Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[bonzo] 24/10/2017 14:47

Poacher are you suggesting that badly paid management performs better than well paid management? Which is more likely to succeed? Bsdly paid management or well paid management? The management costs are small compared with the cost of running the business... pay them well and make them deliver!

[lantanatony] 24/10/2017 14:30

Poacher45 has his view,others may differ.
But one thing is for sure Therapeutics is a big boys game!
Management and the right financial support are key even if you get very lucky.
Finncap and the like wont get Avacta into the true therapeutic space.
They need a deal with a significant player then the shares will move.
Be lucky.

[poacher45] 24/10/2017 13:54

E1nstein you just keep taking the rights issues up. My point is the company has failed to make a commercial success of any project so far and nothing convinces me that this is going to be any different. Wan tried for ages to promote this company and he gave up after all the failures. To me the money is not going in R and D but ending up in high salaries to management. I may be wrong I hope I am I want British companies to succeed but to me this is just a badly run company.

[e1nstein] 24/10/2017 11:29

Poacher45 - others have responded to you on this point before but just to say it again - when Avacta bought the Affimer IP in 2012 the strategy changed and the company focused on Affimers because that is a much bigger opportunity and they sold one revenue generating part of the business so it makes no sense to talk about a strategy that changed five years ago. In my opinion Affimers is a growth story and if you want the upside of Affimer therapeutics then R&D investment (or overheads as you call it) needs to be significant and that is what money was raised for in 2015. I have never heard anyone else talk about profit in relation to an early stage biotech platform.

[poacher45] 24/10/2017 10:44

When is it going to make a profit? From memory I think Alistair forecast a profit in 2012 but several projects have bit the dust since then. Every time it is the same story ever increasing overheads jam tomorrow but tomorrow never comes.

[timbo003] 24/10/2017 09:40

Avacta were at the Shares Magazine Investor seminar last Thursday, with Alistair Smith (CEO) giving the presentation, some good Q&As at the end too (see link to video below):


I think affirmers are a very neat idea and seem to do the same job as monoclonals (but offer the opportunity to be simpler, faster and more adaptable in many cases). The reagent side certainly looks as if it could become a viable business, without much more investment, although the therapeutics side is very early stage and is likely to gobble cash for some time to come.

When I talked to Alistair afterward the meeting, I managed to glean a few more factoids:


* They have raised a total of around £40m - 50 m from shareholders so far, i.e. the same level as the market cap. Unfortunately, they no longer qualify for EIS funding, they will need more funding (obviously) and Alistair seemed to be very interested in using Primary Bid for funding rounds in the future.

* The therapeutic side of the business is very early stage and will be cash hungry, the reagent side is almost at a stage where it could stand alone without further funding.

* I asked about the broker valuations. The broker is Finncap (you can get those from Research Tree). Alistair said that the broker has valued the reagent side of the business to be the same (roughly) as the market cap, so the therapeutic side is in for free (sort of).

* Ultimately they see splitting the business as a possible (and attractive) way forward, whereby existing shareholders would have shares in each new component company.


I like this company its technology and the management, but I will wait to see if there is another share offer in the coming months where Primary Bid get involved and use that as the catalyst for a decision to invest.

[e1nstein] 20/10/2017 16:38

The company are holding a private shareholder event to present the prelim results. The RNS is on the web site but I dont think I saw it when it came out yesterday. Sign up.

In response to The Drewster - Matt Johnson's presentation in San Diego last week is on the web site - second one down in the company presentations list. Confusing since the first one was obviously also at San Diego but in June. Prelim presentation also there higher up the list.

RNS:

Avacta Group plc (AIM: AVCT), the developer of Affimer® biotherapeutics and reagents, will be hosting a Private Shareholder event on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 at 2.00 pm until 4.00 pm at finnCap's offices, 60 New Broad St, London EC2M 1JJ and will take the form of a Company presentation to update shareholders on progress followed by a Q&A session.

The presentation for the event will also be made available on the Company's website.

