Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[larva] 07/1/2017 14:16

No reason why

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 13:42

So as a follow up, using the 22000 web sites that are live now. If they have a single order of $500 each this year, the bottom line to ALT is:

22000 * 500 * 0.35 * 0.75 * 0.5 * 0.8 = $1,155,000 or 2.7p EPS

Edit: and in 10 years, if they can get to10% of that addressable market, you'd get:

10% * 2.4M * 500 * 0.35 * 0.75 * 0.5 * 0.8 = £12.6M or 29.4p EPS.

[melf] 07/1/2017 13:36

Chaps....what about the bit in the GP3 portfolio write up...."exciting stuff under wraps". 2017 could be a very good year if this all comes off. Ihmm....pens at the ready :-)

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 13:35

OK, I've had clarification from SCSW and they've misrepresented an ALT investor presentation (my accusation). They've sent me a photo of the page in response to my questions.

It has a table which I think is showing the overall addressable market of 2.4M web stores - it has a title of "Throughput return potential". They currently have 22K live.

The table defines 1% Engagement as 1 order per year, and 5% engagement as 5 orders per year. This is for each of the 2.4M potential. So for the 1% case they show:

Distributor Sales = $1.2B
Distributor Buys = $420M (hand-written note I think says "printer sells")
Altitude Revenue = $156M

So from this I think we can summarise that the Aprinta margin is 75%. I calculate that by doubling the 156M due to the 50:50 profit split which gives $312M. 312/420 = 75%

So now I have a margin to put into my spreadsheet of 75% for Aprinta and 80% for ALT.

Also note that the $500 sale is a distributor sale and from the numbers in the table, that results in a purchase from the printer of $175.

Does that add up now?

[larva] 07/1/2017 13:26

Jeez where you guys come from with thumping big slugs like this

[bigbigdave] 07/1/2017 13:01

Only 100k here, dwarfed by ihatemms :o(

[hitsha1] 07/1/2017 12:46

i am also invested in D4T4solution,big time.

[hitsha1] 07/1/2017 12:41

so, on Monday we can get near enough to brokers target of £3.00., happy days

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 12:30

I don't see it as brave. The company isn't is distress of any sort, seems to have good management, and management who own as much of the company as they can. They're currently rolling out disruptive tech that has already been developed over the last 10 years. There are minimal costs to a SaaS business and the product is good enough that they're managing to command large profit sharing deals. Just one of those deals is worth multiple pounds on the share price

These types of opportunies don't come round very often.

[allstar4eva] 07/1/2017 12:26

Luck favours the brave. Hope it works out for you guys... :-)

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 12:25

ihatemms - I guess you and me will be buying the beers at the AGM. :-)

[allstar4eva] 07/1/2017 12:23

Flippin' eck! Balls of steel!

[ihatemms] 07/1/2017 12:21

Tjbird- 175000 in this particular stock.

[allstar4eva] 07/1/2017 12:09

Having said that re:broker targets I guess they have no numbers to work from to even make an educated guess at the numbers for take up. Following the next update there should be some numbers to extrapolate from. Until then we're all shooting in the dark...

[allstar4eva] 07/1/2017 12:04

The quality of analysis seemed poor on at least one other occasion from scsw. One of their naps which I won't mention but they quoted it was a 'high risk punt'. Now I agree that it does look too good to be true (bur it seems it perhaps is the real deal) however their analysis was really shoddy with lot's of info missed out. ALT could also be described as a high risk punt. Of course in both cases the rewards are potentially huge. Overall though they seemed to go for quantity over quality imo. Disappointed.However Monday morning here should be interesting;-)

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 11:54

There are two issues, one is the "$500 per year" and the other is that he doesn't state if the gross profit figure he uses is for ALT or Aprinta.

However, without copying what SCSW says, the numbers compare well to what I had in my spreadsheet if I use $500pcm and a margin of c.80% for Aprinta.

The thing that I find hillarious in that little snippet this month is that after they quote the pessimistic gross profit, they state WH Ireland has a target of £3. If you take that low figure given and work out the EPS that would result, it must be a mistake or else we should all be filling our boots to £50.

P.S. I've emailed them with a bunch of numbers showing their mistakes and will report back.

P.P.S. The one other point in this month's article which I think is fair to share, is that there are now 22K websites live. If only 10% of those are making orders of $500pcm for 2017, that adds 10p EPS if I ignore costs.

[nurdin] 07/1/2017 11:47

The editor of SCSW can be quite careless with numbers specially when it works to his advantage lol.Have noticed that a number of times.It is pleasing to see however that some readers dont take everything the tip sheet says as a gospel truth and are prepared to question it,as I have on occasions.

[sheep_herder] 07/1/2017 11:22

nfs - true, it doesn't add up. I think they've used $500pcm before, not per year, so that's the first mistake. But even then, the gross profit doesn't even work out that big for Aprinta themselves. I'm going to try emailing them for clarification.

[tjbird] 07/1/2017 11:15

how many u got ihatemms if i might ask?

[ihatemms] 07/1/2017 11:11

Melf- you and I may have to start preparing our notice letters soon. lol.

[nfs] 07/1/2017 10:37

Can someone explain the maths re ALT in scsw today on the naps page? It doesn't work

[113mike] 07/1/2017 09:47

Was just asking for a brief summary thats all. Any other shares tipped in cscw out of interest?

[revoman] 07/1/2017 09:39

It's all about the potential, let's hope it succeeds.

[melf] 07/1/2017 09:35

Probably not fair to subscribers to repeat the details of the update here yet, but suffice to say that the numbers are potentially mind blowing.

[113mike] 07/1/2017 09:27

For those of us with no access to cscw could you plse give us a quick overview of the write up? ta