Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[roper] 04/2/2016 07:09

Amongst all the positive spin in the numbers...

"Whilst Q2 revenues were slightly lower than we planned...." Hmmmm!

[stavros28] 03/2/2016 23:21

Good buy at this valuation.

[elrico] 02/2/2016 19:28

sg31 - ref 1956 fair comment, A little harsh on my part perhaps. No point in me going back and editing it, it looks dodgy.

[nugacity] 02/2/2016 00:42

No doubt they drink water too! So we have a dry February/March etc coming up?

[hpcg] 01/2/2016 13:11

GaryMott - I agree those stories were designed to scare, and I wished they'd worked on me! Really shorts just needed to say look at the figures.

[jeffian] 01/2/2016 12:57

If AVN got on and filled their sats and the cash was flowing into their coffers, none of that would matter. It's the fact that they don't/can't that leaves room for speculation, mischievous or otherwise.

[elrico] 01/2/2016 11:17

sg31 - out of interest, what are these "made up stories to try to blacken the name of the target". Surely you don't deny the quoted level of debt, limited cash reserves,bond yields and the significance of this for a company needing cash and of course....how many times has AVANTI missed its own stated targets on serial occasions. These are facts!

[dangersimpson2] 01/2/2016 09:03

By that definition you would never let a company fail, just keep giving capital to bad management with bad products. Your share losses are not really mistakes just 'good samaritan' gifts to needy causes like millionaire directors ;-)

The extra capital to bad businesses would then mean that less capital went to good managements developing good products and we would all be worse off.

[sg31] 01/2/2016 09:01

I've sold out as I posted earlier. I'm not short.

Just one comment... I do despise those who are short and use made up stories to try to blacken the name of the target in their own self interest. If the company is not a good investment the price will go down, if not it won't.

Some people should be ashamed.

[weatherman] 01/2/2016 07:33

Have you ever read the story of the good Samaritan? If someone needs help you help them, not mug them and rob everything they have.

[jeffian] 31/1/2016 13:08

I'm afraid I 'capitulated' some weeks ago (161) as I just don't see the revenues building fast enough (and certainly not in line with original forecasts). Managed to lose money twice here, once by investing just before the launch of H1 and then compounding it to 'top up' at 290 on the opportunity presented by poor results. I suppose they may get it right eventually but I've lost the will to hang around and find out.

Couldn't disagree more with weatherman. You can't short a successful company. If "Shorting is like sportsmen who gamble and take bribes to throw matches. They determine the outcome of their own 'investment.' By shorting a stock you drive down its share price" wouldn't the same be true of going long? I would love to "determine the outcome of my own investment". If only everything I bought went up!

[bwakem] 31/1/2016 12:45

The results will either be deceit or obfuscation. The cat is out of the bag on this one though so everyone will be looking for it. Unless a minor miracle has taken place the results can only be dire.

[weatherman] 30/1/2016 17:07

Shorting is like sportsmen who gamble and take bribes to throw matches. They determine the outcome of their own 'investment.' By shorting a stock you drive down its share price so it is much harder to turn debt into equity making default more likely. But Avanti has several years to raise sufficient revenue to start covering the debt. Furthermore, the assets are worth more than the debt and equity.

[hpcg] 30/1/2016 12:25

elrico - You took the words out of my mouth. I am not short at the moment. I have locked in profits ahead of the next financial statement. For what ever reason the results on 12 November were well received even though in my opinion they looked awful. The same could happen on Thursday so, data dependent obviously, I will look to go short again, hopefully into a higher price.

weatherman - the ownership of Avanti passes from equity to debt holders. There would likely be no service interruption. Indeed Avanti would probably file before they ran out of cash to ensure that was the case.

[weatherman] 29/1/2016 23:53

Shorters ignore the fact that AVN is well supported by government...

[elrico] 29/1/2016 22:27

Estienne - what’s your point with the TW £7 ref? If I were you I would be more concerned with these facts;
1: AVN is running out of cash
2: High cash burn
3: 500+ mil in debt
4: Needs to raise funds before summer
5: Bond yields at 20% indicate raising new money is going to be near impossible without existing holders being diluted out of existence.

Do some research on what happened to AFREN in 2015. It's the same situation here. The fact AVN keep making promises and don't keep them and keep missing their own targets will not be lost on bond holders and money-men.

Your best case is AVN issue a few ramp RNS's and you bail out at £2+...if it ever gets to those levels again, which is possible with an illiquid share.

Cards on the table...I don't have a short open because I am waiting for the ramp and pump from AVN which will surely come very soon. I don't like shorting as a rule, but will when companies have a history of creative accounting because they deserve it.

[nugacity] 29/1/2016 18:08

Really cheap at £7 with Hylas #1 launch due - word on the street was £23 once the bandwidth was sold and other satellites in place. Remember it well.

I am still hoping and if I live long enough, it could be achieved but lets see £2.3 first :O)

[estienne] 29/1/2016 16:28

TW pushed this stock for all it was worth and telling people to buy at 700p!

[elrico] 29/1/2016 02:42

Standish - less than 100m cash, may last till late summer 2016. 500+m in debt, bond yields 20%+ which suggests equity is worth zip. Afren went the same way in 2015. The same will happen here unless the company issues equity or more bonds, something it said it wouldn't do again, oh it did last year.

[hpcg] 28/1/2016 17:32

elrico - quite. It is always the message and the evidence which is important, and not the personality. This should be patently obvious when high profile billionaires take contrary positions.