Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[stepone68] 17/12/2015 14:21

Dan - we take it in turns :-)

[dan_the_epic] 17/12/2015 13:04

I wonder which boring person keeps thumbs downing me. Nice playing the man and not the ball TMP - shame the bears have been right so far.

In more serious news, there is flash flooding across some parts of Northern Tanzania at the moment so thoughts go to those there

[dan_the_epic] 17/12/2015 11:51

You sometimes see this sort of nearly market abusing tripe paddled by donkeys when a share price falls. Same happened with Ocado and fake takeover rumours

Question 1: Is the source credible?
Answer: Least Credible person possible. Have a read of the below.

[lfdkmp] 17/12/2015 11:49

Are you sure its not humours; is someone having a larf?

[marnewton] 17/12/2015 11:47

Great album that.

M

[blackgold00] 17/12/2015 11:45

Bun likes rumours,

BrokermanDaniel

"SOLO rumours circulating of Tanzania 1st gas. Only a rumour so tread carefully....." 3:28 a.m. - 17 Dec 2015

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 11:36

https://twitter.com/BrokermanDaniel/status/677450391433424896

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 11:35

Rumours....tweet.

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 11:18

Trend is still down, but always best to average down, the rise here is going to be spectacular and most traders will miss it. Investors can rest assured if they, like me, keep dipping in over time....but then, as I always say, traders are fickle.

[blackgold00] 17/12/2015 11:03

one or two being tempted at these levels, busiest day for a while

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 10:49

Nessie has raised its head

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 10:28

That last one...98k was mine.....getting 1.29999 offered on quantity, 1.28 on very little.Good luck all.Duxy786

[duxy786] 17/12/2015 10:26

Added another 400k today. Thanks for your concern but I dont worry yourself about my portfolio.

[thecynical1] 17/12/2015 10:19

ref 55047....has duxy bet the house on this? Duxy.....your timing was a bit off! : )

What does anybody think is going on here? everyone selling and getting into Bowleven??? faith in management finally gone completely? remind me again when the GSA is due to be signed?

[skinwalker] 17/12/2015 09:15

Stockmarkets are flying! How is Aminex doing? Oh dear! Yet to join the party!

[blackgold00] 17/12/2015 06:24

hi Vike1, well I don't suppose they have anything new to say on the subject just yet, no doubt they are carrying out their due diligence and we are waiting on the approval from the Tanzanian authorities and, partner pre-emption rights which must be exercised within 30 days.

[vike1] 16/12/2015 23:58

Should we be concerned that today's Bowleven AGM presentation made only one reference to the 'potential' deal with Aminex on the last bullet on the last slide?

"Heads of Terms announced with Aminex on potential acquisition of licence interests in Tanzania."

Seems a bit odd the deal wasn't noted in their 2015 highlights or outlook section.

hxxp://www.bowleven.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/AGM_Presentation_2015.pdf

[blackgold00] 16/12/2015 21:02

yes warbaby, "given what has been said and the frequency with which it has been repeated" plus Boleven are also under the impression that their potentual 25% interest in the Kiliwani North Development Licence (KNDL); will be producing soon.

("Average Power sector gas prices increased 1% to US$3.62/mcf in
Q3 2015 compared to US$3.60 in Q3 2014")

page 5

"Average gas prices were down 5% in Q3 2015
to US$4.66/mcf compared to US$4.91/ mcf
in Q3 2014, and down 6% to US$4.48 over
the nine months ended 30 September 2015
compared to US$4.79/mcf for the comparable
prior year period. Industrial gas prices were
down 13% in Q3 2015 to US$7.70/ mcf
compared to US$8.85/mcf in Q3 2014.
The decrease is primarily due to a change
in sales mix, partially offset by annual price
indexation. A 40% decline in heavy fuel oil
(“HFO”) prices, to which a majority of Industrial
contracts are tied, were mitigated by floor
prices in the contracts. Average Power sector
gas prices increased 1% to US$3.62/mcf in
Q3 2015 compared to US$3.60 in Q3 2014."

[warbaby43] 16/12/2015 20:23

That's a powerful point, blackgold, and might be even more so dependent on the price being paid by Tanesco for that PGSA gas. As the resident Orca expert do you happen to what it is or where to find it? Not $2 is it?

FWIW, my instinct is that there will be a GSA and production even if it might be in weeks rather than days. Would be quite remarkable if there weren't, given what has been said and the frequency with which it has been repeated

[skinwalker] 16/12/2015 19:09

Who was it who said this share was a dog?

[blackgold00] 16/12/2015 16:36

warbaby, Tanesco is the end user of about 30mmcfd of gas, from Orca through a PGSA ( Portfolio Gas Sales Agreement) which is processed through the old Songo Songo gas plant, that is owned by Songas / majority holder Globeleq.

would not Tanesco be obliged to now obtain their gas from TPDC 100% owned and through their new infrastructure?

from Orca's Q3 (risks and uncertainties) PAGE 9



"risk that additional gas volumes available to the NNGIP from third parties will replace all or a portion of the volumes currently nominated by TANESCO under the Portfolio Gas Sales Agreement (“PGSA”) until additional gas-fired power generation is brought on-stream to consume all of the Company’s available gas production; "

[warbaby43] 16/12/2015 14:44

Thanks for that blackgold, but I'm not sure how much further forward that takes us.

The issue it would seem is quite straightforward - is there now, or "imminently" to come on stream, new power generating capacity and therefore additional gas demand for which KN-1 is the identified supplier. If so, no problem, and a GSA and production at some level should be relatively "imminent."

If not, then AEX is in a very difficult position with its management having some exceedingly tough questions to answer on a number of fronts, not least on the guidance repeatedly issued to shareholders on this issue.

For nearly all our sakes, let's just hope that the former is the case.

[blackgold00] 16/12/2015 13:05

warbaby, I said earlier, "I think the answer lies in the newly formed TPDC ambitions to monopolise the mid/up stream gas market."

I'll rephrase that. why did they build the new Songo Songo processing plant, when the old one could had been upgraded?

I think the answer lies with the (Tanzania Petroleum Bill) and the mandate that it bestowed upon the newly formed TPDC, also bearing in mind that the old SS gas plant is majority owned by Globeleq, with TPDC having only a 28% share.

note d and g



(2) The National Oil Company, shall have exclusive rights over natural gas midstream and downstream value chain to undertake the following:
(a)safeguard the national interest in the natural gas industry;
(b) participate in the development and strategic ownership of natural gas projects and businesses on behalf of the Government;
(c)carry out specialized operations in the natural gas value chain on its own or through its subsidiaries including processing, transportation, liquefaction, regasification, storage, compression and distribution;
(d)aggregate natural gas, own and operate major gas infrastructures on its own or through its subsidiaries;
(e) promote investment of gas activities in the designated areas;
(f)acquire, analyse and disseminate information on issues relating the natural gas industry;
(g)own pipeline network from central gathering stations to wholesale distribution and end user;
(h) plan and propose midstream and downstream ventures locally and internationally;
(i) participate in the joint venture project for optimisation of shareholder value under public private partnership and strategic partnership arrangements;
(j)trade or supply gas in regional market and beyond;
(k)implement gas master plan;