Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 10/5/2024 14:29

The longer they state, the less they'll be seen as forced sellers within a timeframe - agree it'll hopefully be much sooner, albeit there's usually a few that are hard to shift in any winding-up.

@markth - what co was that?

@SnArk - very boorish, give it a rest.

[skyship] 10/5/2024 12:14

Saw that Jason estimated 18-36 months for the wind-down; but suspect that was just to throw a bone at Chairman clifton-Browmn - who should surely have resigned by now.

I'm pretty confident that Jason will complete within 2yrs - so with earlier redemptions, the average GRY may be just 18months. That would certainly deliver a GRY of 20%+ pa...

[markth] 10/5/2024 11:02

Re: wind down. I got shafted in another one last year. They steadily reduced the NAV through special dividends, but the discount persisted. Then they declared the pot was too small to warrant a listing so they delisted with 'x' p on offer for the shares at a NAV of '2x' p the day before. Someone legged it with a few million worth of NAV.

[pavey ark] 10/5/2024 10:12

I would focus on quality assets being API's thing and the reduction in vacancies , the revisionary potential and recent sales would make the uncovered portion rather trivial in the wider scheme of things.....then again some like to hop aboard there favourite hobby horse...avoids thinking things out.

Interesting that Jason Baggaly's long term purchaser of the Scottish moorland has increased in value and looking like going for a good price......what was he thinking?...he should have listened to the bb experts ....the people who really know.

nickrl, I don't really expect a reduction and there is £32m of sales that can be set against the RCF and actually increase the overall yield (very slightly).

I expect the RCF to be paid of and perhaps the facility reduced to £10m or so (just to be safe)

RE: dividend cover.
The moorland sale plus RCF reduction should produce c. £1m reduction in costs.
The vacant industrial unit if sold should produce c. £0.6m extra savings.
We are not far from revisions making up the difference,

We are currently in a situation (at this share price) that has very little down side... whither the deal goes through or not.

[williamcooper104] 10/5/2024 09:55

For tax I'd prefer no divi now and just return of capital/B shares

[spectoacc] 10/5/2024 09:15

I'm 95% sure the vote passes. Threshold is far lower, and the many buyers from the recent seller aren't buying to block a wind-up, they're buying for it.

Plus the major blockers of the CREI deal were arguing for wind-up being a better option.

I expect API to hold the 1p's until at least the first distribution - uncovered divis seem to be API's thing. Agree beyond that, they may just pay out the natural income.

Roll on the vote, and getting the investment properties on the market.

[nickrl] 10/5/2024 09:12

@PaveyArk RCF is c32m now with recent sales and even factoring the lower interest charges till leaves divi at c85% covered but its now a convenient means to return cash so need to cut at this stage. Of course if the vote doesn't come through for wind down then maybe things will chnage.

[pavey ark] 10/5/2024 08:47

Ex dividend next week.

At the year end the RCF stood at £56m on which they are paying 6.75%.
As the overall portfolio yield is c. 5.75% ..... if paid off this increase net income.

The moorland is up for sale (very positive noises being made)and this is NOT currently producing any income.

There is a large industrial unit currently vacant but up for sale which if sold reduces vacancy rate to a very low 4%.

As with all property companies there will be a revisionary uplift in rental income this year due to inflation.

The point I'm making is that I can see no reason to reduce dividend ....certainly not this year....unless we are to be punished for rejecting their grand plans!!!

I do expect things to be very largely finished in two years and have included a total dividend payment over two years of 6p in my calculations.....generated from the current and remaining properties.

I appreciate that things could get rather complicated further in (share buy backs, special dividends etc) but I can see no reason for a dividend reduction this year.....but it is ABRDN

[essentialinvestor] 09/5/2024 14:51

It was available at .5197 as had a look earlier, but did not add.

[spectoacc] 09/5/2024 14:45

...But only posted now, when it's higher ;)

Bon chance.

[spittingbarrel] 09/5/2024 14:42

Topped up this morning at 51.

[spindoctor111] 08/5/2024 15:44

I do like a big seller to come along in these situations. Took a few more.

[essentialinvestor] 08/5/2024 13:37

Lots of shares available on the offer ATM, I can get a 200k online buy - without the need for a telephone trade.

[nickrl] 07/5/2024 13:16

@EI suspect that if the wind down is approved it will attract a lot more interest then

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2024 11:18

Lagging a much stronger sector.

[essentialinvestor] 03/5/2024 08:58

A bit of movement in the force.

Bought a small amount yesterday.

[spectoacc] 03/5/2024 06:58

As a SHED holder, agree it should have decent upside. Still the sector to be in.

But the difference vs API is, SHED's a maybe, API a cert. Not 40%, but even on a bad market dislocation there's money in it.

[essentialinvestor] 02/5/2024 22:18

SHED was a steal, how it got that low.. simetimes the market offers gifts.

[giltedge1] 02/5/2024 21:30

Skyship SHED will still be st a discount. Sold API 3 weeks ago, paid £1.08 SHED target £1.40 by year end, 32% gain, div 7.7p as well, 40% gain. NAV £1.60, so discount still be 12.5%. LMP similiar coy, trades at NAV, so may be Conservative.

[skyship] 02/5/2024 20:24

giltedge - 40% upside in SHED by yr end!!! A quite laughable proposition.

Just why would SHED convert from a discount to a large NAV premium. Do tell...

[giltedge1] 02/5/2024 19:32

Glad I swapped to SHED at £1.08, sold API £.50. I know holders expect to make 40% in 3 years. I am hoping with SHED 40% by year end + a positive news flow. Not an annual depressing £2m a year to overcharging advisors. Looks like SHED will pick off a few API industrial gems, low ball offers of
course, especially the vacant ones. Surprised vacancy now 10%.

[frazboy] 02/5/2024 11:34

Mindthestash did. Getting the percentage decline and the absolute decline in the industrial assets confused I think. 0.6% and £6m are the relevant numbers.

[pavey ark] 02/5/2024 11:29

frazboy, I didn't mention 6% (?)

[frazboy] 02/5/2024 11:24

Where did you get the 6% from? There's no such information like that in API's update

[pavey ark] 02/5/2024 11:16

Re: Dividend cover.
I agree that this is largely irrelevant in a wind-up but I have penciled in a decreasing dividend into my two year return calculations c. 5.5p-6p over two years.

The vacancy rate and a large part of the dividend cover is due to two large industrial units being vacant......either these can be let or sold quite easily or API are in bother and SHED and CREI are in big bother.

The moorland is interesting and if sold the money will go into reducing the RCF ....a bit of a no brainer given the interest paid in the RCF

Up until £56m of sales (RCF at year end) the dividend cover is not reduced as the portfolio yield is c. 5.7%.....RCF is over 6.5% ....so a slight gain.

Good to see that there is no early repayment penalty on either loan.