Antisoma Share Discussion Threads

[davidbennett] 20/1/2008 23:44

Great find Zagrem.

Looking forward to many more blue days ahead...!

[zagrem] 20/1/2008 15:50

Found on iii site.

"One to watch

25p Unch
Scotsman says HOLD

THE past 12 months have been a dismal period for the market, for pharmaceuticals in particular and especially smaller developing companies.

Antisoma has seen its stock price fall back from nearer 60p to current levels, which looks a particularly harsh judgment.

The group is a speciality bio-pharmaceutical concern focused on identifying drugs for the treatment of cancer. It has a number of products in its pipeline and a cash "pot" of around £60 million.

However, the investment market's contemporary decoupling from reality pays scant heed to such fundamentals. For the patient (no pun intended) this implies an excellent opportunity.

Over the next few months the company should confirm positive newsflow for its developing drug, ASA404, which is involved in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. This drug will go into Phase 3 trials shortly with the support of the mighty Novatis.

The drug dramatically reduces the blood vessels that supply cancers with their nutrition; trials have been most encouraging.

Antisoma also has AS1411 about to enter Phase 2, aimed at treating kidney cancer; the trials here have also gone well.

Obviously, any company involved in the development of new drugs is vulnerable to disappointment. However, the backing of Novartis, albeit with an amount, so far as it is concerned, which would not disgrace a Christmas pudding, is a positive.

For the more adventurous investor, Antisoma looks as good as many involved in that pursuit of the medical Holy Grail, a cure for one of the world's greatest curses."


Further proof the press are slowly latching on to the possiblilty this sector is bombed out.

[hugenoise] 18/1/2008 19:57

Yeah right mike.:-)

[mike111d] 18/1/2008 19:52

The sector is due a bounce IMO and I may buy back in here in due course.

[zagrem] 18/1/2008 18:43

Since i arrived, told you we would soon be more upbeat. Waiting for buy signals before really adding, but gut feel is the press are making lots of comments on this sector's woes last year. That it's out of favour, big pharma needs to replenish pipelines due to patent's running out, takeover plays etc

The attention will suddenly focus market we are oversold once sub-prime dies down, maybe in spring. People may feel more inclined to invest, institutions will snap up bargains and presto, re-ratings and rampers arrive in full force.

Ok maybe not that simple, but i smell a wind of change, even gambled on AZM today as i've made a few profits on MDX.

[davidbennett] 18/1/2008 16:45

Nice rise today - things are obviously starting to warm up.....

Tried to top up at 24.75 when they were 24.5/25 but the offer was taken out at 25 and that was it - next stop 26p. Ended up with 1,792 shares @ 24.75 !!!

[davenic] 18/1/2008 14:25

Nice find DB

[zagrem] 18/1/2008 11:21

DB if this gets anywhere near sub 20p on sector woes it ought to be a steal to Novartis if they really want it. Question would be what is fair value take out price? I've no idea, but presumably a premium to existing.

If they don't take it out, as an interested party in product development, the share should propel back up on positive news and Novartis playing and integral part to help that happen.

But patience will need to be a virtue. Good article though.

[davidbennett] 17/1/2008 23:02

From the FT today:

'Those still willing to invest, Mr Cuddon believes, should focus on stocks that are primed for a possible trade sale to the cash rich pharmaceutical industry over the next 12 months.

These companies include Oxford BioMedica, which may be acquired by Sanofi Aventis; Antisoma, which remains an attractive prospect for Novartis; and Acambis.

Shares in Antisoma and Oxford BioMedica have fallen 35 and 48 per cent respectively in the past six months. Acambis has seen its stock rise 15 per cent in the same period'



DB

[davidbennett] 10/1/2008 14:26

Yes I believe so.

[davenic] 10/1/2008 12:30

That holdings yesterday was it a increase??

[zagrem] 10/1/2008 12:04

Which we don't need eh.........Shhhhhhhussssshhhhh........don't say too much too soon or we will be invaded.......just want a few like me to slowly stick our head above the wall with reasoned posts.

Sorry for not being too serious on this one, just started posting on ADVFN after watching many different breeds on some boards. This is a good one, as is the share, a steady rise one day a positive RNS will make everyone happy, including all of you faithful holders, without the need for the hype some boards create. All in my very humble opinion, being new.

[dasv] 10/1/2008 11:54

Yes, Good post:-

The report estimates that on average biotech stocks are trading at a 51 per cent discount of their fair value consensus. Optimistic industry observers see potential upside in the short-term and believe the sector may have bottomed out and momentum could build this year.

But Mr Davison believes things could get worse as many biotechs are starting the year with less money and the prospect of having to raise capital in more uncertain markets with a reduced share price."

[bluechef] 10/1/2008 11:24

Nice post Zagrem.

[zagrem] 10/1/2008 09:52

Taken from AZM and OXB threads where they are all hanging themselves or listening to shorters gloat. But there's several points made.

Weakened UK biotechnology in need of healthy injection.
By SALAMANDER DAVOUDI
10 January 2008
Financial Times

"The UK biotechnology sector has failed to deliver and its credibility has been weakened by plunging share prices, slow drug development and investor scepticism, according to a report by Seymour Pierce, the broker.

Zhining Xu, an analyst at Seymour Pierce, said the poor state of the credit markets and general negative sentiment had meant last year was a "disaster for biotechnology in the UK".

