Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[llandudnochartist] 13/1/2017 13:24

IDP taking off now
ALT blue
TW. ok but boring might bin these off

[mcgrath1959] 13/1/2017 13:08

Keep up the good work SH, off course we all bloody hoping this turns out more than all our expectations !

[ihatemms] 13/1/2017 12:10

SH - we're all hoping you're right (even slightly under-estimating)!

[stephen1946] 13/1/2017 12:04

Hats off to you maths guys, wwwaaaayyy out of my league, my abacus not got enough beads on it.

[qs99] 13/1/2017 12:02

thanks SH for convincing me to enter the fray earlier in the week! Much appreciated.

In case you are interested, I have also bought more COA, KENV and ACA this week.

have a good weekend

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 11:56

156/420 = 0.37

0.37 * $117M * 10% = $4.35M = c.£3.5M

Edit: balls on the line prediction here. I think they should easily convert 5-10% of Aprinta's business to online this year so thats an share price of 150-300p at a PE of 40. I think we'll hit £3 by July.

[melf] 13/1/2017 11:50

So even at 0.1% that's $15.6 say £13M !!!

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 11:42

Yes, for 2016 I think. I found it in a table somewhere. But that is before they double capacity and before the uplift due to using ALT's software. Also, that is printer sales which is about 30-35% of customer sales.

Edit: this investor presentation has the following numbers for 1%

disti sales : printer sales : ALT revenue
$1.2B : $420M : $156M

Edit 2 : so 5% and 100% of Aprinta's current $117M revenue would give 4p and 76p EPS respectively.

[melf] 13/1/2017 11:40

But isn't Aprinta's sales revenue in the region of $117M p.a? I recall seeing this figure somewhere.

[stephen1946] 13/1/2017 11:33

Sheep herder, you are probably right on 27eps, that must be WH Ireland workings also when they forecast £3 a share.

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 11:12

Yes, *my understanding* is that those 2.4M customers are for the 41K Aprinta distributors but I may be wrong. That works out to an average of 58 customers per disti which doesn't sound too far off.

I don't think the market will get spooked by a lack of detail as the share price is up on no detail anyway.

But I do agree that numbers are needed because my spreadsheet is telling me crazy stuff. I think it's drunk.

If you take the contribution level as 10% of disti sales (from ALT's presentation), just getting 4K distis with 58 customers each buying $500 per year gets you to 27p EPS.

[stevehill71] 13/1/2017 11:00

Hi Sheep Herder

Am I right in thinking the 22,000 web stores now live are just the start of the Aprinta roll out & that Aprinta's distributors alone have 2.4m customers ?

If that is the case I guess what we need to know from Altitude's TU is what has the current order rate been from the initial 22,000 live web stores & when will the 2.4m roll out be complete.

Any TU without information like that I think may spook the market slightly, I know it would spook me.

[melf] 13/1/2017 09:29

OK cheers, thanks for clarifying - I must pay more attention in class.

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 09:22

The numbers are the same, but the interpretation of the table was wrong. This is the corrected text:

"Varley says if each of the 2.4m customer web stores due to go live placed just one US$500 order a year it would lead to a gross profit of US$156m (five orders would lead to a mindboggling US$780m whilst its costs would be c.US$15m in both cases)."

So it's looking at the total potential market of 2.4m customers. The 1% and 5% engagement was misinterpreted to mean 1% and 5% of the market rather than 1 order vs. 5 a year. I admit that the use of %'s here doesn't make much sense when looking at how many orders a customer might place per year.

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 09:07

Melf, in respect to what sorry? The point I raised to them? That has been updated in the NAPS section.

[malcolmmm] 13/1/2017 08:49

Short these , who would loan the stock on these? would have thought it extremely hard to short a tiny company like AlT

[melf] 13/1/2017 08:33

SH - as far as I can see the SCSW article online hasn't been amended. I understood they were going to and I wonder why they haven't???

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 08:24

Looking good here. Very exciting.

[sheep_herder] 13/1/2017 08:15

revoman, I'd appreciate a copy if you can. My username at outlook dot com.

ALT can't put it up on their website due to copyright.

[ileeman] 13/1/2017 08:12

Cant buy at the moment unless you want to pay premiums.

[stephen1946] 13/1/2017 08:11

Smithless you are so transparent, shorting was always the intention.