Investors and shareholders who wish to attend the event should register their interest at: [e-mail].

[the drewster] 18/10/2017 17:20

presentations section has some new stuff, but not the one from this month (I have it if anyone wants to PM me with contact details)

[lantanatony] 18/10/2017 10:16

Drewster
Thanks for the head's up.
However,while the market continues to ignore Avacta,we are in the hands of the market maker's.
Unfortunately they don't seem convinced.
Mr Smith has some work to do!

[the drewster] 16/10/2017 09:27

I was at a medical research conference this weekend, and several researchers were genuinely excited at the Affimer benefits ... difficult to prise any specifics out of them, but promising.

[contact2fsnetcouk] 13/10/2017 19:49

TD

A well placed "the" in your comment otherwise, it would have read "on the cusp of the chart breaking downtrend".

:-)

[mrangry2] 13/10/2017 13:53

Sorry, you should have gone! :-)

[lantanatony] 13/10/2017 13:09

A report back on the San Diego presentation would be helpful.

[the drewster] 11/10/2017 10:31

on the cusp of the chart breaking the downtrend.

[the drewster] 10/10/2017 11:16

Bought another 5k to add to the squillions in the cupboard - the potential interest from this show in the US could be a game changer.

[the drewster] 10/10/2017 09:27

Very nice (some might say ideal) audience for Dr Matt Johnson to show all the fact based evidence to show how Affirmers can save $$$$s and for some, make more $$$$s.

Avacta's Chief Technology Officer, Dr Matt Johnson, will be presenting at the Annual Biomarkers & Precision Medicine Congress in San Diego on Tuesday 10th October at 11:30am.

[lantanatony] 05/10/2017 09:38

A collaboration with FIT Biotech?
So What,where are the deals with Big Phama and the like!

[danatkins] 04/10/2017 17:11

Drewster yes I was thinking on these lines also. Any developments re groundbreaking therapeutics would multiple the share price and very quickly. Also another reason why Avacta could be bought. Just my opinion. Personally of any success I'd like to see expansion of the co.

[the drewster] 04/10/2017 16:56

Bonzo, I disagree. The potential impact of PD-L1 showing promise in humans would, imo, multi-bag the share well before commercial traction, it's just too big not to.

[danatkins] 04/10/2017 15:52

Yes getting to breakeven must be first goal. I feel the company will be bought out if the tech is as great as we are lead to believe

[bonzo] 04/10/2017 14:56

People do seem to have unrealistic expectations here. Avacta have a great scientific discovery with many applications, which will take years to come to fruition. They are doing R&D on their own account as well as pitching for services from big pharma and research groups to use their technology. However they are not, in the short term, going to sign a "big deal" which will bring in tens of millions, or even millions. Even the product which may go in to trials in 2019 is going to take time to exploit. The most important thing is for them to stay in business. They are not a biotech play per se, but have the characteristics somewhere between a biotech and a service provider. Even selling servies into big pharma is a real trial. I know because its my day job.

[the drewster] 04/10/2017 14:07

poacher ... therein lies the dilemma (trust) ... the market, I would say, does NOT currently, but as you're no doubt aware, history is soon forgotten on delivery of good news.

If you don't "believe" then this really shouldn't be on your radar, except as a possible short.

[poacher45] 04/10/2017 14:03

In about 2010 the director forecast profits in two years time. He has not made a profits forecast since then but has dropped products and all the time expenses just go up and up. How can you trust him?

[the drewster] 04/10/2017 13:08

In my head, they are odds-against actually making it, but the returns if they do are significantly greater than those odds.

To put into context, if a horse's chance of winning a race was 1 in 10, but you could back the horse at odds of 100 to 1, then statistically, you should back the horse every time.

Fill in your own numbers and your decision should be clear enough.

[mrangry2] 04/10/2017 12:50

Well said Drewster. That's why most of the investors have chosen Avacta I'd have thought. It's a small research company and we just have to be patient to see which way it goes.