Asset Management Investment Share Discussion Threads

[glynnef] 13/4/2006 15:33

Doug,
I have edited my post to clarify I was talking about the share price I think what has happened today so far is what we both expected. Discount to NAV has been much bigger before - 40%ish. I am still bullish for the reasons in my insomniac post this morning, but only if you are prepared to wait until, say, the 2006 results announcement.

GF.

[1729dougdon] 13/4/2006 15:22

1729dougdon
upward movement in what? discount or share price ,as I said discount would be around 21%, hardly anything on the share price doug.

[glynnef] 13/4/2006 14:57

NAV at 99.43 is a bit lower than I thought, but I have probably double counted the 2.97p increase they have reported daily this week. Should have read Monday's COL announcement more carefully, especially the words "in aggregate".

At 24% discount to NAV I am expecting only upward movement in the share price from here unless there are many sellers taking profits. The opportunity to vote on the FX Concepts deal should be with us soon.

regards,
GF.

[oniabsta] 13/4/2006 14:42

well, thats a disc to NAV of 24.06%

[tacobumpy] 13/4/2006 13:27

Hmmm, NAV late being released today... do we read anything into this?

[jimbo3352] 13/4/2006 13:05

I see from the financial info published by CLIG that the pre-listing dividend went up to almost 2.5 times that of the previous year which can only help AMIC's cash flow. CLIG's profit after tax has risen from £0.3m in 2004 to £1.3m last year and is in line to increase to £2.5m in the year to 31.5.06. Apparently, their business model is such that additional funds can be managed with little in the way of additional costs. Should be interesting to see how things go but they do have a long way before catching up on Charlemagne's levels of profitability which are much higher than be accounted for by having more funds under management.

[glynnef] 13/4/2006 03:41

dougdon,

I am not expecting a huge leap in the share price today as much of the City of London action is priced in already. I am thinking 9 - 12 months forward. Am just making the point, as others have done, that as a portfolio consisting of 92% unlisted investments as at Sept05 is liquidated or becomes listed, some of the risk associated with a largely unlisted portfolio disappears. £2M repayment due from Jovian Asset Management in July and the FX Concepts proposals will all help. If the NAV is perceived as solid and there is a good yield, an share price of 25+% discount to NAV will seem cheap.

regards, GF.

[1729dougdon] 12/4/2006 17:51

1729dougdon,
GF. the discount to NAV at the moment is about 8% if the NAV tomorrow is 104 and the discount remains the same,we should see a quantum leap in the share price I will believe it when I see it. even if the discount doubles their would be a huge leap in the share price my forecast is a big widening of the discount to 20%. again I ask why is the spread between bid&offer so big.


doug. ps clig closed at 195 bid ,so hope your figures prove correct.

[glynnef] 12/4/2006 16:24

By my calculations, the NAV statement tomorrow should be up to around 103/4p if City of London is valued at 195p bid price. Another benefit is the reduction in the percentage of the portfolio in unlisted securities, which should encourage the discount to NAV to narrow.

GF.

[1729dougdon] 12/4/2006 15:45

1729 dougdon
can any one explain why there is such a big spread on the amn shares.

[oniabsta] 12/4/2006 09:44

Cheers Glynnef

[glynnef] 12/4/2006 09:40

Oniabsta,
CLIG. Trading at 195/200.
150,ooo volume reported on LSE site.

G.

[oniabsta] 12/4/2006 09:18

does anyone know whether the city of london was floated this morning ?
if so whats the epic ? can't find it on advfn
tia

[tiltonboy] 09/4/2006 17:20

doug,

I think there is a little bit more left in AMN, and am not tempted this side of 80p.

I would like to see the company continue until October 2009, when the last of $4m comes in. In that time I would like to see the company stay in liquidation mode, i.e no further investments, a repayment of debt, and pushing for the disposal of the remaining shareholdings. Some of these may take some time, but I believe three years should be sufficient.

So how do we value the company? We know that income has been robust this year, as can be seen from the City of London prospectus, as well as the announcement concerning the revenue override from FX Concepts. This should allow for a decent dividend increase this year to around 5p. With the zero's being repaid in October, gearing falls dramatically, which lessens the risk profile.

Looking further ahead, as debt gets repaid, interest payments will fall, allowing a gradual further increase in dividends. I would hope for 6p the following year.

Much depends on IFDC for further growth in NAV, though there is still upside(and possible downside), from C of L.

At 74p the shares stand on a 26% discount to NAV, on a 6% yield, rising to 7%.

This still looks attractive, though not the outstanding bargain they were.

If you starting wishing the Baggies to stay up at the expense of my beloved Blues, I might just have to stop giving advice to you...lol...

