustained buying pressure. Remember Porsche/Volkswagen

That stock rocketed to unbelievable heights...it won't happen with Colt, but the share price could rise significantly, double or more because the company is valued so lowly.

[dickbush] 23/5/2015 21:32

The EV of Level 3 is circa £31 billion but there is not enough information on the most recent acquisition, tw, to figure out what 2014's EBITDA would have been if tw had been consolidated for the full year. Just taking the published 2014 EBITDA, the historic EV/EBITDA is 16 times. Annualising the first quarter, that drops to circa 13 times. Either way it could afford to pay a hefty premium over Colt's current valuation.

[mirko] 23/5/2015 15:43

Dotcom survivor Colt Group made a return to London gainers board on Friday on hopes of a bid from the US. Level 3 Communications would be an ideal buyer for Colt, analysts at Cowen & Co said.With Level 3 having paid down debt from the 2011 purchase of Global Crossing, its management should now look at tackling its poor performance in the highly fragmented European corporate broadband market, the broker said."As the pieces come together in the US, Level 3's next major initiative could be to look to European M&A," Cowen told clients. "Colt's mostly continental-focused network makes for an ideal complementary footprint both from a long-haul and metro-fibre perspective."European regulators are taking an increasingly relaxed view of consolidation in a telecommunications market dominated by incumbents and local operators, said Cowen. It argued that Colt is one of just a few pan-European providers within Level 3's price range.Colt spent three years of the dotcom boom as a member of the FTSE 100 with its market value peaking in early 2000 at more than £26bn. That had fallen to £1.4bn on Friday with the highly illiquid stock squeezed 1.6 per cent higher to 151.4p.

[dickbush] 22/5/2015 15:47

Thanks, mirko.

[robwt] 21/5/2015 16:56

6 million shares in three big trades at 149.6p. Without doubt the same buyer/seller...£10 million trade on the same day.

A huge trade in Colt shares. Good to see, I think!

[palace andy] 21/5/2015 16:54

perhaps FMR just transferring shares around again?

[dickbush] 21/5/2015 16:28

OK. So who sold the 2 million just before the close?

[palace andy] 21/5/2015 14:45

Yep, that's me out, I could not take it any longer :)

[dickbush] 21/5/2015 14:37

4.4 million shares sold at 149.6p.

[dickbush] 20/5/2015 14:22

From Bloomberg

In a busy 24 hours for this sector (telecom), Altice has agreed to buy 70 percent of Suddenlink Communications. The French telecommunications company clearly has big aspirations in the U.S., even Time Warner is said to have been on the receiving end of a takeover approach. Not to be outdone, Liberty Global's John Malone said a potential tie-up with Vodafone would be a "great fit."

[dickbush] 20/5/2015 10:15

CWC reported decent results for its year to 31st March and very good results for its Columbus acquisition which are not consolidated in its EBITDA. Combining the two sets of EBITDA (Columbus through December 31st), the historic EV/EBITDA is 8 times. This is the kind of rating that Colt could be on if it ever got its act together.

BT is on an historic EV/EBITDA of 7 times.

[palace andy] 20/5/2015 08:45

hxxp://www.lightreading.com/optical/100g/colt-adds-infinera-to-european-supercore/d/d-id/715811?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

[dickbush] 14/5/2015 09:51

FYI. I've never seen or heard of this guy but I have a similar worry.

[palace andy] 13/5/2015 17:33

I agree robwt, I'm hoping he is devoting more time to make it more attractive to a buyout. About time too.

[robwt] 13/5/2015 17:09

Perhaps Abby sees the real value of the fundamentals within Colt. With its customer base and infrastucture Colt should be fying, the share price should be 300p at least.

However, Fidelity have allowed it to be badly managed for years. That along with the small float of shares available not a hint of a dividend and no options, not willing to sell it, the stock has no appeal to the market, hence the company has no followers.

If we ever make any real dosh out of it, it will be well deserved.

[palace andy] 13/5/2015 16:48

I think so! To me it shows that Abby wants someone paying more attention on what is going on with Colt. What his aims are, I don't know.

[dickbush] 13/5/2015 16:37

Is that good news?

[palace andy] 13/5/2015 08:53

Interesting........

I told you a lot of things were happening within Fidelity now that Abby has taken over. Simon Haslam, Chairman of Moonray Investors (the private capital side of Fidelity International) is stepping aside from this role and other day to day Fidelity duties to focus more on his role as Chairman of Colt.