Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cambria Auto LSE:CAMB London Ordinary Share GB00B4R32X65 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -0.83% 60.00p 57.00p 61.00p 60.00p 59.00p 59.50p 191,646.00 16:35:29
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Retailers 614.2 11.8 9.3 6.5 60.00

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Date Time Title Posts
05/12/201609:50Cambria Automobiles - The Long Story289.00
10/5/201610:58Cambria Auto404.00
26/8/201105:49Cambodian Mining Opportunities - in Junior co's2.00

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Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
09/12/2016 16:35:2960.0010,0006,000.00UT
09/12/2016 14:00:0860.001,000600.00UT
09/12/2016 12:40:0760.301,000603.00O
09/12/2016 12:15:1059.0060,00035,400.00O
09/12/2016 11:29:5260.30646389.54O
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Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
09/12/2016
08:20
Cambria Automobiles Daily Update: Cambria Auto is listed in the General Retailers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CAMB. The last closing price for Cambria Automobiles was 60.50p.
Cambria Auto has a 4 week average price of 61.54p and a 12 week average price of 63.78p.
The 1 year high share price is 88.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 53.50p.
There are currently 100,000,000 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 96,671 shares. The market capitalisation of Cambria Auto is £60,000,000.
22/11/2016
09:22
effortless cool: It's a difficult balance to get right. In a market that is overreacting to any negativity (see the share price move this morning), I am happy for them not to emphasise minor negatives, as this fire seems likely to be.
05/10/2016
10:08
glaws2: I would welcome a corresponding boost to the share price !
10/5/2016
06:14
jaf111: Yes very good effort Effortless!!! Would expect strong bounce back after these excellent results....the recent slide in share price hard to understand.......once again outlook very positive / ahead of expectations....... Fingers crossed
29/4/2016
14:42
buffythebuffoon: It depends on what you mean by significant of course. Sure the share price is not irrelevant, but unless I was a short term trader, I'd take a well run expanding company with a weak share price to a badly run business with bad economics and a strong share price that was flavour of the month. It seems to be accepted that the share price will drop like a stone when the next recession hits. The thing is, we look as though we'll have low interest rates for a long time. People can borrow money very cheaply, and it looks like that won't change any time soon. My son in law provides finance for car buyers. The dealers want to do business, the buyers want to do business and the finance company wants to do business. Oh, and my son in law, who earns nearly as much as David Cameron on the back of it, also wants to do business. I like Cambria, the way it's run, it's vision, and it's future. The fact that a few others want to trade in their casino chips doesn't bother me one bit. Buffy
28/4/2016
09:57
mortimer7: Having now had my stop loss triggered & being out for now, In an attempt to cheer myself up, I just plotted a one year share price comparison chart of CAMB & other motor traders, VTU, PDG, MMH, LOOK. The results show these price movements:- CAMB + 23% VTU + 8% LOOK - 5% MMH - 11% PDG - 22% Doing the same for 6 month, 2 year and 3 year comparisons CAMB is always the best performer. Unfortunately for the 1 month chart CAMB is the worst. I'm sorry I haven't the skills to be able to post the charts on here, but I thought I'd share the results anyway as they're easy enough to check.
21/4/2016
09:41
jaf111: Interims out 10 May.... 7 March Trading Update "substantially ahead"..... Car market remains very buoyant Struggling to understand recent share price weakness!!! Have bought more...
04/4/2016
20:59
effortless cool: I guess the share price action is answering your question. BREXIT = weak Sterling = more expensive imported cars = lower revenue. Perhaps partially compensated by a pick-up in used car transactions.
14/1/2016
12:55
graham1ty: Was at the AGM. Very positive. Pointed out that with the upgrades, the rating is going down, not up as the share price is not keeping up with forecast increases. Think CAMB will always be on slight discount as a car dealer, and worries about the cycle, but Mark L's ability to do deals will continue to enhance eps. I dug out some old research. In May 2014 forecast for 2017 was eps of 4.3p. The forecast is now 8.6p so the company is twice as profitable next year as envisaged just 20 months ago. The share price then was 52p on the Panmures note. So, eps forecast has exactly doubled, while the share price is up only 60% since then. 2017 p/e was 12.6x and yet now is 9.4x. Is the perceived value of CAMB really 25% lower than it was under two years ago ? Mark L will continue to do deals ( and if you can do them, like Mondays on 4x PBT) that are earnings enhancing and forecasts should continue to rise. The upgrades on Monday were on the back of the acquisition. Today's statement is trading "significantly ahead" so I am happy that the forecasts will stick. So, despite another year's successful growth, a continuing stream of successful acquisitions, despite the share price move and some institutional interest, after all of that CAMB on fundamentals is worth 25% less than it was under two years ago. That does not seem right.
