||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|callumross: Excellent risk/reward purchase at these levels. Trading below the 4.1p net cash. No debt. Plus the asset of the £1m loan earning 10% per annum owed by the old business worth another 1p per share. Plus of course they retain 25% of Armour Home which may or may not be worth a lot in the future but is worth over £1m currently based on the transaction when Armour Home was disposed. Away from the turbulence of the markets while fully in cash and likely to mean the valuations of any businesses acquired will be cheaper and better value. Only reason share price has languished is because someone is looking to get out. Perhaps the director Bodger who recently left (he held a quarter of a million shares) or perhaps an institution who is not allowed to be holding shares in a cash shell or non operating business. Hence the 150k sale at 3.5p delayed by a few hours. As well as the shares traded on LSE, though, another 175k has been bought already today through ISDX at 3.75p so may not take long to clear this overhang at this rate.|
|chrisdgb: Although after the frustrating share price reaction, that feels along way away.....post results, some Director share purchases would help confidence...|
|graham1ty: AGM summary
Only two attendees. With over 2500 shareholders, most of whom have lost most of their money, a few more might have made the effort........
c45 minute open frank discussion with Board keen to engage, even with some quite blunt questions. No attempt to cut the meeting short as so often happens.
Q: yr own brokers note says "the profit recovery is now being generated by internal actions". You have cut almost a third of the workforce. Is there anything else to cut if revenue does not pick up ? Answer ( my précis): yes, we could always cut more, but not really without damaging the business. There is only so far you can go. We believe we are now the right size, in terms of overhead
Q: the statement says you have a 2% increase in gross margins. Does that give you a bit of a cushion if there is no pick up ? A: We have already cut £5.7m from overheads. The increased margin does give some comfort. Note also that there are another £1m of cost savings to come through this year
Q: you spend £1-1.5m per annum on R&D. Is that all necessary ? A: we have to, to keep in front, to keep leaders in all our fields. R&D is investment in future sales and in the future of AMR. It is expensive, but money well spent we believe
Q: yr brokers have no forecast decrease in net debt for two years. All free cash ( c £1-2m pa) is soaked up by R&D or interest cost ? A: yes, there is a balance. We have to invest in the future of the business. We have to balance the needs of the various parts of the Company. We believe we are getting that right and are comfortable with the debt position
Q; will the Chairman's loan ( due July) be rolled over ? Yes ( I do not think that is price sensitive, in my defence it was stated openly in a public meeting)
Q: talk about the balance between Home/Automotive ? A: we would probably not have predicted this balance 5 years ago. Automotive has built an incredibly strong position with commercial, particularly agricultural vehicles. The Home division has been far weaker than we would ever have feared. It is however, as announced, now back in profit. Retail as we all now has been far worse than anyone could have predicted
Q: the CEO is paid £190,000, but after 15 years has only £60,000 worth of shares. Mr Chairman, is that the right balance of exposure to the Company ? A: when the share price was 80p he had a rather larger interest........ Q: why are you not buying ( the Chairman cannot as he has 29.9%) ?: first there is no stock available. Second, do not have the money to do so. ( GTY comment, that is a bit lame. There has been stock around. Second......paid £190,000 and got no free cash !!!)
Q: ( from other shareholder) with yr Scandanavian business, would you consider a dual listing ? A: that business is not enormous and we are not a household name. It would be expensive. Q: can you buy out some of the 2500 shareholders, and save costs on distribution of the AR ? A:wish we could, but very difficult to get behind nominees and actually get to the underlying shareholders, particularly in CREST. We may only distribute the AR electronically ( except for those who actively demand paper copy). Is the website up to date ? Not as much as we would like.
That is all I am going to put down. I felt the chance of this going bust has diminished. They may or may not be right about having passed the lowest point, however, through harsh cost cutting, they have significantly reduced the risks. Even with no increase in revenue, I felt they will get through.
There was not a focus on the debt and no ( stated) great concern about bringing net debt down immediately ( driven by the Company or the lenders). Bob Morton has stood behind them this far and gives the impression he will continue to do so. He gave an air of cautious optimism. All Directors do. However, in AMRs case, I left the meeting feeling they were possibly justified in feeling a little more optimistic.
