Caffyns Share Discussion Threads

[beazer2] 28/10/2013 17:10

Went into these today on the expectation of a rise to £7. I concur with previous posts that the nav is over £7(adjusted for property revaluation) and if the pension provision reverses when interest rates rise the nav will be over £10. The assets are freeholds of car dealerships in the wealthy south east of England, directors have been buying, the dividend of around 3% is covered 3 times and today Pendragon PDG produced an update of profit above expectations indicating the strength of car sales and servicing and INCH last week confirmed similarly strong levels of activity.

[eezymunny] 05/9/2013 16:42

Re pension liability, worth noting that they say "The discount rate used to value the liabilities is related to the yield on Government securities and this rate has reduced during the year from 5.1% at 31 March 2012 to 4.3% at 31 March 2013, increasing the scheme's liabilities. Each 0.1% reduction in the discount rate increases the liabilities by between £1.0m and £1.5m."

Well the 30 yr gilt yield has moved up from 3.1% on 31 March to 3.7% today. That might already mean a £6-9m reduction in the deficit.

In a non QE world 30yr yield is generally inflation+2%, so that's around 4.5% currently.

A return to "normal" rates would eliminate a lot of the deficit. Indeed, the fund was in surplus yr ending March 2008.

[big7ime] 04/8/2013 22:02

A recovery in the economy and car sales good indicator will be good for share price However, have noticed the rather large (infact massive ) pension fund liability which I'm not keen on. On further research, probably unlikely to be takeover target due to family holding unless they want out, but at this historically low share price doubt that.

[big7ime] 02/8/2013 11:06

I think Everyone's on their holidays
Inchcape (INCH) reports excellent trading this morning and the sirs are taking off!
Sept may see similar move here IMHO

[big7ime] 02/8/2013 09:04

Caffyns yesterday bought it's own shares again. Cheap as chips and don't they know it.

[big7ime] 02/8/2013 08:36

Takeover target? At this price as with HR Owen car dealership recently, looks very undervalued. HR Owen having similar increases in sales has seen it's share price double in last 12mths. A Philipine investment co has bid for it. Caffyns price trades on prosp p/e around 9 which is historically very low and should increase as business levels continue to recover Dyor

[big7ime] 01/8/2013 15:27

Mr Bruce-Smith has increased his holding to 6.6% in the company. He must also believe this share is undervalued at present. IMO an increase to £7 in not too distant future would be fairer value in line with sector.

[big7ime] 31/7/2013 08:52

Properties not currently being sold are undervalued in balance sheet by 4.5m, and with those up for sale could provide a windfall for the company to reduce debt/ use to redevelop their sites.

[big7ime] 29/7/2013 10:22

sales increasing 22%, if profits also increase by this percentage, would have a p/e less than 10. The dividend is currently 2.9% dyor

[big7ime] 26/7/2013 09:11

Positive Agm statement, all directors purchasing shares recently, sales up 22%. could be the start of a recovery for this provincial car dealership - own franchises for Audi, volkswagon, skoda and others in south England. Sp very low compared to assets, were £11 10yrs ago, see chart, own their properties where book values are conservatively est, plans to sell some, takeover target maybe. Worth a punt IMO

[simon templar qc] 04/5/2012 15:51

Been missed by a lot today good luck guys I will be watching this with interest...

[ed 123] 04/5/2012 14:46

Ooooooooooooooo, yes. Fight! Fight! Fight!

To mix metaphors, the Caffyns' golden goose is withering on the vine.

[simon templar qc] 04/5/2012 14:12

Shareholder action good look guys...

[pugugly] 20/2/2012 10:08

Drpped by on today;'s fall - Conclusion - Going nowhere - Very low yield for what it is. Possible pensin problems - Terrible spread and (imo) a potential share overhang from GAM and EPS Enhancing Earnings Ltd.

Could be interesting as NTAV over £7 per share but no indication as to how management will be able to unlock.

Any thoughts ?@?

[aishah] 26/11/2009 14:55

Good Results but no one seems to want their 'Caffyns' today. Only up a few %

[undervaluedassets] 24/11/2009 15:45

only fly -

mighty short of cash

[ed 123] 11/9/2009 17:16

Caffyns has been left behind in the scramble for LOOK, PDG and INCH. Another director buy reported today. They seem confident. I'd guess that the bullish trading reported in the agm interim management statement ( has continued.

A reminder from that statement ...

"In July, our new car sales are over 40% up on last year. We have new car orders in hand for delivery in the new registration month of September which are double the level at this time last year.

We continue to make good progress selling used cars and unit sales are up 17% on a like for like basis in the quarter to June and gross profit margins are significantly improved.

The first half year ends on 30 September. The interims should be good.

[aishah] 25/8/2009 14:21

Looking good recently. Director buy; illiquid but managed to get some few days ago. Well below NAV. Investor agitating too. Maybe some news on the way?

[aishah] 11/8/2009 21:26

CFYN - Here's a company valued at half its real assets that's making a profit and looks good for a long-term recovery.

[ed 123] 10/8/2009 08:10

Thanks, westcountryboy. :-)

If you've not already done so, take a look at the 10 year chart (sorry, don't know how to paste it).

Unlike other motor retailers, there's been no low price rights issue here, so a climb all the way back looks attainable.

A good one to hold in a SIPP or ISA, don't try to trade it.

All imho, dyor, etc.

[westcountryboy] 09/8/2009 16:26

I wanted some on Thursday when bid seemed to be 360p. Had to pay 370p for 500 and no more were available at that price all day. Was quoted 400p and 410p for 1000 from two MMs.

[ed 123] 07/8/2009 12:47

500 shares bought today and the mms moved the price up 15p.

Good move on tiny volume. Could mms be short of stock?

[ed 123] 06/8/2009 13:42

Thanks, GingerPlant. :-)

Only one bit I'd disagree with, "high of 1,150p last July". The high of 1150p was in July 2007. Other than that, it reads well to me.

SP continues to tread water, while Inchcape, Lookers and Pendragon climb. Ironic, since the asset backing here makes Caffyns a safer bet (imho). Maybe the market will wake up nearer to the interims (November). The interims should be good, due to a combination of the good operational performance, cost savings, and improved market.

Apropos the latter, the SMMT today announced the first increase in car sales for 15 months.