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[la forge] 24/2/2018 11:35

BP Sees Peak Oil Demand In 2030s
By Nick Cunningham - Feb 23, 2018, 11:59 PM CST BP

BP says oil demand will peak in the 2030s, and that EVs will rise 100-fold to capture about a third of the car market.

BP released its annual Energy Outlook, with forecasts through 2040. Unlike in years past, this version sees more upheaval on the horizon as the energy landscape evolves rapidly. “Indeed, the continuing rapid growth of renewables is leading to the most diversified fuel mix ever seen,” BP CEO Bob Dudley said in a statement. “Abundant and diversified energy supplies will make for a challenging marketplace. Don’t be fooled by the recent firming in oil prices: the focus on efficiency, reliability and capital discipline is here to stay.”

BP believes that just about all of the growth in energy demand will come from fast-growing developing economies, with China and India alone accounting for half of the total growth in global energy demand through 2040.

BP offered several different forecasts, but all predict a peak in oil demand in the 2030s, with varying degrees of decline thereafter. Its central forecast sees peak oil demand in the mid-2030s at about 110 million barrels per day (mb/d), with consumption plateauing and declining through 2040 and beyond. In other words, demand grows for another two decades, rising by 15 mb/d, before consumption tops out.

BP sees the number of EVs on the road surging to 320 million by 2040, capturing about a third of the market in terms of miles traveled. That equates roughly to a 100-fold increase from the 3 million EVs on the road today. It is also sharply up from the 100 million EVs BP expected to be on the road in 2035 in last year’s Energy Outlook.

Yet, it doesn’t equate to the total EV revolution that many hope to see. In fact, BP still sees carbon emissions rising by 10 percent through 2040, a scenario incompatible with what scientists say are needed to hit climate targets. And in BP’s most aggressive scenario for EVs in which many more governments follow in the footsteps of France and the UK and put in place a ban on gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040, BP still only sees EVs eliminating about 10 mb/d worth of demand, which would be about 10 percent of the current market. “It’s a big number,” BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale says, but “even in that scenario, oil demand in 2040 is still higher than it is today.” BP says carbon pricing is needed to drive down emissions.

Dale argues that cars will be used more in the future, traveling longer distances, but that autonomous vehicles, electricity and efficiency will offset the increase in oil consumption from more vehicles on the road. “The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers — even with really rapid growth,” Dale said, according to the FT.

Dale predicts the average EV in the future will be used to travel about two and a half times more than the current internal combustion vehicle. “What we expect to see in the 2030s is a huge growth in shared mobility autonomous cars...Once you don’t have to pay for a driver, the cost of taking one of those share mobility fleets services will fall by about 40 or 50 percent,” Dale told reporters. The upshot is that demand for crude oil used in cars remains largely flat at 18.6 mb/d in 2040, down just a hair from 18.7 mb/d in 2016.

Another interesting prediction was the expected impact of regulations on plastics. BP sees taxes and regulations on things like plastic bags will help eat into crude oil demand by about 2 mb/d. Still, petrochemicals grow in importance over time, taking a greater share of the demand pie as EVs keep demand flat in transportation.

Related: Brazil’s Coming Oil Boom Will Weigh On Oil Prices

The opinions of other oil majors vary on this hotly contested subject. Officials from Royal Dutch Shell have said that a peak could come as soon as 2025, whereas ExxonMobil and Chevron see demand rising steadily for the foreseeable future, with no peak in sight.

In that sense, there is a bit of difference between the European and American oil majors. Shell, BP and Total have begun stepping up their investments into natural gas, utilities and renewable energy. Royal Dutch Shell recently bought First Utility, a UK-based utility. It also purchased a U.S. solar company last month. Total purchased SunPower years ago and is now looking to building up generating assets in France to rival incumbents. BP recently announced plans to jump back into the solar sector after pulling out years ago.

To be sure, these are marginal forays into clean energy; the majors are still overwhelmingly invested in oil and gas, and will continue to be for years. Yet, they mark a small but significant pivot away from oil.

“The outlook here shows that the world is going to need all forms of energy,” BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said at a news conference Tuesday, according to the WSJ. “Gas has to be part of the transition, if not a destination fuel” for lowering carbon emissions.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

[linton5] 23/2/2018 19:57

Looks like that fi the fields o fife pal

[scottishfield] 23/2/2018 17:49

Maybe turning up at this point.