PS. I welcome any correction to the notes above from the Board or NOMAD. I hope they reflect accurately the discussion and I will correct immediately if it is felt I have misrepresented the views of the Board|
|loverat: After some years of mixed fortunes and a declining share price, Armour Group has issued a statement indicating that a recovery is underway in both its Home and Automotive businesses. Costs seem to be under control and a return to profitability on the cards.
A well known company which produces high end entertainment, audio and communications products.
The company is launching new products and receving significant orders for its impressive range.
This thread is for discussion of this company which has been under the radar for a number of years. With improving sentiment and indications of an improvement in trading, investors and traders may see this as a recovery play for 2013 and possibly beyond.
|envirovision: Have to say i am amazed the share price is holding up at this level, do the market makers think they really have a buyer somewhere for this near 8 pence a share???? Weird!
How strange I wonder if we are going to see the management try to make a low ball takeover i.e. pitched at 7p or something.
Either they have a plan and are trying to make it look as though they are running it into the ground for a low offer to take it private or they are highly inept and really just cant help it.
Which is it?|
|dnfa1975: Valuation: Qualities not recognised
Assessing a fair value for Armour Group is made difficult by the current trading
environment. Management has demonstrated an ability to remain profitable when
others in the sector have disappeared. There is an intrinsic value in the group's
brands which is recognised in the 44p asset value but not in the share price.
Nigel Harrison 020 3077 5723
Roger Johnston 020 3077 5722
YES 44p bring it on!!|
Under current circumstances I would expect a company like AMR to trade on a historic P/E of 7. We've already seen 1.15p for H1 - so what do we expect for H2.
The retail recovery in demand reported in HI has continued in other consumer based stocks, albeit at a slightly decellerating level - look particularly at DSG where "brown goods" demand is up 3% in the last quarter. A 3%+ rise in underlying demand will appear as a 5-6% increase in AMR revenues as increasing exports & new product ranges are factored in. This increase in sales revenues will result in a 15-20%+ rise in AMR eps as costs are held down - on that basis we're looking at 1.35p for H2 & 2.5p for this full year.
I expect that the cost of sorting the rumoured "quality problems" will not have a significant impact on ptp & won't impact my 2.5p eps forecast. AMR have not issued a "profits warning", so the damage can't have been that great - if there's any damage at all.
If AMR have solved the supply chain problems (and there's no reason to believe that they haven't) then good cash flow should have a positive impact on the P/E. With AMR's market position & growth prospects we ought to be looking at a forward P/E of 8-10 as the company rehabituates itself - but we're going to take a year to start getting there.
So - the finals in late November could deliver us a 2.5p eps on an historic P/E of 7 - indicating a 17-18p share price. The Q3 IMS in September 2011 should point to an FY2011 eps of 3.2p on a forward P/E of 8+ - indicating a Sept 2011 shareprice of 24-28p. That's a 100%+ possibility in 12 months, that's why I'm in.
The IMS in the next few days could start this re-rating of AMR - "you pays your money & you takes your chance".|
I'm betting that they have solved that supply chain problem & also that the rumoured "quality problem" has been sorted.
We should get the pre-close IMS on (or around) 10th September & I'm expecting these 2 issues to be briefly addressed in a positive light. If the demand recovery in the first half has also been carried through to end August then we could be looking at an EPS of 2.2p to 2.5p on £62m of revs with the Finals in late November. With a "re-rated" (but still v low) P/E of 6-7 we could be looking at a 14-16p share price by end 2010.
This makes AMR a top-up for me - probably after the IMS rather than before.|
|maltatrader: What worries me is that even though the share price is good value and the statement was upbeat for 2010, we have not seen the directors buying over the last year. (unless I missed the RNS!)|
|callumross: From todays Daily Mail
"Despite slightly better-than-expected annual profits and an upbeat accompanying statement, electrical and automotive retailing group Armour lost 1.75p to 14p.
Broker Edison said the share price recognises neither the strength of the underlying business nor the value of its brands."|
Armour Group share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange