Arla Foods Uk Share Discussion Threads

[gerry321] 06/9/2006 16:58

Que
.however ...good mgt should always be able to find money for a real bargain...hence i hope submerged amba nominees represent the bulk of the biggish buys the past couple of months.........if so then the free market ouhght to be shrinking by the day leading to small MMS and increased volatilty on days when the volume is modest but not small.........

[quepassa] 06/9/2006 13:13

Yes I agree with this. - Arla amba's strategy for European growth, increased market penetration and expansion by organic growth AND acquisition in key markets has not changed.
The Middle East affair would have rightly diverted management's attention for several months. With matters in their ME markets settling down, I expect management to be re-focusing with renewed vigour on their stated European core strategy including Arla Foods UK.

[gerry321] 06/9/2006 12:01

I see Forbes.com are reporting amba back into 5000 middle east supermarkets with another 5000 to go....boycott reckoned to have cost the Danish milk suppliers 400m kr ....perhaps this has cost amba sufficient cash to have been the reason for delay to the arla bid .........

[deniscaff] 05/9/2006 11:41

Gerry

Can't recall the detail of how they reported and am to busy to look at the moment.

Cheers

[gerry321] 04/9/2006 19:26

Den

Didnt arla report that their price increase to the supermarkets was later than budgetted but that they anticipated a balancing out in the second half of the year ?..if so maybe the share price will recover some of the ground lost to others in the sector....hope so

[gerry321] 04/9/2006 19:22

219700 arla shares traded today on the plusmarketsgroup exchange

[quepassa] 04/9/2006 16:09

Thank you both for useful feed-back.

[deniscaff] 04/9/2006 15:59

They are back to where they were in early June, over the same period Dairy Crest and Wiseman have risen by 25% and 30 % respectivly and are trading at record highs , I would be delighted if Arla followed the industry trend but recognise they have a long way to go ,had they performed as the other two who have the same pressures as Arla regarding milk pricing and oil related cost increases they would be back in the high sixties and beyond by now.

[hvs] 04/9/2006 15:37

Think it was way oversold and now making a come back.

[quepassa] 04/9/2006 15:36

5% price rise to-day. Seemingly retail buying. Has anyone following this stock caught wind of any developments or broker recommendations please?

[quepassa] 01/9/2006 09:14

Thanks. Positive start to the trading day to-day. Four consecutive days of gains.

[hvs] 01/9/2006 08:19

Que,

I agree.

[quepassa] 31/8/2006 16:28

Great strength and support over last three days. Appears that the price bottomed in the low 40's and now moving upwards steeply and rapidly.

[hvs] 25/8/2006 18:14

Spec as for money go raid your piggy bank.

As for Amba , the only reason I am buying is to secure your milk supply. Now
be a good boy and give the bottle your mum has made a good suck before it goes
cold.

[spectrum7] 25/8/2006 17:34

hvs always likes to hold long term.......he never makes any money though.......poor hvs....lol

[hvs] 25/8/2006 17:30

Thank you for the good wishes deniscaff.

I am a long term patient holder, thought it was too good an oppotunity to miss.

The 70p you mention will do me fine, but would not be surprised if a bid comes in at 60p.

[deniscaff] 25/8/2006 17:15

No problem gerry

I still believe Amba will want to buy the other 49% for all the reasons we have posted in the past , they are a farmers co-op and will not be comfortable with the discipline of a plc, they have it well lined up now and ripe for the taking, they have got rid of the sector and depot structure that didn't fit their dairy business model,they have £33 mil to reduce debt, they have still got the valuble site of the Ruislip dairy which will leave the business debt free when sold and they have manipulated the share price down to 45p from 70p. watch this space !!

hvs

Glad you are still buying and I hope you are right , have you got an exit price in mind ?

[hvs] 25/8/2006 14:01

I,m buying and have been all week.

[gerry321] 25/8/2006 12:44

Den
Thanks for info
Surely the bottom line for Arla if the milk business becomes unprofitable is to do exactly as you said......
.keep the transfer price high
and..use a low milk price as a lost leader in selling butter etc to the UK Supermarkets....
...If this was the case amba might never have to buy Arla uk since with 51% of the shares they could hold out indefinitely against any shareholder revolt ??

[deniscaff] 25/8/2006 09:55

hvs

What kind of a question is that !! If you want to identify me just ask I wouldn't use my name if I wanted to be anonymous.

[hvs] 24/8/2006 18:23

deniscaff,

Didnt you get a pay off when you left Arla ?

[deniscaff] 24/8/2006 17:54

hvs
The branded butter,cheese and other value added products are manufactured and marketed outside the u.k. by Arla Amba and are ONLY distributed in the U.K. by Arla Foods U.K., I presume the margin made by Arla Foods U.K will be determinded by the transfer price set by Arla Amba which of course can be manipulated to suit, ie Low transfer price = proft for the u.k plc and higher share price , High transfer price = more profit for the european co-op which is Arla Amba and less profit for the u.k plc and a lower share price, ask yourself what suits Arla Amba at the present time High share price or
Low share price !!

gerry

Most of the milk that goes into processing is worth less than the milk that finishes on the shelf as fresh liquid milk as it goes into world wide commodities such as milk powder,chocholate crumb, unbranded bulk cheese and bulk butter and into food manufacturers who buy high volumes at low prices and use it as ingredients to make desserts,soups,and confectionery ect.

It is only worth more when it is used in the dairy companies own added value products such as branded cheese,butter,yogurts,cottage cheese,flavoured milks ect ect.

None of the milk bought by Arla Foods u.k. goes into manufacture it is 100% for liquid milk.

Cheers

[hvs] 24/8/2006 10:55

Amba is a big player in Mozaerlla cheese and many other cheeses.

Also, Anchor, Lurpak,etc are world known brands which will be around a lot
longer than many milk only companies.

Some Arla brands are in the top 100 Brands in this country.

[gerry321] 24/8/2006 10:49

Does anybody know what proportion of milk bought by aru goes to processed foods versus milk direct to supermarkets ?
........presumably processed foods have a much higher margin than milk ?

[deniscaff] 24/8/2006 10:15

hvs

I admire your optimism but can you elaberate on "their emphasis on processed products to add value " and how that will be reflected in the share price ?