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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cambria Auto LSE:CAMB London Ordinary Share GB00B4R32X65 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.75p -1.18% 63.00p 61.00p 65.00p 64.875p 63.00p 63.75p 33,663 14:00:18
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Retailers 614.2 11.8 9.3 6.8 63.00

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Date Time Title Posts
05/7/201709:05Cambria Automobiles - The Long Story346
10/5/201611:58Cambria Auto404
26/8/201106:49Cambodian Mining Opportunities - in Junior co's2

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DateSubject
22/7/2017
09:20
Cambria Automobiles Daily Update: Cambria Auto is listed in the General Retailers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CAMB. The last closing price for Cambria Automobiles was 63.75p.
Cambria Auto has a 4 week average price of 63p and a 12 week average price of 63p.
The 1 year high share price is 76p while the 1 year low share price is currently 53.50p.
There are currently 100,000,000 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 75,828 shares. The market capitalisation of Cambria Auto is £63,000,000.
09/5/2017
09:56
mortimer7: Solid set of interim results out today, underpinning their ongoing success. Very impressive how the management team seem to be in tight control of this business. Positive outlook as well with CEO stating today "We are therefore confident that the full year results will be slightly ahead of the current market expectations". Share price up modestly by 5% to 73p this morning, with surprisingly little volume.
08/5/2017
09:03
mortimer7: Interim results to 28th Feb due tomorrow. After the pre close update in March we already know they are ahead year on year. Last year on interim results day the share price opened at 70p & closed at 79.5p. I doubt there will be anything like that this year, but you never know!
04/5/2017
10:33
wilmdav: I expect this was responsible for the slight blip in share price, reported first in the Times. Https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/3458353/fears-of-uk-car-financing-industry-crash-as-claims-surface-of-loans-mis-sold-to-poorer-customers-who-cant-afford-to-repay/
04/1/2017
08:36
mortimer7: Trading update prior to todays AGM.. http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/cambria-automobiles-CAMB/share-news/Cambria-Automobiles-Plc-AGM-Trading-Update/73533536 Current year ahead of last year on like for like & total comparison. Recent acquisitions look set to boost performance even if there is a dip triggered by wider economic issues. Aftersales profit looking particularly healthy, up 6% on last financial year so far.
21/12/2016
16:28
mortimer7: Given that the NED was offloading this quantity, it's quite reassuring that the share price has not really moved from the 59 to 61p range since the beginning of December.
22/11/2016
09:22
effortless cool: It's a difficult balance to get right. In a market that is overreacting to any negativity (see the share price move this morning), I am happy for them not to emphasise minor negatives, as this fire seems likely to be.
29/4/2016
15:42
buffythebuffoon: It depends on what you mean by significant of course. Sure the share price is not irrelevant, but unless I was a short term trader, I'd take a well run expanding company with a weak share price to a badly run business with bad economics and a strong share price that was flavour of the month. It seems to be accepted that the share price will drop like a stone when the next recession hits. The thing is, we look as though we'll have low interest rates for a long time. People can borrow money very cheaply, and it looks like that won't change any time soon. My son in law provides finance for car buyers. The dealers want to do business, the buyers want to do business and the finance company wants to do business. Oh, and my son in law, who earns nearly as much as David Cameron on the back of it, also wants to do business. I like Cambria, the way it's run, it's vision, and it's future. The fact that a few others want to trade in their casino chips doesn't bother me one bit. Buffy
28/4/2016
10:57
mortimer7: Having now had my stop loss triggered & being out for now, In an attempt to cheer myself up, I just plotted a one year share price comparison chart of CAMB & other motor traders, VTU, PDG, MMH, LOOK. The results show these price movements:- CAMB + 23% VTU + 8% LOOK - 5% MMH - 11% PDG - 22% Doing the same for 6 month, 2 year and 3 year comparisons CAMB is always the best performer. Unfortunately for the 1 month chart CAMB is the worst. I'm sorry I haven't the skills to be able to post the charts on here, but I thought I'd share the results anyway as they're easy enough to check.
