Close Enh Ii Share Discussion Threads

[badtime] 12/4/2013 11:00

still stock available at 1.355

[badtime] 12/4/2013 10:58

lol...if u had a chance of getting 180p plus....the share price would be a tad higher

[tiltonboy] 12/4/2013 10:57

The NAV is what you are going to get, that already accounts for the doubling of the performance.

[papy02] 12/4/2013 10:53

That's thrown me as well Haydock.

Unless /s at the end of erstwhile2's post is a smiley.

I'd welcome clarification.

[haydock] 12/4/2013 09:55

Was your previous post incorrect then ? Not as stated 145p ?
Actually nearer 186p?
Any other comments ?
Cheers Hay

[haydock] 12/4/2013 09:27

I am clear on all that, but I still have one question.
What was that figure 143p NAV & is it the real figure we are dealing with x2.

I have always thought the other figures given were only illustrations of a level playing field.
If they did not trade & change the fund, what did Close & all those directors do for so many years to earn all those vast remunerations?

I held for 5.5yrs & sold for C/G in Feb.

[papy02] 12/4/2013 09:10

Haydock,

I take this, from the Apr 10th RNS, at face value

Based on the values of the commodities as at 28 March 2013, taking into account month end values of the commodities for the preceding month ends in the averaging period and assuming these values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the Company, the redemption proceeds per Share on the Redemption Date would be 145 pence.

Given the Offer is currenty 137p, there is opportunity to make 8p, or 5.8% turn (ignoring trading cost) by the June 14th(?) redemption date.

But as commented above you are taking on Credit Risk of whether the Debt Securities held by CED will actually pay out on the June redemption date (some of the 5 banks are pretty ropey).

So it's a judgement whether that is a reasonable risk/reward. I'd be very grateful for any comments on the likely Credit Risk at this point - I held CED way back but have not tracked the status since.

[haydock] 12/4/2013 08:33

Totally ignorant of the finer points of how this will work.
However since this has locked in several months by December & in the interim we have:

NAV per Share per the Financial Statements 143.99

Does this mean that payments are in the range of 143X2=186p
£1.86 per unit ?
Or am I as usual just too dense to be able to see the wood from the trees ?

[praipus] 11/4/2013 22:07

Half year results


Erstwhile2 are you positioned to counter credit risk in any particular way?

[badtime] 11/4/2013 13:26

Thnx for that praps..I might add a few more but only up to a comfortable limit ..more to do with my own feeling of less opportunities elsewhere and that its reasonably short term

[praipus] 11/4/2013 12:44

I suffer from dithering at this point....tempted to buy a shed load more but you just know that a mysterious massive commodity crash will arise and I will spend the next 8-9 years trying to rebuild my life and finances all over again!

Happy to hold, I try and follow the arbs in and out.

Been tinkering with the ADVFN Black and Scholes Model


If the share price is any indicator of value...HV (historic volatility) over 50 days is 7.86% so it is in theory priced about right IMHO

[praipus] 11/4/2013 12:40

Ubique (latin for everywhere)

[badtime] 11/4/2013 11:19

i didnt know u were still holding praps...given the short timescale i am tempted to add

[praipus] 11/4/2013 11:09

Short Wheat, Sugar, Copper and Silver so partialy hedged.

[badtime] 11/4/2013 00:57

Interesting.....we now see a figure of 145 as against the previous 148....still not long to go now

[badtime] 10/4/2013 12:05

Well Cyprus seems to hav com off the front page and still we hav the potential for a reasonable return/short term play .. Hmmm

[badtime] 26/3/2013 15:57

Thanx..I posted on the infamous SHA thread today but no reply..I am but a small player lol

[smarm] 26/3/2013 15:16

badtime - after Cyprus, Senior debt means diddlysquat. I think a few people are running for the hills.

S

[badtime] 20/3/2013 13:00

Surprised to c this slip given we still seem on course and getting nearer the final day

[smarm] 18/2/2013 09:54

I am out today. I see no reason to risk 20% in order to make 8% from here.

S

[haydock] 17/2/2013 22:05

Thats the plan for cap gain reasons.Next years not this years, but i could think about that, & lock some in now?
Thanks for making me think about that.

I have never been able to work out what the final fig will be.
Although i have seen folk say it might not be far above the 140 mark.
The downside risk seems to be with the cash in the counter party banks.