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Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads
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|I have updated the header with my revised forecasts following the trading statement and added some more information on broker consensus figures.
Some historical updates have been move to post 1 - I will just show the three most recent in the header, otherwise it will become stupidly long.|
|davidosh - by car companies do you mean dealers?|
|Pre registration is not a bad thing and indeed is essential to efficient stock managment. maximising margins and agreeing good financing terms with OEMs. The problem is SMMT figures show cars registered not sold and the figures are certainly open to manipulation. High figures can indicate a lot of supply being pushed onto the market and the hope is current figures are a fair reflection of end consumer demand. Its obviously a problem is unscrupulous / inefficient companies preregister a load of cars to secure sales bonuses and record them as sales when in fact they are just sat on the forecourt. These then may need to be shifted at reduced prices damaging residual values for everyone. Its a shame all retailers across the sector are not more open about their registration policies and don't provide more data on efficiency metrics like stock turnover periods etc.D|
|I wonder if the car dealerships would admit to the numbers they actually pre register each year as surely this becomes a double sale within a couple of months because it will get registered as a new car sold but earn minimal margin (to allow better margin overall on other sales) and then get sold possibly at a loss into the second hand market.|
|And old piece on pre-registrations but relevant:
24 July 2012 - 8:21am
Vertu Motors, owner of Bristol Street Motors, has reported a strong start to its financial year with like-for-like vehicle revenues growing by 5.1% in the four months to June 30.
The group told shareholders at its AGM that it has traded ahead of the prior year with like-for-like profit growth in each of the key areas of the business.
But chairman, Paul Williams, warned that pre-registration activity was starting to distort the market. He added that the Vertu Motors board believes there is an increasing trend for self-registered vehicles to be classified as private, rather than fleet, registrations within the market.
“The market is witnessing increased levels of self-registration by UK dealers which is inflating registration data compared to sales levels,” he said. “The group (Vertu Motors) continues to follow a policy of not engaging in significant self-registration activity.”
|Thanks, M7. If pre-registrations have been growing, that explains my difficulties in making sense of the new car like-for-like over the last few years.|
|Decent size buy just gone through after 3pm: 50000 at 62p (£31k).|
|stepone - the 80% figure you refer to is NOT related to pre registered vehicles.
This extract from Autocar 28 Oct 2016:-
"As many as one in five new cars are being pre-registered by dealers in order to meet manufacturers' sales targets".
Effortless Cool - standard practice for dealers is to classify a pre-reg vehicle as a used sale.|
|The 80% figure is repeated in an interview with Mike Hawes of the SMMT
"Interest rate rises, which could be triggered by rising inflation, would threaten a market where motorists regularly switch to new cars through loan and trade-in deals. With 80% of sales coming through such deals, Hawes said, vehicles had been affordable as long as interest rates were low"
More at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/british-car-industry-body-warns-of-sales-downturn-as-uncertainty-kicks-in
EffortlessCool - That's true, but I guess we would need to know if the total number of pre-reg cars sitting on dealer forecourts has gone up or down. Can't tell that from the figures. I don't know the answer to your second question.|
Am I correct to assume that pre-registered cars would count in the SMMT figures but are not necessarily sold as at the date those figures are compiled? If that is right, then the deficiency will be offset somewhat by the cars that were pre-registered and unsold one year ago but have since sold (been leased) during the year.
Also, do you know whether dealers class the sale of a pre-registered vehicle as new or as used?|
|I don't think the figure of 80% is correct. I think it's more likely to be 20%.|
|This morning SMMT issued the new car registration figures for December showing a total of 178,022 units which gives a final number for the 2016 year of 2,692,786.
Which is the highest ever number of new cars in a calendar year up 2.3% on 2015.
This represents the fifth consecutive year of growth.
SMMT CEO Commented "Despite 2016’s political and economic uncertainties, the UK’s new car market delivered another record performance as car makers offered an incredible range of innovative and high tech models".|
|Tomorrow will see the publication of new car registration figures for December & therefore the total number for 2016 year.
2015 saw a 4th consecutive year of growth with a total of 2.63million units registered, being an all time high.
The total figure for 2016 is set to exceed 2015 and be another record year.|
|Trading update prior to todays AGM..
Current year ahead of last year on like for like & total comparison.
Recent acquisitions look set to boost performance even if there is a dip triggered by wider economic issues. Aftersales profit looking particularly healthy, up 6% on last financial year so far.|
|AGM 4 January so as in previous years there should be a trading update|
|Ex Divi day today. 0.7pps dividend.|
|Given that the NED was offloading this quantity, it's quite reassuring that the share price has not really moved from the 59 to 61p range since the beginning of December.|
|It looks like the overhang has gone. NED announced sale of 500000 shares at 57. This sale has been worked over the last few weeks when a large amount of shares were available. Maybe a small rise now.|
|SMMT released their figures for UK new car registrations for the month of November this morning which show a 2.9% improvement over Nov 2015 with 184,101 vehicles registered.|
|Fair point EC but it would send the right signal of course.|
|Yes, but bear in mind that the directors already own 47% of the shares.|
|would we not think / like to see some director buying IF they had any conviction ?!
I'm trying to assess the valuation case here and it's cheap of course.
Place your bets.....but I think I'll keep away for now.....
I wonder if M & A is very real poss here.....would the acquisitive bull MMH be a poss bidder ?..NRI....|
|Header updated to reflect updated forecasts based on the recent finals. I have made some more cautious assumptions, given the uncertainty about the new car market, and the valuation has fallen somewhat. I still rate it as a STRONG BUY, however, and am happy to hold for the longer term, regardless of current price volatility.|
|Well in terms of their outlook commentary, CAMB have certainly given themselves massive scope for "We told you so" commentary should there be a downturn.|
|EPS only up 53%. I really don't like the look of that! The real problem here is the pessimism, the analysts and the chartists all see an industry top forming and the institutions for now appear to believe, with the industry maintaining a cautious stance to cover their asses. While there is an air of uncertainity, human nature is to over react and the bad things tend not to happen or have such a great impact when everyone is focussed on them like this. Think about it!|