14/1/2016
12:55
graham1ty: Was at the AGM. Very positive. Pointed out that with the upgrades, the rating is going down, not up as the share price is not keeping up with forecast increases. Think CAMB will always be on slight discount as a car dealer, and worries about the cycle, but Mark L's ability to do deals will continue to enhance eps. I dug out some old research. In May 2014 forecast for 2017 was eps of 4.3p. The forecast is now 8.6p so the company is twice as profitable next year as envisaged just 20 months ago. The share price then was 52p on the Panmures note. So, eps forecast has exactly doubled, while the share price is up only 60% since then. 2017 p/e was 12.6x and yet now is 9.4x. Is the perceived value of CAMB really 25% lower than it was under two years ago ? Mark L will continue to do deals ( and if you can do them, like Mondays on 4x PBT) that are earnings enhancing and forecasts should continue to rise. The upgrades on Monday were on the back of the acquisition. Today's statement is trading "significantly ahead" so I am happy that the forecasts will stick. So, despite another year's successful growth, a continuing stream of successful acquisitions, despite the share price move and some institutional interest, after all of that CAMB on fundamentals is worth 25% less than it was under two years ago. That does not seem right.
04/7/2015
10:58
effortless cool: I believe that Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) is currently materially undervalued (58.5p), will significantly beat broker forecasts and will benefit from substantial broker upgrades of future year results. In its own words: “Cambria was established in 2006 with a strategy to build a balanced motor retail group through close cooperation with our manufacturer partners and the self-funded acquisition and turnaround of underperforming businesses”. As set out below, it seems to be executing this strategy admirably well. It currently operates 29 dealerships representing 46 franchises and 18 brands across the UK. Cambria is a simple business – it sells new and used cars and provides after sales services on them. Its accounts are simple too, showing consistent ratios and trends, with a clear and reliable seasonality (H2 is better than H1), albeit complicated by the effect of acquisitions. New car sales is the fastest growing area of the business, increasing at 16% per annum (after adjusting for acquisitions) and is just overtaking used car sales as the largest segment. It is also, unfortunately, the segment with the lowest gross margin, varying between 6-7%. It would, however, seem reasonable to assume that it is a more reliable source of aftersales service than used cars. Used car sales have a higher gross margin (9.0-9.5%) but a lower growth rate (6% per annum, after adjustment for acquisitions). After sales service is by far the highest margin segment (40-43%) but is also the smallest and the slowest growing at just 1% per annum, after adjusting for acquisitions. The gradual deterioration in business mix described above is more than countered by the overall growth in the business, combined with the high operational gearing. Administrative expenses have dropped from 13.0% of revenue in 2012 H1 to 10.6% in 2015 H1. This trend has been helped by periodic acquisitions – one a year in 2013 to 2015. A Land Rover/Jaguar dealership generating revenues of £46m per annum was acquired in July 2014. This was anticipated to be “significantly earnings enhancing” in the current financial year. A further Land Rover franchise generating revenue of £32m was acquired in May 2015, so does not yet contribute to any published figures. This was anticipated to be “immediately earnings enhancing”. Acquisitions have been financed through cash and debt, and the company has historically been very frugal with it equity capital. It did, however, grant 5m options to staff recently, exercisable from January 2020 at 47p. The balance sheet is not conventionally strong, showing negative net current assets. However, this is just a reflection of the working capital characteristics of the business and Cambria has consistently generated cash in recent years through more efficient working capital management. Cambria is a relatively small company, with a market capitalisation of £58.5m at 58.5p. It is only covered by one broker – N+1 Singer – and their forecasts fall well short of my projections. For 2015, the broker forecasts revenue of £514.4m and pre-tax profit of £7.35m; my equivalent figures are £526.5m and £8.36m. The discrepancies for 2016 are even greater, with broker forecasts of £553.5m revenue and £8.35m PTP significantly lagging my projections of £587.0m and £10.64m, respectively. I am as confident as one can be that we will see an “ahead of market expectations” announcement in Cambria in due course. The company pays a small but progressive dividend and should be highly cash generative over the period of my projections. Projected net cash of £15.7m at end-2016 easily provides scope for further bolt-on acquisitions. Note also that Cambria is 40% owned by its Chief Executive, which I regard as a major positive. I tend to value companies based on their projected earnings for the following two half years (2015 H2 and 2016 H1, in this case), adjusted for net cash at the end of the period and any potential dilution from options, etc. For Cambria, my target prospective PE ratio is quite low at 10, reflecting the fact that it is cyclical business at a favourable period of its cycle. I am forecasting 7.04p EPS. This gives a target price of 75.9p, after adjusting for net cash, dividends and