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Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads
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|1. Good spot - must be a typo.
2. They don't really give any indication on this.|
|I am just reading the YE 31 August 2016 Annual Report. I wondered if those who know the company and industry well could kindly answer two questions?
1. Note 22 (d) at the bottom of page 54 gives the impact of “an increase of 0.5 basis points in interest rates”. From the table, such an increase would decrease profit by £211,000. There are 100 basis points in 1%, right? If yes, i calculate that a 1% increase in interest rates would hit the P&L with a £42.2 million decrease in profit. Wow! Have i screwed up somewhere? Or is 0.5 basis points a typo and should read 0.5%.
2. I could not find any breakdown of the £58.4 Administrative expenses. I assume this includes all the staff costs (£38.7m). If not, how do they get to such a large figure? If correct, does anybody have any calculation (could be approximate) of how the Gross Profit per revenue stream (new sales, used sales, after sales) looks like after staff costs have been allocated and deducted?|
|They do look good appointments; complementary skill sets to the operational expertise of the executives.|
|The two non exec appointments today seems to have caught the attention more than the SMMT figures yesterday|
|Indeed. SMMT narrative today is stating "some cooling is anticipated over the coming months".
And also "but provided interest rates remain low and the economy stable, the market is in a good position to withstand its short-term challenges".|
|That's certainly a good start to the year, given that SMMT were forecasting a 5% fall in new car sales in 2017.|
|SMMT have published their new car registration figures for the month of Jnauary 2017 this morning.
A total of 174,564 units were registered compared to 169,678 in January 2016.
Within this total figure, private registrations led the growth, registering 76,729 new cars – up 5.0% on January 2016.
The increase in private regns is a significant point for Cambria as their new car sales are predominantly in to this sector as opposed to Fleet.|
|If my local Ford dealer is anything to go by, main dealers are fighting back to keep servicing and repair business. I get a 10% discount on parts with my loyalty card, reminders for service and MOT, courtesy car and valet thrown in for free and free breakdown cover contracted out to AA which lasts a year after the service. All things considered good value I think.|
|Shares mag Are motor retailers out of gas "analysts highlight the prospect of a strong March as demand is pulled forward ahead of changes to Vehicle Excise Duty (road tax) due to be implemented on 1 April, which will lead to a more onerous charging structure.
This, argues the broker, could provide a re-rating catalyst for underrated players including Lookers (LOOK), boastng one of the broadest spreads of brands in the industry, successful
buy and build Vertu Motors (VTU:AIM) and the ambitous Cambria Automobiles (CAMB:AIM), where savvy CEO Mark Lavery has plenty of ‘skin" in the game with a 40% stake."|
|This will work...Http://www.david-wilmshurst.co.uk/camb/camb_data.htm|
|Might be of interest to some:
I find the cash flow charts particularly helpful in understanding companies.
Link amended 05/02/17|
|Looks like someone has sold a big chunk this morning: 500k @ 61.5p.|
|I have updated the header with my revised forecasts following the trading statement and added some more information on broker consensus figures.
Some historical updates have been move to post 1 - I will just show the three most recent in the header, otherwise it will become stupidly long.|
|davidosh - by car companies do you mean dealers?|
|Pre registration is not a bad thing and indeed is essential to efficient stock managment. maximising margins and agreeing good financing terms with OEMs. The problem is SMMT figures show cars registered not sold and the figures are certainly open to manipulation. High figures can indicate a lot of supply being pushed onto the market and the hope is current figures are a fair reflection of end consumer demand. Its obviously a problem is unscrupulous / inefficient companies preregister a load of cars to secure sales bonuses and record them as sales when in fact they are just sat on the forecourt. These then may need to be shifted at reduced prices damaging residual values for everyone. Its a shame all retailers across the sector are not more open about their registration policies and don't provide more data on efficiency metrics like stock turnover periods etc.D|
|I wonder if the car dealerships would admit to the numbers they actually pre register each year as surely this becomes a double sale within a couple of months because it will get registered as a new car sold but earn minimal margin (to allow better margin overall on other sales) and then get sold possibly at a loss into the second hand market.|
|And old piece on pre-registrations but relevant:
24 July 2012 - 8:21am
Vertu Motors, owner of Bristol Street Motors, has reported a strong start to its financial year with like-for-like vehicle revenues growing by 5.1% in the four months to June 30.
The group told shareholders at its AGM that it has traded ahead of the prior year with like-for-like profit growth in each of the key areas of the business.
But chairman, Paul Williams, warned that pre-registration activity was starting to distort the market. He added that the Vertu Motors board believes there is an increasing trend for self-registered vehicles to be classified as private, rather than fleet, registrations within the market.
“The market is witnessing increased levels of self-registration by UK dealers which is inflating registration data compared to sales levels,” he said. “The group (Vertu Motors) continues to follow a policy of not engaging in significant self-registration activity.”
|Thanks, M7. If pre-registrations have been growing, that explains my difficulties in making sense of the new car like-for-like over the last few years.|
|Decent size buy just gone through after 3pm: 50000 at 62p (£31k).|
|stepone - the 80% figure you refer to is NOT related to pre registered vehicles.
This extract from Autocar 28 Oct 2016:-
"As many as one in five new cars are being pre-registered by dealers in order to meet manufacturers' sales targets".
Effortless Cool - standard practice for dealers is to classify a pre-reg vehicle as a used sale.|
|The 80% figure is repeated in an interview with Mike Hawes of the SMMT
"Interest rate rises, which could be triggered by rising inflation, would threaten a market where motorists regularly switch to new cars through loan and trade-in deals. With 80% of sales coming through such deals, Hawes said, vehicles had been affordable as long as interest rates were low"
More at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/british-car-industry-body-warns-of-sales-downturn-as-uncertainty-kicks-in
EffortlessCool - That's true, but I guess we would need to know if the total number of pre-reg cars sitting on dealer forecourts has gone up or down. Can't tell that from the figures. I don't know the answer to your second question.|
Am I correct to assume that pre-registered cars would count in the SMMT figures but are not necessarily sold as at the date those figures are compiled? If that is right, then the deficiency will be offset somewhat by the cars that were pre-registered and unsold one year ago but have since sold (been leased) during the year.
Also, do you know whether dealers class the sale of a pre-registered vehicle as new or as used?|
|I don't think the figure of 80% is correct. I think it's more likely to be 20%.|
|This morning SMMT issued the new car registration figures for December showing a total of 178,022 units which gives a final number for the 2016 year of 2,692,786.
Which is the highest ever number of new cars in a calendar year up 2.3% on 2015.
This represents the fifth consecutive year of growth.
SMMT CEO Commented "Despite 2016’s political and economic uncertainties, the UK’s new car market delivered another record performance as car makers offered an incredible range of innovative and high tech models".|