In 2007 the country's 47 biotechnology stocks, which constitute Seymour Pierce's UK Drug Discovery and Development Index, underperformed the FTSE All Share by 36.1 per cent.

Of the companies in the index 38 suffered decreases in market capitalisation.

The sector's problems were further highlighted by the fact that three highprofile biotechnology companies - Antisoma, Oxford BioMedica and Renovo - struck big licensing deals at the start of the year yet the gains they achieved have since been totally wiped out.

Robin Davison, an analyst at Edison Investment, said: "Larger companies have underperformed smaller ones as investors have taken flight from the sector generally. You can't sell the smaller stocks as they almost get wiped out."

Shares in Antisoma and Oxford BioMedica have fallen more than 40 per cent in the past six months while Renovo's stock has fallen more than 30 per cent.

"It seems a large proportion of investors lose interest, or patience, in waiting for the next value inflection point," says Mr Zhining.

"But all three of these companies have a solid cash position and have their lead programmes covered by their partners so they are in a position to push ahead with early stage drug development projects," he added.

The report estimates that on average biotech stocks are trading at a 51 per cent discount of their fair value consensus. Optimistic industry observers see potential upside in the short-term and believe the sector may have bottomed out and momentum could build this year.

But Mr Davison believes things could get worse as many biotechs are starting the year with less money and the prospect of having to raise capital in more uncertain markets with a reduced share price.

The shift from biotechnology, however, has benefited medical devices and medical technology companies, which often have business models with far shorter time lines to profitability.

Brett Pollard, an analyst at Numis, said: "We are seeing a flight out of drug makers into medical devices and diagnostics as the regulatory risks are less. We are likely to see more interest in 2008."

Last year, many biotech companies were hit by setbacks with their leading drug candidates. Vernalis' Frova failed to gain approval for menstrual migraine from the US Food and Drug Administration.

Allergy Therapeutics' key clinical study was put on hold by the FDA after a reported "rare adverse event" and GW Pharmaceuticals was requested by the FDA to carry out additional trials for Sativex, its leading cannabis-based medicine.

According to the Seymour Pierce report only nine out of the 47 companies on the index made gains in 2007 while 24 of them lost more than 30 per cent of their market value.

The biggest fallers in the sector were Vernalis, which has seen its share price fall almost 90 per cent in the past six months, and CeNeS which has lost 70 per cent."

MY POINT.

There are a lot worse off out there, ASM may have previously done a deal and some like myself sold as it drifted. But given the malaise elsewhere yesterday, from now it looks more stable(i.m.o). The key for those who hold is patience, strongly highlighted in this article!

[davenic] 09/1/2008 09:08

Holdings in Antisoma
9 January 2008, London, UK: Antisoma plc (LSE: ASM; USOTC: ATSMY) has
received notification that BVF Partners L.P. has an interest in
22,425,140 ordinary shares of 1p each in Antisoma, representing
approximately 5.02% of Antisoma's current issued ordinary share
capital. Antisoma was notified of the following in relation to the
22,425,140 shares:1. These shares are registered in the name of Morgan Stanley & Co.(12,656,000 shares) and Bear Stearns Securities Corp. (9,769,140
shares).

[davenic] 08/1/2008 20:37

All excellent reading guys well done

[zagrem] 08/1/2008 20:27

DB article says it all, funds, pipeline in progress with partner, just lacks newsflow. Patience is key. Problem with boards we all speculate, but inevitably test results will drive this,yep stating the obvious, but as i said worth the gamble now as it's not going much lower.

No matter who tries to talk it down, personally can't see past 20, but who cares any shorters would run for the hills on a positve test result so either believe or don't. Let's wait and see, more of this will inevitably attract interest and board will get lively if tipsters jump on wagon, but that can only provide some form of support.

Let's wait and see eh. Not looking to ramp, plenty of others will do that, back in with previous profits patiently awaiting news later in year. Aint a no-brainer for sure, but you won't find many better plays in sector i.m.o

[zagrem] 08/1/2008 17:01

So do I D.B time to phone a friend.

The article convinced me to get back in really, not been posting on advfn for long, but got hold of these way back at 15 in ISA, missed opportunity to sell at top, but got stopped out at 38 from memory. Either way it's been long on my watchlist. Only tend to post in what i hold, can't be doing with hypemeisters or shysters that don't hold, may top up again, but wait for news now.

Will post when something significant to say, which the article does and truly believe worth the risk/reward. Let's be positive eh, potential is huge, but as yet to be reached!

[davidbennett] 08/1/2008 14:29

Zagrem -

The board seems not to be downbeat, just not very active.

I for one am extremely positive. All I see are stale sellers getting taken out day after day at 25 & 25.25, which can only bode well for the share price as fresh shareholders enter this exciting play. The fact that these buyers are here, lurking to take out loose sellers is very positive.

This in my opinion is at the bottom of it's trading range and having built up a holding of 250k in the last three weeks I see this as a great opportunity to start the New Year off with a bang.

I'm sure there are some other positive posters out there, not just us two!!!

Onwards and upwards. I expect to make a lot of cash on ASM this year.

DB

[zagrem] 08/1/2008 14:24

Oops sorry didn't attach.

[zagrem] 08/1/2008 14:24

Hi all, decided to post on here now i'm back in, very downbeat board if you ask me, must be something to do with s.p.

Read this article to cheer you all up