[hellscream] 23/2/2018 13:53

problem is those so called millennials are all on tax credits(and so pay no tax), so who's gonna pay the tax? renewable are being subsidised as it is (and also provide hardly any power output). first lets get rid of coal first, than talk oil and gas.

[sarkasm] 23/2/2018 11:40

We need to bust these energy sector “myths”, says BP boss

Written by Allister Thomas - 23/02/2018 11:10 am

Bernard Looney
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Low oil prices being bad news, seeing the transition to low-carbon as a particular challenge and a perception that the industry is not attractive to young people are “myths”, according to BP’s upstream boss.

Bernard Looney has been speaking in London, taking on what he sees as misconceptions about the sector.

On oil price, he acknowledged that the drop has caused “a lot of pain” in “oil towns from Aberdeen to Luanda and Baku to Houston”.

However, he added that three years of the price rarely going above $70 a barrel has been good news for customers and innovation in the industry.
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“It has forced us to confront inflation and waste. Those issues were obscured in a $100 world, but they were brutally exposed in a $50 one.

“We face a choice between evolution and irrelevance – and we are evolving. We have embedded new levels of capital discipline in projects and new levels of efficiency in operations. We have not just applied new technology, but the newest technology, and not just from our industry.”

He said that BP’s upstream are driving efficiency through adaptability and digital innovation.

“I think we need to realise the full potential of technology to support safety. We can reduce a lot of risks to people by using drones, crawlers and robots.

“The second point is that the combined impact of supercomputing and artificial intelligence is helping us see our world through new eyes. We can uncover resources. We can compare wells instantly. We can pinpoint corrosion risks by applying machine learning to 40 years’ worth of data. Who would have thought 10 years ago that Upstream folks would come to conferences like this to compare algorithms and petaflops?

“This is major change and I am not sure we would have moved so far and so fast without the urgency created by the 2014 crash.”


“The notion that millennials see this as a sunset industry. . .I’m a little more optimistic.”



On moving to low-carbon, he conceded that the move will be a challenge, “but the big picture is a sustainable environment. A positive outcome for humanity. This is something for everyone to support.”

He added that, in BP’s energy outlook published on Tuesday, even in the fastest transition the world would still get 40% of its energy from oil and gas in the year 2040.

On Mr Looney’s final point, he rejected the concept that young people view the industry as one in decline.

“Let me take on the notion that the industry is sitting on a demographic timebomb because baby-boomers are retiring and millennials see this as a sunset industry.

“I’m a little more optimistic.

“First, if the world is going to get 40% or more of its energy from oil and gas in 2040, then there’s a career in energy for today or tomorrow’s graduate or apprentice.

“Second, that career can go beyond oil and gas as the transition unfolds – into wind, or solar, or carbon capture, or vehicle charging. What could be more rewarding than to help steer the world through this unique period of transition? If you want to make a difference, it’s hard to think of a bigger one.

“Third, new technology is providing opportunities for a new generation of skills from artificial intelligence to bioscience, materials to robotics.

“We will always face challenges, but those of the last few years have been good for us and prepared us for a new road ahead.

“It is a road where we should not question progress, but lead it. Our industry led the world into the age of affordable energy. Now it is time to lead the world into the age of sustainable energy.

[waldron] 23/2/2018 09:18

Thursday 22 February 2018 4:47pm
BlackRock snaps up three UK solar assets for £15m with Lightsource BP
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Courtney Goldsmith
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BlackRock's solar portfolio is growing (Source: Getty)

US-based investment giant BlackRock has added 13.5 megawatts (MW) of solar assets to its growing UK renewables portfolio after agreeing a deal with partner Lightsource BP worth £15m.

Through its Kingfisher partnership with Lightsource, BlackRock Real Assets agreed to buy three solar assets from China-owned CTF Solar.

The acquisition was made through BlackRock's Renewable Income UK Fund, and Lightsource BP will be responsible for the asset management and long-term maintenance of all three sites, which are located at Wormit Farm in Fife, Scotland (5 MW), Stanton under Bardon Farm in Leicestershire, England (3.6 MW) and Gretton in Winchcombe, Gloucestershire (4.9 MW).

Read more: BlackRock is adding to its UK solar investments

BlackRock Real Assets manages more than $4.9bn (£3.5bn) of equity assets globally, including investments in more than 40 solar projects in the UK, representing about 350 MW of capacity.

“We are delighted to add these three solar project acquisitions to our growing UK solar portfolio," said Rory O'Connor, managing director and head of renewable power for Europe at BlackRock. He said the fund aims to continue building its portfolio of solar projects in the UK.