options. This represents a 30% premium to the current share price. I have made a serious commitment on this share, buying 203.5k at an average of 59.0p. (Since increased to 272.7k at an average of 58.7p on 9/7/15). [Earlier updates transferred to post 1] ================== Update 15 May 2016 ================== CAMB's interims for 2016 were close to my forecasts, providing strong encouragement to the reliability of my model. Revenue remains challenging to forecast, however, due to acquisitions and divestments. The interims also flagged £13m of investment in the Barnet and Swindon properties over the next three periods, which I have now incorporated into the model. By the end of my valuation period, these investments have sucked cash out without yet materially boosting revenue; I have therefore moved my target PE ratio from 9 to 10, to reflect their future potential. My revised forecasts are: # Revenue - 2016: £606.4m, 2017: £652.9m # Pre-tax profit - 2016: £12.0m (£1.8m exceptional), 2017: £10.8m # EPS - 2016: 9.6p, 2017: 8.5p # DPS - 2016: 0.9p, 2017: 1.0p # Net cash - 2016: £5.1m, 2017: £11.1m Particularly notable is CAMB's continued ability to throw off cash, in spite of the very high cap ex on the two properties mentioned. My updated valuation is 100.4p, representing a 29% premium to today's price of 78.0p. In my view, this remains a Buy. ======================= Update 24 November 2016 ======================= Contrary to what the subsequent share price action might suggest, I thought CAMB produced a good set of results earlier this week. I have now updated my model, the main changes to the projections being to factor in a 5% fall in new vehicle sales over 2017 and to include a £31m investment in existing properties over the next two years. Updated forecasts are as follows: # Revenue - 2017: £662.8m, 2018: £655.9m # Pre-tax profit - 2017: £12.1m, 2018: £11.7m # EPS - 2017: 9.7p, 2018: 9.4p # DPS - 2017: 1.05p, 2018: 1.2p # Net cash - 2017: £1.0m, 2018: -£0.3m The resilience of the cash flow is again notable, in spite of the massive capex planned. The drop in revenue and profits for 2018 is presumably what is putting punters off, but I see plenty of upside in these forecasts. Applying a PE ratio of 10 (reflecting the potential benefits of the capex), I get an adjusted valuation of 87.2. At a 45% premium to today's price of 60p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. ======================= Update 15 January 2017 ======================= I have reviewed and revised my forecasts based on the AGM trading update of 4 January, and to try and better align my 2017 revenue figure with consensus estimates. Updated forecasts are as follows, along with latest consensus (where available) in brackets: # Revenue - 2017: £644.4m (£644.5m), 2018: £654.7m (£660.5m) # Pre-tax profit - 2017: £11.7m, 2018: £12.2m # EPS - 2017: 9.3p (8.3p), 2018: 9.9p (8.5p) # DPS - 2017: 1.05p (0.95p), 2018: 1.20p (1.00p) # Net cash - 2017: -£0.3, 2018: -£0.7m Applying a PE ratio of 10, I get an adjusted valuation of 87.4p. At a 40% premium to today's price of 62.5p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. My top line is consistent with consensus but my EPS figures are higher. I expect upgrades to broker earnings forecasts in due course. Another key factor here is that my forecasts include capex of £8.5m per half year. This reflects the planned investment in the estate and is way higher than historical capex. This reduces my valuation, as cash is lower than it would otherwise be, but provides a strong platform to drive revenue growth beyond the projection period. ======================= Update 12 March 2017 ======================= I have reviewed and revised my forecasts based on the trading update of 7 January, and again to try and better align my 2017 revenue figure with consensus estimates. Updated forecasts are as follows, along with latest consensus (where available) in brackets: # Revenue - 2017: £631.0m (£631.8m), 2018: £639.2m (£647.4m) # Pre-tax profit - 2017: £12.7m, 2018: £12.6m # EPS - 2017: 10.2p (8.25p), 2018: 10.1p (8.50p) # DPS - 2017: 1.05p (0.95p), 2018: 1.20p (1.00p) # Net cash - 2017: £1.6, 2018: 1.8m Applying a PE ratio of 10, I get an adjusted valuation of 86.0p (I have refined my methodology since January). At a 30% premium to today's price of 66.0p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. My top line is consistent with consensus but my EPS figures are higher. I expect upgrades to broker earnings forecasts in due course. Another key factor here is that my forecasts include capex of £8.5m per half year. This reflects the planned investment in the estate and is way higher than historical capex. This reduces my valuation, as cash is lower than it would otherwise be, but provides a strong platform to drive revenue growth beyond the projection period. Useful links ============ Investor relations: Http://www.cambriaautomobilesplc.com/investor_relations Broker forecasts: Http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=4&vw=bs&SecurityToken=0P0000NN0I%5d3%5d0%5dE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P0000NN0I&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=GBP Monthly data on new car registrations: https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/news/registrations/ A very interesting post from Ethelwalch, who knows the business well: http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=34187475&from=27#firstpost Link to 2016 AGM report from Graham1TY: Http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=25207809&from=397#firstpost
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