06/8/2015
20:22
jaf111: PDG results well received with nearly 20% increase in share price following increase in profits and earnings per share of 23%. Am expecting CAMB to continue to out-perform PDG....hopefully next month's trading update will point to a minimum 50% increase in earnings per share putting the shares on a PE of around 10. Both PDG and CAMB's share price have risen by a similar amount (around one third) over the past year. I have continued to increase my position in CAMB but no longer hold PDG. (I also have smaller positions in LOOK, VTU and CFYN)
04/7/2015
09:58
effortless cool: I believe that Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) is currently materially undervalued (58.5p), will significantly beat broker forecasts and will benefit from substantial broker upgrades of future year results. In its own words: “Cambria was established in 2006 with a strategy to build a balanced motor retail group through close cooperation with our manufacturer partners and the self-funded acquisition and turnaround of underperforming businesses”. As set out below, it seems to be executing this strategy admirably well. It currently operates 29 dealerships representing 46 franchises and 18 brands across the UK. Cambria is a simple business – it sells new and used cars and provides after sales services on them. Its accounts are simple too, showing consistent ratios and trends, with a clear and reliable seasonality (H2 is better than H1), albeit complicated by the effect of acquisitions. New car sales is the fastest growing area of the business, increasing at 16% per annum (after adjusting for acquisitions) and is just overtaking used car sales as the largest segment. It is also, unfortunately, the segment with the lowest gross margin, varying between 6-7%. It would, however, seem reasonable to assume that it is a more reliable source of aftersales service than used cars. Used car sales have a higher gross margin (9.0-9.5%) but a lower growth rate (6% per annum, after adjustment for acquisitions). After sales service is by far the highest margin segment (40-43%) but is also the smallest and the slowest growing at just 1% per annum, after adjusting for acquisitions. The gradual deterioration in business mix described above is more than countered by the overall growth in the business, combined with the high operational gearing. Administrative expenses have dropped from 13.0% of revenue in 2012 H1 to 10.6% in 2015 H1. This trend has been helped by periodic acquisitions – one a year in 2013 to 2015. A Land Rover/Jaguar dealership generating revenues of £46m per annum was acquired in July 2014. This was anticipated to be “significantly earnings enhancing” in the current financial year. A further Land Rover franchise generating revenue of £32m was acquired in May 2015, so does not yet contribute to any published figures. This was anticipated to be “immediately earnings enhancing”. Acquisitions have been financed through cash and debt, and the company has historically been very frugal with it equity capital. It did, however, grant 5m options to staff recently, exercisable from January 2020 at 47p. The balance sheet is not conventionally strong, showing negative net current assets. However, this is just a reflection of the working capital characteristics of the business and Cambria has consistently generated cash in recent years through more efficient working capital management. Cambria is a relatively small company, with a market capitalisation of £58.5m at 58.5p. It is only covered by one broker – N+1 Singer – and their forecasts fall well short of my projections. For 2015, the broker forecasts revenue of £514.4m and pre-tax profit of £7.35m; my equivalent figures are £526.5m and £8.36m. The discrepancies for 2016 are even greater, with broker forecasts of £553.5m revenue and £8.35m PTP significantly lagging my projections of £587.0m and £10.64m, respectively. I am as confident as one can be that we will see an “ahead of market expectations” announcement in Cambria in due course. The company pays a small but progressive dividend and should be highly cash generative over the period of my projections. Projected net cash of £15.7m at end-2016 easily provides scope for further bolt-on acquisitions. Note also that Cambria is 40% owned by its Chief Executive, which I regard as a major positive. I tend to value companies based on their projected earnings for the following two half years (2015 H2 and 2016 H1, in this case), adjusted for net cash at the end of the period and any potential dilution from options, etc. For Cambria, my target prospective PE ratio is quite low at 10, reflecting the fact that it is cyclical business at a favourable period of its cycle. I am forecasting 7.04p EPS. This gives a target price of 75.9p, after adjusting for net cash, dividends and options. This represents a 30% premium to the current share price. I have made a serious commitment on this share, buying 203.5k at an average of 59.0p. (Since increased to 272.7k at an average of 58.7p on 