Candover Investments Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 04/6/2015 14:01

Looks set to keep falling at least until expro results end of June I guess.

[skyship] 14/5/2015 14:11

Asmo - yes, sorry about that, but was merely intended to attract BT with his estate management skills!

BT....my beach hut at Southwold (not Bognor) is actually worth more than my chateau here in SW France!

Ox - agreed, could already be cheap; however one needs to assess how quickly they are going to be able to sell down their holdings. At the moment I just don't have a handle on it, so have been buying BPM & LMS instead.

[badtime] 14/5/2015 11:05

Yes Asmo but he tells a good story from his hut on Bognor beach.

[asmodeus] 14/5/2015 10:58

I fear you are succumbing to horticultural hyperbole, Sky. :)

[its the oxman] 14/5/2015 10:39

What is seriously cheap? Are we not in that area already. Not holding so would be interested in your thoughts. Regards Ox.

[skyship] 13/5/2015 14:34

Hi BT - just finished lunch on the SW-facing terrace overlooking a bed full of gaura, hibiscus, phlomis, caryopteris, helianthemum, potentilla, rudbeckia, ecchinacea, cistus, heuchera etcetcetc.... many of course already in full bloom. So well worth the hard work digging through rock and clay to please the wife with a new bed!!!

Also overlooks laurel hedges which are bursting with new growth - time to call the excellent young French guy who will strim the borders and cut all the hedges for E280 for 1.5days work. I think I pay over the odds but he always does a good job and takes all the detritus away with him.

As to CDI - also keeping a weather eye; but they will have to be seriously cheap for me to get back in here.

[badtime] 12/5/2015 20:41

Also keeping an eye on it

[n0rbie] 12/5/2015 12:44

It popped up on my radar, well below NAV and oil price has been recovering quite nicely.

[its the oxman] 11/5/2015 13:58

Any views on whether this is a good buy now. Looking a bit forgotten possibly at around 320p?

[asmodeus] 10/4/2015 20:36

In for the long term - as recommended by Mr Buffet - and various Judges.

[topvest] 10/4/2015 18:32

Disappointing results and "bad-luck" head winds:

EXPRO - Exposed to oil and gas
Parques Reunidos - Doing well but exposed to Euro devaluation post year-end
Stork BV - Good company, but exposed to oil and gas and Euro depreciation
Technogymn - Doing well, but exposed to Euro devaluation
Hilding Anders - Doing well but small and hit by the Rouble

In summary, ALL their investments seem to be on the wrong side of volatility at the moment. Oh well, I suppose it works just as strongly the other way round when things bounce back.

Overall though it's very disappointing that they still have net debt and haven't started paying dividends to holders yet. Patience still required.

[skyship] 08/4/2015 08:07

From Chairman's Statement - 26th March:
=======================================

Whilst 2014 has seen an improvement in the trading performance of the portfolio and a series of smaller realisations by Arle, the impact of the recent fall in oil prices has adversely impacted on the valuation of Expro, our largest investment, and potentially delayed its realisation in the near term. As the portfolio becomes ever more concentrated, it is this type of external systemic shock which can adversely impact on our sole objective to optimise the long term value of our investments by returning cash to shareholders as soon as is practical. We will continue to track Arle’s progress over the year ahead as it manages and prepares to realise the remainder of the portfolio.

[its the oxman] 06/3/2015 09:24

If nav was 545p as of Dec 31st am I right in saying presumably it is lower now or do people think otherwise?

[jgh03] 26/2/2015 12:34

By my calculations Expro represents 192p of that 545p NAV. It would take a further 50% write down in Expro plus adverse currency movements of 15% on the entire portfolio before the NAV fell to the current offer price of 365p. It seems low risk to me, but with plenty of upside. Just less clarity than before of the timetable for exit.

[skyship] 26/2/2015 12:08

So, today's Finals show the Dec'14 NAV has fallen from 715p to 545p; that's a 32% discount for the 370p offer price.

The markdown is of course in their EXPRO holding.

That discount has its attractions, however the ongoing concern is not only the valuation there; but also just how marketable is that asset in the new Oil/Gas environment!

Perhaps the current price of 360p-370p is about right...

[jaws6] 05/2/2015 13:01

H Eagle
Thanks. forgot that Disney figures to add.

[horndean eagle] 04/2/2015 18:32

Worth putting into perspective. CDI now trading circa NAV even if Expro written down to zero. On flipside Disney figures very good and that bodes well for the theme parks. Should be a decent bump up on IPO. I think Expro gets taken over by Halliburton in the interim. Will be a write down on last valuation but still a decent amount.

[skyship] 03/2/2015 17:19

Not yet...situation re EXPRO obviously still a concern

[badtime] 03/2/2015 16:40

Going to buy back in? :)

[skyship] 03/2/2015 16:29

Director Malcolm Fallen buys 1488 shares @ 367.6p. Only £5500; but very interesting nevertheless; surely indicative of insider knowledge that at this level CDI offers upside potential:

[skyship] 23/12/2014 11:17

That said, hedge fund Ironsides seeming to be extending their interest and they are worth following - or at least they were in the old days of massive gains from the Split trusts...

[skyship] 23/12/2014 11:07

A few intriguing trades today:

# 10k @ 396p
# 10k @ 398p
# 7.5k @ 401p

Could presage a bounce - but in no mood to chance it as without any
real knowledge of what is going on under the bonnet it would be nothing
more than a pure punt!

[horndean eagle] 11/12/2014 20:03

Expro has $2bn of debt. It could end up being in big trouble as it already paying very high rates of interest on this debt (10% in some cases). Refinance is due in the next couple of years. You can download quarterly results from their website if interested.