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Candover Investments Share Discussion Threads
Showing 751 to 774 of 775 messages
|Buttanc - tks good fundy view - my fib trader target of 145-150 similar.
Will be cool to see if total returns end up there.|
|buttanc - thnx for that...|
|There is a useful figure for debt repayment in the analyst presentation on the website. It says:
Repayment of the outstanding loan is subject to a minimum return of
1.4x. Full repayment would dilute year end NAV by c.7pps.
So I assume that NAV per share would have been 156p after debt repayment.
I though about selling today, but on this NAV the share price seems too low. Short of a collapse in the share price of Parques Reunidos, the eventual payout will be significantly more than 120p.|
It doesn't look as if your figures above include the £2.3m positive difference between trade receivables and payables.
From memory I think the minimum CDI have to pay on the loan is approx £40m so that lops approx £5m off NAV at completion and of course running costs.|
|Just had a quick look at why my year end NAV was on the low side (£1.51) and have noticed that the valuation metric to value Parques and Technogym has changed from 93.5% of listed price to 95% of listed price since 30th June.
I'm going to suggest this was beyond my control to spare my blushes!|
|145-150p at a guess - not bad if you got in at c.100p|
|I could be wildly out here, but I think the current assets are:
£27.5m - Parques Reunidos
£ 2.3m - nett cash
£ 1.9m - other investments
The holding in Expro has been diluted by 98%, so no meaningful write-backs will be seen.
This gives £31.7m or 145p per share.
There will be finance, and debt repayment costs to come off this figure (I believe), so that probably takes us back into the 130's.
The big unknown is whether historic tax losses can be used, and if they can, what would they be worth. There looks to be over £250m of accumulated losses on the balance sheet, but how much of that could potentially be available?
I wonder if somebody like Gresham House might be interested? They like basket cases!
Would love somebody to shoot down my figures.|
|How much do you think shareholders will eventually receive then, assuming values stay the same and its just exit costs to come? Management have never given any guidance and continue to be silent on the prospect. With the Chairman going I would not be surprised to hear of extra costs coming out of the wood work. This company is built on complexity and leverage, rather than simplicity and prudence.|
|Cheers Tilton - need to brush up my Latin :-)|
|OK, misread. Thanks. Looks to me that Candover may well come back to life to utilise tax losses.|
|Over 10p higher than I expected (but doesn't take account of min finance costs) - interesting Arle washing their hands and dishing the Expro and the remaining Parques shares out to shareholders in specie.|
|They won't distribute shares to you. They will move from Arle to Candover.|
|Not impressed that they are distributing shares in Parques. I can't hold shares in a Spanish listed entity, and don't want to. Expro is a different matter, but surely we should get the option for cash instead. Really frustrating company this one. £9.5m of admin and finance costs are destroying shareholder value.
Never fails to disappoint!|
|Prelims (see Header) show 31st Dec'16 NAV at 163p....and rising with the PR price. Also the BoD seeing whether they can extract some value from the tax losses. Sp still looks to be behind the curve.
Candover* Investments plc
Preliminary unaudited results for the year ended 31st December 2016
* NAV per share of 163p at 31st December 2016 representing a 10% increase
(15p) over the second half, but a 33% decrease (80p) compared to the prior
year (31st December 2015: 243p)|
|Actually there was some good news. They were up 1.6% today, and have climbed steadily fro 90p to 115 since December (2016).|
|Started on the wine too early.|
Not certain which drugs you are on, but that is the announcement from 10th January!|
|Anyone brave enough to take another stab at the NAV after today's good news:
Candover has disposed of the balance of its interest in Technogym for cash
proceeds of approximately EUR9.5 million (GBP8.3 million). Candover's interest in
Technogym was valued at GBP7.1 million in its unaudited accounts for the period
ended 30 June 2016.|
|PR at the highest since IPO and first quarter results just announced.
|I've been looking at the Electra annual report. An interesting observation. Candover sold their stake in Innovia for £33M in April 2014. It's now worth £80M. Nice move!|
|No worries Skyship - its uncommon but not unheard of for a cont trg to become a reversal - strong news, sentiment etc. Your charts may have added a little interest too :) Its nr a base either way so when the all important sentiment lifts it will rise. Best of luck there.|
|LM - Thnx for all of that hard work on UAI. I must say I think the Fundamentals dictate against a return to your suugested Buy Level of 132p-140p. We are already at a 40% discount; so a drop back to a 50% discount is highly improbable. I'm pleased to see that the 160p level is holding; so am hoping for a break of the CT to the upside.
In the meantime I bought into TEF this week and the 18,13,5 True Strenth Indicator assisted me in the decision process. I posted that over on the TEF thread.|
|Regarding TSI(18,13,5) being an accurate monthly lagging indicator ie a 'post-tell'.
I would add that MF divergence off a prior buyzone, (ie base buying off an old btm technical level), also denoted by a hammer candle or two (what the yanks call a pair of pin bars) is the 'pre-tell'..
Very successful recovery specialist CR used to look for a bowl shaped chart together with turnaround news - its all just different ways of looking at the same thing.|