Arla Foods Uk Share Discussion Threads

[deniscaff] 20/10/2006 14:07

Thanks for the reminder Que , Not quite a full pint yet but getting there !

[quepassa] 20/10/2006 13:42

Glass full(-ish) now I hope.

[deniscaff] 20/10/2006 13:21

Agreed Gerry it's just a case of how much? and how long before the formal bid? I've had quite a bit ( for me ) tied up waiting for this but for once I think our patience is about to pay off.

Have a good weekend, I will !!!

[gerry321] 20/10/2006 10:51

Que/Den
There would not have been an announcement if there had not been feelers put out beforehand...........so the takeover is a racing cert
I suspect most of the biggish buying in the sub 50p days was down to nominees buying for resale to amba at a guaranteed share price .......but not a share price as great as the takeover share price ......if this theory is correct then there will be a shortage of stock in the immediate term forcing up the share price ahead of the formal bid

[quepassa] 20/10/2006 09:54

If memory serves correctly, the old Express Dairies released the news one or two months prior to formal announcement of y/e results that they were in talks about Arla amba taking a 51% majority share-holding. When the actual day of their Annual Results announcement came around , Express also announced that they had satisfactorily concluded talks with Arla which would lead to a recommended offer to share-holders.

It would surprise me if they didn't follow exactly the same route this time.

For the record, Arla Foods UK release their annual results on 23rd. November 2006. Their next AGM is scheduled for end-January 2007

I think it would be difficult for management to let Arla Foods go on the cheap because of the relative strength and bargaining position of two of the current shareholders which collectively hold some 21% of the free floating shares:-

(Arla Foods UK Holding Ltd 51.00% )

Invesco Perpetual 15.99%
Milk Partnership Ltd 5.29% .

I also recall that Express Dairies paid significant special dividends ( 9.6p per share ?)when they recommended the Arla amba deal.

My guess is that Arla amba and Arla UK will agree on a price in the region of 70p per share plus annual dividend of say 1p plus special dividend of some 10p, meaning cash to shareholders in the region of 80p.

The current market cap of Arla Foods is some £380m after this morning's rise but Arla amba already own 51% which means that they will need to find circa £188m which is certainly not difficult for Arla amba to achieve.

I personally have a very high degree of confidence that the take-over will go ahead. Arla amba have publicly stated in the past that the UK is a key strategic market for them and that they will make acquisitions where it fits their strategy.

[quepassa] 20/10/2006 09:21

For TT. kindly refer to posting 271. thanks for your tea-leaves anyway.

[deniscaff] 20/10/2006 09:14

Interesting timing , they were always going to bid after arla disposed of the "non fit sectors" and converted the liability of the doorstep business into cash, but why didn't they begin talks two months ago when the share price was in the mid forties ? they know how the company is performing as they have full representation on the board, I suspect the results to be announced on the 23rd of Nov must be pretty good but the prospects going forward are even better
, lets hope the major holders don't let them get "it on the cheap"

[topsy turvy] 20/10/2006 09:10

lol. I hoped reading my tealeaves might work! Even got it right on the oil front too.

[quepassa] 20/10/2006 08:41

At long last.

[adie2001] 20/10/2006 07:22

funny you should say that TT.................

Regards

Adie2001

[topsy turvy] 19/10/2006 18:26

I suspect we won't see fuel prices fall any further. Quite apart from seasonal factors and the political situation, I can't see OPEC wanting them to drop below current levels. We need something more substantial to drive the share price of ARU much further upwards from here, such as an Arla Amba bid.

[quepassa] 18/10/2006 08:26

In less than two months ( end August to mid-October ) , we have seen a sharp 32% rise in the share price of Arla Foods from 43p bid to 57p bid.

Continuing heavy turn-over in shares.

Fuel prices falling further.

Positive for Arla.

[quepassa] 04/10/2006 07:38

Thanks.

Sp has been moving forward steadily with unusually high share t/o for last few days.

[gerry321] 03/10/2006 21:14

Good post Que
One wonders whether the recent dip below 50p has enabled Amba nominees to mop up a sizeable holding of the free market shares......to average against the 70p bid range we all expect..

[quepassa] 30/9/2006 11:29

We have now seen a 25% recovery in share price from from the 43p low in August to the current 54p. The story makes positive reading and the following factors are all combining to bring a much improved trading situation in the current climate for Arla UK.

1)Falling transportation costs due to lower fuelprices ,
2)Upbeat trading statement with strong growth in sales,
3)Increasing market share in butter ( Lurpak, Anchor and Cravendale )
4)Growth in value-added milk products including 25% growth in organic milk sales
5)Completion of disposal of door-step milk delivery business
6)Statement that trading performance in second half will be much stronger than first half
7)Benefits of recent investment program now feeding through to company profits
8)Competitors reporting strong trading results


and there is still the distinct possibility in my opinion the that majority 51% owner -Arla amba - could make a move for Arla Foods UK within a short time-frame.

[gerry321] 27/9/2006 11:44

Some big trades today.......are funds buying Arla again .........?

[quepassa] 20/9/2006 22:09

sharp 5% share price rise to-day is indeed suspicious.........so let's hope so.

[gerry321] 20/9/2006 18:30

Good news coming up ??

[gerry321] 19/9/2006 22:32

ARU board should have been positioning their big shareholders and the market ahead of their latest trading update.......the way the share price has been moving recently rather suggests little news has been leaked..........is this good news or bad ?

[deniscaff] 13/9/2006 09:00

Thanks Que ,I now realise that my glass half full and not half empty !!!!

[quepassa] 12/9/2006 17:26

On a positive note, it is nonetheless heading in your direction..........

[deniscaff] 12/9/2006 15:05

Which would be nice if my weighted average was 42p, unfortunatly dispite aquiring some as low as 14.5p my average is considerably higher than 42p !!!

[quepassa] 12/9/2006 14:40

At today's price of 49p, we are now approaching a rapid and dramatic 17.5% rebound in Arla's share price in the short three weeks since Arla hit its August 22nd low of 42p.

[quepassa] 06/9/2006 18:26

Current shareholdings of more than 3% in Arla Foods UK , as per their web-site:-

Arla Food UK holdings 51%
Invesco Perpetual 16.14%
Milk Partnership 5.29%
Barclays Global 3.12%


I don't recall Barclays having a 3% + holding last time I checked. Presumably Barclays Global are nominees for other investors.