“Kingfisher has now established itself as one of the most competitive acquisition platforms in the UK for utility scale solar assets," said Paul McCartie, group chief investment officer of Lightsource BP.

Lightsource rebranded as Lightsource BP late last year after the British oil major announced it would invest $200m in the solar company over three years for a 43 per cent stake in the business.

[hellscream] 22/2/2018 17:43

loser Britain- lowest growth in the world
lowest pay growth in the world
lowest stockmarket growth in the world
lowest pensions in the world

but it payes the highest welfare in the world

[hellscream] 22/2/2018 15:26

non-EU citizens means African, right?, oh that explains why the markets never raise. someones gotta pay.

[hellscream] 22/2/2018 15:04

are we allowed to make money in this day of age?

[grupo] 22/2/2018 13:32

Why the Next Oil Boom Will be Fueled by Blockchain

FN Media Group Presents OilPrice.com News Commentary

News provided by
OilPrice.com

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LONDON, February 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

Big Oil is due for a disruption. The world's most important industry has been carrying on without any significant changes in its day to day routine for far too long. But now, the new tech on the block has its sights set on the multi-trillion-dollar oil and gas sector. Included in today's commentary: British Petroleum (NYSE: BP), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Pengrowth Energy Corp. (NYSE: PGH), Pembina Pipeline Corp. (NYSE: PBA), TransCanada (NYSE: TRP).

It's official: Blockchain technology has infiltrated Big Oil. The hype behind blockchain has reached a full-blown frenzy. And for good reason.

The technology, which creates secure ledgers for digital transactions and rapidly accelerates the pace at which transactions can be made, has the potential to disrupt every major industry: real estate, shipping, banking and healthcare.

Blockchain is truly revolutionary, and Big Oil is finally catching on.

In an industry that has used technology to reduce breakeven costs to all-time lows, create gigantic drilling rigs run by robots, and even tap reserves located 10 miles below the sea, the oil and gas sector has been slow to jump on the blockchain bandwagon…until now.

According to a report from the World Economic Forum from 2017, a digital transformation has already swept across the energy industry.

Now, blockchain is taking it one step further.

Majors like BP and Shell are making headlines with plans to utilize blockchain tech to completely transform how energy is bought and sold.

Smaller players with big ambitions like Canada's Petroteq (PQEFF; PQE) are preparing to revolutionize the day to day operations of potentially every oil operation on the planet. Petroteq could utilize new technologies to tap massive new reserves of energy, such as the Utah oil sands, while radically reducing environmental risk.

With U.S. President Donald Trump planning a trillion dollar infrastructure program, the possibilities for upgrading American oil and gas systems throughout the country are immense.

Integrating blockchain into supply-line management and logistics could dramatically cut costs.

Major Innovation

The oil majors are waking up to blockchain possibilities.

BP began experimenting with blockchain technology in 2017. David Eyton, BP's head of technology, noted: "There are uses for blockchain that could give us a competitive advantage."

In BP's pilot program, the company began working with Italian supermajor Eni, and Austria's Wien Energie on a trading platform using blockchain technology.

And in November, BP joined a blockchain consortium with fellow industry heavyweights Shell and Statoil, in addition to commodity trading houses - Gunvor, Koch Supply & Trading, and Mercuria, with the financial backing of Dutch ABN Amro, ING, and French Societe Generale.

Patrick Arnaud, Managing Director for Trade & Commodity Finance, ING, said: "The commodity finance industry is hampered by nature by inefficiencies and outdated procedures. By applying blockchain technology, we expect that we can eliminate a lot of these, making the overall process faster and more cost effective."

Royal Dutch/Shell is taking it a step further, investing in a minority stake in the distributed ledger startup Applied Blockchain. The blockchain firm has created platforms across a range of sectors including telecom, manufacturing, and more.'

Petroteq and the Blockchain

While the supermajors are focused on trading, others are looking to the tech for far more creative endeavors.

Petroteq (PQEFF; PQE), a company that made waves in the sector with its revolutionary patented oil sands tech, has set out on a mission to completely overhaul the industry's inefficient and error prone supply chain management protocols.

Petroteq was recently cited by Geoffrey Cann, a Director at Deloitte specializing in the oil and gas industry, as a contender for blockchain technologies in the energy arena.

Oil and gas is a global endeavor in which huge inventories are held, ordered, transported, and distributed through multiple channels all over the globe. When things go wrong, productivity is slowed, production levels fall, and cargo is lost. This means billions in profit is potentially taken off the table.

And with the development of new energy sources such as shale gas, tight oil, oil sands, and coal seam gas reaching a critical mass, it's more important now than ever to rethink traditional supply chains.

This is the path on which Petroteq has embarked. And with the help of blockchain technology, the company is positioning itself as a leader in this race.

Petrobloq, Petroteq's very own blockchain consortium, is looking to reshape the industry. From drilling, to a finished petroleum-based product and everywhere in between, Petrobloq aims to track, monitor, and account for every drop of petroleum on a transparent, immutable, and secure blockchain.

The first member of the Petrobloq consortium is Latin America's second largest energy company, PEMEX, which made headlines as the first petroleum company to allow cryptocurrency as a payment option in participating gas stations. In joining the consortium, the company looks to soar to new heights.

Utilizing Petroteq's (PQE) technology, Mexico's national oil company will become one of the world's largest non-publicly traded companies to introduce a blockchain-based supply chain management platform. An endeavor which is set to bring PEMEX's processes from production to sale to an entirely new level, ushering in a new era of efficiency and profitability.

These heavy hitting partnerships will certainly disrupt the entire industry. Data will be shared seamlessly between joint ventures. The time it takes to cut a deal will be reduced significantly. And perhaps most importantly, the middle man essentially disappears, reducing costs for every sub-section of the industry.

American Energy Dominance

The dramatic improvements planned for U.S. infrastructure will incorporate innovations from companies like Petroteq.

President Trump announced a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan at the State of the Union Address in January. That means billions will be invested into dilapidated oil and gas infrastructure.

The Trump Administration has made energy dominance a high priority. The Utah oil sands will play a huge part in advancing the future of American energy.

And Petroteq (PQEFF; PQE) has technology to unlock the full potential of the Utah fields and their 32 billion barrels of oil.

And unlike the dirty, expensive tar sands of Canada, Petroteq will be able to exploit the Utah oil sands in an environmentally-friendly, cost-effective way through their proprietary technology.

Once the fields of Utah are on-line, U.S. imports of oil from overseas, which are already in decline, could end altogether. The importance of Utah oil sands will push demand for it up and up, making it some of the most valuable oil on the market.

With its mastery of blockchain, Petroteq will be at the head of the pack. But its innovative drive forward is sure to be matched by other companies in the oil and gas sector.

In such a globally connected economy, the impact of transitioning to blockchain tech will be profound and will likely turn any industry on its head.

From oil majors like BP and Shell, to smaller innovators like Petroteq (PQE), massive potential is set to be unlocked in the oil and gas industry through the innovative use of new technology.

Oil and gas companies using tech to change the industry:

British Petroleum (NYSE: BP) is a multi-national oil and gas supermajor, and the sixth largest energy company on the planet. The company is over 100 years old and is not afraid of reinventing the wheel. And that's exactly what they're doing.

As blockchain forced its way into nearly every industry, BP took note. In October 2017, BP begun experimenting with a blockchain-based oil trading platform, with the goal of implementing "practical and ethical" uses of the technology.

With BP's forward-thinking mindset and vast amount of resources and assets, the company is always looking to learn about and adopt new technology.

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) is household name. As one of the largest energy companies on the planet, Shell knows the industry through and through. Shell also has its eyes on the blockchain industry. The company is no stranger to technology, and sees blockchain's clear benefits, and looks to become an early adopter within the industry.

With BP, Shell is leading a blockchain movement within the industry that is set to revolutionize the way oil and gas is bought and sold. Their platform is set to be launched by the end of 2018, and investors are clearly on the edge of their seats in anticipation.

Pengrowth Energy Corp. (NYSE: PGH): Another company that looks to have halted its falling stock price and is now preparing to ride the bullish sentiment in oil markets. Having shed a lot of excess weight this year in massive asset selloffs, investors can expect a much leaner and meaner Pengrowth in 2018.

For those investors who like to follow the smart money, billionaire investor Seymour Schulich bought millions of extra shares in Pengrowth in early October, boosting his position from 19 percent of the stock to 24 percent. He claims that he is confident that oil and gas is going up.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. (NYSE: PBA): The North American pipeline industry has had a tough year, but the recent approval of the Keystone XL pipeline route and the growing need for transportation capacity should act as a boon for the sector.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. has ridden the oil price crash in an impressive manner, maintaining a good stock price and increasing its dividend. This is a stock that pays you to wait, and as the sector continues to improve it is likely investors will see good gains here.