9/7/15). ====================== Update 3 December 2015 ====================== The recent full year results were a bit worse than my projections, mainly because I overestimated revenue by £2.7m. I have now updated my model to reflect this latest information, and also included a few enhancements, mainly related to acquisitions. The results are very encouraging. I am forecasting revenues of £558m for 2016 and £573m for 2017, with corresponding pre-tax profits of £9.1m and £9.3m. I also anticipate the business throwing of cash over this period, at a rate of about £11m each year. I have rolled forward my valuation base period by six months to cover the period 2016 H2 and 2017 H1. Still using target PE ratio of 10, and adjusting for cash, dividends and options, my target price increases to 91.3p. That represents 22% upside from the current price of 75p. I see this as erring at the conservative end. In particular, the new banking facilities give Cambria serious firepower for further acquisitions and/or to invest in existing franchises. Given their excellent record in this regard, further value-enhancing investments are surely likely. ====================== Update 24 January 2016 ====================== On 11 January, CAMB announced an acquisition and disposal, and I have amended my projections to try and allow for these. Limited information is available, so the projections are less robust than normal. My updated revenue forecasts are £592m for 2016 and £602m for 2017. Based on post-tax profits of £9.2m over the period 2016 H2 and 2017 H1, a target PE ratio of 10, net cash of £10.1m and adjusting for options, my target price jumps materially to 99.9p, which represents at 27% premium to today's price of 78.5p. ==================== Update 11 March 2016 ==================== I have updated my projections to reflect the 7 March trading update. In summary, this seemed to imply lower revenues but higher margins than I had previously anticipated. My updated revenue forecasts are £586m for 2016 and £592m for 2017. My updated target price is 98.3p, which represents a 24% premium to today's price of 79.0p. ================== Update 15 May 2016 ================== CAMB's interims for 2016 were close to my forecasts, providing strong encouragement to the reliability of my model. Revenue remains challenging to forecast, however, due to acquisitions and divestments. The interims also flagged £13m of investment in the Barnet and Swindon properties over the next three periods, which I have now incorporated into the model. By the end of my valuation period, these investments have sucked cash out without yet materially boosting revenue; I have therefore moved my target PE ratio from 9 to 10, to reflect their future potential. My revised forecasts are: # Revenue - 2016: £606.4m, 2017: £652.9m # Pre-tax profit - 2016: £12.0m (£1.8m exceptional), 2017: £10.8m # EPS - 2016: 9.6p, 2017: 8.5p # DPS - 2016: 0.9p, 2017: 1.0p # Net cash - 2016: £5.1m, 2017: £11.1m Particularly notable is CAMB's continued ability to throw off cash, in spite of the very high cap ex on the two properties mentioned. My updated valuation is 100.4p, representing a 29% premium to today's price of 78.0p. In my view, this remains a Buy. ======================= Update 24 November 2016 ======================= Contrary to what the subsequent share price action might suggest, I thought CAMB produced a good set of results earlier this week. I have now updated my model, the main changes to the projections being to factor in a 5% fall in new vehicle sales over 2017 and to include a £31m investment in existing properties over the next two years. Updated forecasts are as follows: # Revenue - 2017: £662.8m, 2018: £655.9m # Pre-tax profit - 2017: £12.1m, 2018: £11.7m # EPS - 2017: 9.7p, 2018: 9.4p # DPS - 2017: 1.05p, 2018: 1.2p # Net cash - 2017: £1.0m, 2018: -£0.3m The resilience of the cash flow is again notable, in spite of the massive capex planned. The drop in revenue and profits for 2018 is presumably what is putting punters off, but I see plenty of upside in these forecasts. Applying a PE ratio of 10 (reflecting the potential benefits of the capex), I get an adjusted valuation of 87.2. At a 45% premium to today's price of 60p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. Useful links ============ Investor relations: Http://www.cambriaautomobilesplc.com/investor_relations Broker forecasts: Http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=4&vw=bs&SecurityToken=0P0000NN0I%5d3%5d0%5dE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P0000NN0I&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=GBP Monthly data on new car registrations: Http://www.smmt.co.uk/category/news-registration-cars/ A very interesting post from Ethelwalch, who knows the business well: http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=34187475&from=27#firstpost Link to 2016 AGM report from Graham1TY: Http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=25207809&from=397#firstpost
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