Candover Investments Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 29/4/2016 10:10

Taking today's figures of gross cash of £34.2m and implied gross debt of £45.4m (up from £39.7m 31/12/16!) I struggle to get up to the Liberum figure.

Net Debt (11.2m)
Technogym 7.6m
Parques 32.7m
Other bits and pieces from 31/12 2.6m

NAV £30.7m or £1.43 per share.

The increased debt figure seems to be the variation? Do you have any breakdown of the liberum figures Tiltonboy?

[skyship] 29/4/2016 09:59

Thnx for that everyone. with a near-term distribution to come, perhps a HOLD, but not a BUY...

[tiltonboy] 29/4/2016 09:20

Liberum have NAV at 191.5p

[strathroyal] 29/4/2016 09:03

Sky,

31/12/15 PR was valued at £43.4M, Techono at £22.5, Stork £14.1M and net debt was £33.2m.

29/04/16 PR has been written down to £35.3M, Techno to £19.3M. Partial realisations give cash of £14.3M and the residual will then be valued at £40.3M.

So by my reckoning net assets of £55.2M (243pps) at 31/12/15 are now £43.9M which would make maximum nav around £1.95.

[eezymunny] 29/4/2016 08:33

Err net debt is gross cash - gross debt, no? ie there's negative net cash?

[skyship] 29/4/2016 07:21

Agree with all of that of course; but has the Market got it wrong:

Extract from today's RNS on Technogym IPO:
=========================================
"The proceeds from the IPO, together with the proceeds received from the
realisation of Stork BV and the partial realisation of Parques, will result in
Candover having gross cash balances of GBP34.2 million, and proforma net debt of
GBP11.2 million."

So, Net cash of £23m versus a MCap of £32m

But CDI is also left with holdings in Technogym notionally worth £7.6m & PR notionally worth £32.7m.

So assets of £63m versus MCap OF £32m; and an early capital repayment on the cards.

Can someone run through the numbers and tell me I'm being an idiot...; but if those stats stack up, I may buy back in again!

[topvest] 28/4/2016 20:49

Another part disposal well below book value. Unfortunately, we have all been had here by a company that has overvalued its investments. Most private equity groups made a profit on their disposals, but not Candover. Always very difficult with private equity groups to know whether their valuations are racy, realistic or prudent. We know that Candover must have been at the racy end of the spectrum when they can't even sell their best investments for anything like book value. Bit of a disgrace really. Lets face it over the last few years, they have made a loss on pretty much everyone of their investments. We will be lucky to get any cash back at this rate. A real disappointment versus their earlier successes in the credit boom.

[topvest] 05/3/2016 16:26

It all depends on whether a fundraising is needed or not. If it is, and that has to be likely, then likely that they get wiped out. Because of the debt in such PE structures it's unlikely that you get a return once the value goes down to nil.

[chrisgail] 05/3/2016 10:08

With the 'slight' recovery of the oil price there may just be some value in Expro. Both Expro and Candover have the funds and hence the time, if oil continues to rise, to see this out. Candover may, and I accept it is a may, just see final payments to shareholders that exceed the present share price by a large margin. Having held this for far too long, I might as well hold it to the end, whatever the outcome.

[stupidboypike] 26/2/2016 11:12

Also out this morning. Not a good one. Good luck to all holders. Best regards SBP

[iainjross] 26/2/2016 10:52

This has been a total disaster for me and an expensive lesson.

Sold out my holding this morning.

[alphahunter] 26/2/2016 10:13

I'm surprised with the nil value of the equity in Expro, particularely so shortly after a follow-on equity injection. Not clear, no point in second-guessing, might consider it at 20% discount to the 100p they promised.

[skyship] 26/2/2016 09:44

Agreed, ARLE have been truly pathetic. Not to have sold PR before the Spanish elections was criminal neglect!

Only had a few left but have decided to ditch them nevertheless - one less thing to worry and grieve over.

CDI has been the only failure amongst the highly successful liquidations in the PE sector - HPEQ, NRI, MTH & LMS have all rewarded greatly; next in line DNE will now hopefully follow those rewarding footsteps...

[topvest] 26/2/2016 07:53

It's all about Parques Reunidos and Technogym now. Sell those well and we get a return. If these deteriorate, we get nothing. Sounds like Technogym is looking to list in Italy. At least markets have improved so a listing might be possible. Both these two are trading well and currency headwinds have reversed in recent months. Stork was sold at a loss - why couldn't they just say that at the time? The problem with the Candover model is that their investments are loaded with debt. Good businesses they might be, but any downturn and shareholders are wiped out. I suspect we must assume that its highly unlikely that Expro will be worth anything. £3.5m of running costs before company leverage is also killing us. On balance, very poor indeed! Hope to get at least £2 back but who knows?

Also, why do they keep on talking about dividends before the debt is repaid? Pay off the high cost debt first and then pay dividends or a capital return. Just get on with it, before more value disappears in costs, forex and interest charges!! Also, they keep talking about top quality corporate governance. Well that's not done us much good has it? Devastating multi-year losses of capital now, when other PE companies have been doing very well.

[topvest] 26/2/2016 07:41

Yes, ARLE have been truly rubbish at selling anything. They seem to get the timing wrong all the time. Looks lie the Parques Reunidos sale isn't happening anytime soon. EXPRO probably worth nothing. Terrible!

[tiltonboy] 26/2/2016 07:37

After LEAF I vowed not to buy wind-ups with concentrated portfolios no matter how wide the discount. I got rather persuaded on this(my own stupid fault)but thankfully only put a half unit in, and didn't buy it for clients.

The news this morning is dire, and if I can finish up with only a 20% loss I will be delighted.

This is already shaping up to be a horror year!

[leedsu36] 06/1/2016 06:15

I wish I had your optimism lg,but this is nowhere near the bottom yet,Aberdeen still have million upon million to sell,and there is not just Aberdeen doing the selling,i'm afraid you've all been taken in by a couple of FT journo's

Every false dawn gets sold into.The graph does NOT lie.

We on the other hand pick winner after winner after winner,take a look at ctp,mxcp,pinn,csi,bhrd,tek,opti,rcn,eye,kmk.....ours is a list of neverending winners,getting stuck in a rut is no good in this game,cut your losses sometime and invest elsewhere....

[felix99] 15/12/2015 13:46

One would suggest they do what they say on the Tin. Shareholders who want cash will have sold at a discount or current share value to them and in turn they sit on the holding to make a turn when cash is divided up by CDI .The interesting bit would be what arbitrage profit they expect to make!

[skyship] 15/12/2015 13:38

Aggegator Opportunities Fund (Deutsche Bank) has gone from zilch to 10% in an instant. Do they know something? Who donated the stock?

[rcturner2] 15/12/2015 07:27

strathroyal, yes I think you are right about that, I don't know how I got that number.

There are 21m shares in issue, so if £56m is received, that is 266p per share.

At the current valuation of £41m, PR is valued at 195p a share.

[leedsu36] 15/12/2015 06:15

Thanks for that HE,i don't think Parque is the only one with baggage,this is a disgrace here,from £6 to under £1.95 in 12 months is staggering drop by any stretch.

The truth will be exposed soon enough,it can't keep being hidden,debt is debt after all dressing up has achieved nothing.