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP): is a major oil and energy company based in Calgary, Canada. The company owns and operates energy infrastructure throughout North America. TransCanada is one of the continent's largest providers of gas storage, and owns and has interests in approximately 11,800 megawatts of power generations.

With TransCanada's massive influence throughout North America, it is no wonder that the company is among one of Canada's highest valued energy companies. Investors can feel comfortable with the company due to its huge and diverse portfolio, and continuing eye for success.

By Michael Kern

[deanforester] 21/2/2018 17:58

Very true. I spent a lot of time studying how coal could replace oil and gas, effectively going back to the 1930s. Global warming hadn't been invented then.

[cliveb] 20/2/2018 17:53

Peak oil, again, I heard the story many years ago but then it was the opposite of what is being said now,
last time around it was that demand would outstrip supply, and we would all be in a terrible mess by 1987, and it had nothing to do with George Orwell,
But as Im sure you will appreciate, nothing at all happened, in fact quite the opposite was true,
a bit like global warming, from where I sit it is certainly cooler,
you should put some weight on the word "COULD" in the first line, and file it with similar words like MAYBE, PERHAPS, IF,

[waldron] 20/2/2018 16:47

Christopher Alessi

LONDON--Global demand for crude oil could peak in the next two decades, as renewables like solar power surge faster than expected to meet a greater share of the world's energy needs, BP PLC said Tuesday.

The world's appetite for oil and other liquid fuels could continue to grow until around 2035, hitting 110.3 million barrels a day--compared with 95 million barrels a day in 2015--before plateauing and falling off in the run up to 2040, the British oil-and-gas giant said Tuesday in the main future scenario, releasing its annual energy outlook.

Peak demand could represent a potential reckoning for energy companies that had grown accustomed to crude consumption growing almost every year for over a century. Already, BP, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other companies have been investing more in natural gas, which has become a vital fuel for producing electricity, and experimenting with renewable production.

"The outlook here shows that the world is going to need all forms of energy," BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said at a news conference Tuesday. "Gas has to be part of the transition, if not a destination fuel" for lowering carbon emissions.

BP's outlook shows peak-oil demand coming more quickly than it has forecast in the past. Until now, the company has said crude demand wouldn't stop growing until the 2040s.

Unlike competitors, BP releases annual forecasts making predictions about a range of issues including industry investment, supply and demand. Shell has said peak demand could come as soon as 2025 while Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. don't foresee a peak.

BP's central forecast assumes that current government policies, technology and societal preferences will evolve in the future similarly to how they have in recent years. Big recent changes have included countries like the U.K. and France planning severe restrictions on the combustion engine and a major push for electric vehicles in China.

BP stressed the central forecast was one of six possible scenarios, none of which it would endorse as most likely. All the scenarios show oil demand eventually peaking before 2040 and then declining.

In this scenario, renewable sources of energy would increase five-fold to provide around 14% of primary energy globally, contributing to the most diversified energy mix ever.

"By 2040, oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each account for around a quarter of the world's energy. More than 40% of the overall increase in energy demand is met by renewable energy," said Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist.

Oil consumption should grow by an average of 0.14% per year between 2016 and 2040, according to the BP scenario, compared with predictions of 0.19%, 0.12% and 0.17% annual oil growth consumption by, respectively, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Still, BP expects personal vehicles and industrial trucks "to be dominated by oil," with demand for the fuel comprising around 85% of total transport fuel demand in 2040, compared with 94% today. The majority of that demand should come from developing economies like China and India, BP said.

At the same time, BP's evolving transition scenario predicts the number of electric cars on the road will rise to roughly 320 million by 2040, accounting for about 30% of passenger vehicle kilometers. That increase should be bolstered by the emergence of fully-autonomous vehicles in the next decade, most of which are expected to be electrically powered.

BP's views on peak-oil demand aren't universally accepted in the industry. Last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said oil demand would rise as high as 120 million barrels a day over the next two to three decades.

Write to Christopher Alessi at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 20, 2018 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)

[hellscream] 20/2/2018 15:22

what fear.. the glut is almost gone.

[tradejunkie2] 20/2/2018 14:00

Do you smell the fear?

[ladywormer] 18/2/2018 11:45

Peny - are you eyeing up anything? Your IG Index was a great call.