Wiganer,

It's difficult to spot these situations, and if you look at the JDT thread over the past 3 1/2 years, there have been a number of similar stocks that have made a number of people a lot of money. I refuse to go on to other threads and mention stocks, so you just have to be lucky when you spot something.

tiltonboy

[wiganer] 09/4/2006 14:53

Well done on the point yesterday tiltonboy- you deserved it. Am looking at AMN for a punt, but fear i might have left it a bit late to get on the train- wish it could have crossed my radar when it was in the 40s/50s...

[1729dougdon] 09/4/2006 13:06

Hi tiltonboy,

Thanks for your response, Good to see somebody is keeping the economy ticking over, albeit with illgotten gains

with regards to Amn, do you think they have peaked? I would like to spend some of my illgotten gains but don't want to jump ship to soon, but in view of your comments about some of the assetts not being readily saleable, it is difficut to see much more mileage in the SP, I will await the markets response ,to the CoL debut on Wednesday, before I decide what to do,I don't want to hold for the long term, to old for thatI am holding a substantial number of the babies, and may send them on their way,I have other fish to fry,but many thanks for your input, it is very much appreciated.
1729Dougdon.
Ps I am hoping Baggies survive,even at the expense of Brum.

[tiltonboy] 08/4/2006 19:33

doug,

You will have a chance to vote on the continuation of the company, and if enough are of a similar mind, the resolution may not get carried.

A number of the investments are not readily saleable, and by calling for an early wind-up, there could be no guarantee of achieving book values. In addition, the terms of the FX Concepts deal means that the last of the monies does not come in for another 3 1/2 years.

I believe it is in the best interests of shareholders to vote for the continuation of the company. However, I believe shareholders should lobby to keep the company in wind-up mode, i.e no further investments, and the use of the proceeds of sales to be returned to shareholders.

If somebody offered me 90p now, I would probably take it, however a growing dividend, and a substantial discount to NAV means that I am happy to hold in the medium term.

As I have said previously, there may be hidden value in IFDC, which I'm sure AMN will try and unlock.

For the time being asset management companies per se are in vogue, so enjoy the ride.

Sorry for the delay in coming back to you, I've been out and spoilt the wife with a new outfit with my ill gotten gains of the last couple of weeks, which enabled me to get down the pub and see the Blues nick a point in their relegation battle.

tiltonboy

[1729dougdon] 08/4/2006 13:20

As a shareholder I would be interested to know how the system works for those seeking to realise the Assett value,
In the event,that shareholders vote to extend the life of the company how would this impact on shareholders who wish to bail out with the full Assett value,could someone clarify this. If on the other hand, the vote is to wind up the Company,what are the chances of getting the full Assett value, maybe this a question best answered by ,tiltonboy

1729dougdon.

[ntv] 08/4/2006 09:02

nice tick up this week here as well

[tiltonboy] 07/4/2006 11:20

jimbo,

I understand they are substantially profitable... and growing...

tiltonboy

[jimbo3352] 07/4/2006 11:06

One man's rollercoaster is another's buying opportunity. Re IFDC, I looked up the 2004 accounts of the UK subsidiary which show net assets of £600k(consisting of cash) and a pbt of £200k. The parent company is based in Luxembourg and I haven't managed to obtain their accounts. At the end of the day, the accounts don't seem to have much bearing on valuations, witness City of London whose 2005 accounts showed net assets of just £2.3m. I suppose it's down to the fee earning capacity of funds under management.

[tiltonboy] 07/4/2006 09:57

It's been a bit of a rollercoaster, and whilst the fall from 58p to 42p hurt both finacially and to my ego, my faith has been justified...so far!!!

Next step is to unlock some hidden value in IFDC.

tiltonboy

[sleepy] 07/4/2006 09:51

Well done, Tilton!

[oniabsta] 07/4/2006 09:46

tiltonboy,

you look spot on with a nav of 100p

In connection with the flotation, AMIC has agreed, subject to the ordinary
shares in CoL being admitted to trading on AIM, to sell 102,554 ordinary shares
in CoL at a cash price of #45 per share, equivalent to 2,563,850 shares at #1.80
respectively following CoL's capital reorganisation. The first day of dealings
in CoL shares is expected to be 12 April, 2006.

Prior to the sale AMIC holds in aggregate 203,805 ordinary shares in CoL, valued
as at the most recently published Net Asset Value at #26.56 per share,
equivalent to 5,095,125 shares at #1.06 respectively. The flotation price would
in aggregate result in an increase in AMIC's net assets of some #3.76m or 17.41
pence per AMIC ordinary share.

[tiltonboy] 06/4/2006 22:40

Glynne,

I think the warrants have converted to give AMN a 21% stake in City of London.

I'm disappointed with the valuation on City of London, although it is in line with my estimates of fair value.

I'm still a firm holder of the stock, and feel it should trade at around 80p in the short term.

tiltonboy