Auhua Clean Share Discussion Threads

[hiq] 21/9/2010 16:06

I already explained why I think ACE is worth 0.4p-0.5p, don't expect me to repeat it in every post, I do not want to bore my readers.

[baner] 20/9/2010 21:39

#hiq

thanks for your highly sophisticated analysis! your intelligence is really obvious and impressive!

lol!

[hiq] 20/9/2010 20:44

Not much downside lol

About another 2.5p should do it

[baner] 17/9/2010 11:16

# nicky name

interesting thoughts and i agree with you: if you look at the pro forma balance sheet post conversion this company will look finanicially OK again! the new shareholders - the holders of the convertibles - have common interest with existing owners as soon as the conversion terms have been agreed. their only interest will then be to maximize the exit value to the benefit of ALL shareholders. the big Q is: what % will go to the existing shareholders. there is a limit to how much they are willing to surrender - after all they are assumed to vote in favour of the change of the conversion terms - so an interesting "terror balance" here! my guess is existing shareholders will retain 20%-ish. that would give 350m shares in total = £15m-ish value at 4p. probably FAR too cheap.

there is still hope here! and not much downside.

[nicky name] 16/9/2010 13:07

These CHO's are cash hungry beasts, that is why the insureres can use their financial might to delay payment and reign them in every few years.

Private equity took control of Drive Assist, and my guess is that the new major shareholders will keep the senior management with the experience it needs to run the business until either a trade sale (my guess is that it will sell when ready to the private equity owners of the AA) or by public offering of shares.

I am disappointed though that I cannot know the terms of dilution - the debt for equity conversion terms, until after delisting. Seems like a catch 22 situation.

[thenorth] 14/9/2010 10:26

yep i agree with that too pan... there will no doubt be some that just cant quite sleep well at night, the ones that got ACE into their position in the first place.... the non execs will have to step down and i would think that MS will have their own people on the board... just how far the knife will travel we will have to wait and see, although the AF case will continue and no doubt MS will see that as the first step of recovering the 63m they have just written off....

[pan1234] 14/9/2010 10:07

I agree with TheNorth there is a long way to go. But what if MS take hold of the business themselves, is that out of the question? and then will the CEO walk? I bet there are a few people worried at the top of ACE. I guess time will tell.

[thenorth] 13/9/2010 17:29

Of course they are hiq... MS have only given them enough cash till 2013... go figure now old boy... oh and perhaps a little research before you post drivel... i rest my case!

Yes the shares maybe worthless and if thats what you are pointing to may i suggest there is a huge difference between bust and de-listing.... so i would suggest it is you thats blind or maybe you cant read?

TN

[hiq] 12/9/2010 20:44

ACE is as good as bust and you are still blindly pursuing that old course lol

[thenorth] 12/9/2010 20:43

Who was right???? lol your not as the case continues... time to crawl back under that stone...

TN

[hiq] 12/9/2010 19:32

Perhaps I will get an apology from the likes of TheNorth.

You were very disparaging when I criticised the business model.

And said ACE will get f-all from any legal suits.

Who was right?

[pan1234] 09/9/2010 14:11

TheNorth

I don't think you are a fool, but what's my opinion compared to that of all your friend's & family?

Lets stay friend's and not get to personal m8ty, after all i am dyslexic!!!!

Have a good day and i hope you make your money back soon.

Smile :)

Pan

[hiq] 08/9/2010 18:48

My charts say 0.5p

[thenorth] 08/9/2010 11:02

Jonah... thats a good question... answers on a postcard?

[luckyjonah] 08/9/2010 08:30

I assume with the delisting the only sensible option is to sell shares in the open market now?

[thenorth] 07/9/2010 19:18

Get over it Pan....lol

(EDIT) if ACE employed people for 5 whole years...with such bad spelling capabilities then is it any wonder it ended up going the way it has....

[masurenguy] 05/9/2010 16:50

I held this share very briefly some two and a half years ago. Having watched it fall from its 2006 highs I took the view that they had largely addressed their conflicting issues with the insurance companies in late 2007 and the £50m Convertible Note that was issued at the end of the year, underwrittem by MS, seemed to confirm this. Consequently I bought some stock at the begining of January 2008 but, having undertaken some further research and subsequently discussed them with someone I knew in the trade, I got cold feet and sold out at 77.5p for a modest profit in early Feb.

With hindsight that proved to be a good decision (pity I didn't apply that to another stock I owned at that time) but I must say that this outcome doesn't come as a big surprise. There's are a couple of very interesting posts on TMF from people who've had a bad personal experiences dealing with ACE (one back in 2008 although I didn't see his original post at the time as it was after I sold) and reading them today brought me back to checkout the latest developments.





Looking back there was also a very interesting exchange on this thread about cash at that time.

jascat - 22 Jan'08 - 4718: ACE could do worse than use some of their cash to buy up some stock at these prices.

Masurenguy - 22 Jan'08 - 4719: That would be lunacy given their current level of debt. Cash conservation is key in the current climate !

alexacj - 22 Jan'08 - 4720: Agreed Mas!! They need to conserve their cash to run the business!!

jascat - 22 Jan'08 - 4722: Not really madness. Cash flow is reputed to be now in positive territory. If a buyback at these low prices was undertaken, when the price recovered as expected to the note price, instead of having to issue further stock, they would be able to pay the issue off at less than half the expected cost. They would in effect have made money.

paulypilot - 22 Jan'08 - 4723: Masurenguy is quite wrong to suggest that cash conservation is the key. At this kind of crazy under-valuation, the best thing the company could do right now is to aggressively buyback shares in the open market.

paulypilot - 22 Jan'08 - 4724: Jascat - that is an absolutely brilliant idea - i.e. ACE buys back stock in the market at sub-60p, holds it in Treasury & then uses that cheap stock to fufil the loan notes conversions in 5-years time. As you say, they would actually make money by doing that !

alexacj - 22 Jan'08 - 4725: I think they are absolutely right NOT to buy back shares......what happens if business is growing as you suggest.....they will grow their recievables.....if that business is with dealers or manufacturers then they will have to purchase vehicles......then bang!....another challenge from the insurers and they withold payment......to a company with a share price where it is and just after HAVING to raise £50 million to stay afloat...that would be catastrophic !

Obviously the wisdom of hindsight is a wonderful thing but I guess that the above interchange just underlines the point that sometimes it might be better to remain a little bit more open minded rather than being too dogmatic over a specific issue ! Commiserations to all remaining shareholders.

[sundaymonday] 03/9/2010 18:12

Not worth 0.5p IMHO