Alterian Share Discussion Threads

[bloodhound] 24/12/2010 11:05

Your buy looks well timed matt123d....:-)

[matt123d] 24/12/2010 08:45

Decided to buy a few more this morning, could be the start of a move to breakout from here.

[bloodhound] 23/12/2010 22:21

Hi matt123d

I agree, someone's been busy:-)

Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Bh.

[matt123d] 23/12/2010 20:36

Still in there, price been a lot firmer the last couple of days, there's a buyer out there at the moment, trying to get some decent size on the book too.

[bloodhound] 23/12/2010 09:04

All very quiet on here these days, maybe I'm the only one still holding!

Bh

[bloodhound] 18/11/2010 09:31

New product release:

[stromboli1] 15/11/2010 16:28

chunky trades recently

[yump] 04/11/2010 09:52

It seems like knit-picking, but this just doesn't make sense. To be fair I guess its journalese speak:

"allowing social media analysis to drive truly personal, targeted marketing such as email and web."

Social media analysis is by its nature aggregated, anonymous and depersonalised.
The data online doesn't really tell much about individuals that is reliable - you only need to look on some of the main sites to see that.

So it actually can't drive truly personal targeted marketing, especially email.

The aggregated information can be used to monitor and aggregate brand and product discussion from social media though. Then presumably there will be a threshold level at which a brand owner decides to take some action.

That may involve emailing customers, but there aren't any identifiable links between the social media and those customers.

Difficult to cut through the jargon and marketing speak to figure out what is specifically on offer. Think I might ask for a quote for my business and get a bit more info. Be interesting to compare the initial and ongoing cost with just using a couple of people to permanently monitor websites - because people will always understand people better than an algorithm.

The bit people can't do is the statistical analysis on the data.

Does the system depend on people in a company receiving notifications of all the areas of social chat about their business and products and then analysing it themselves ? Because when it boils down to it, there are actually not that many significant websites to monitor and if people are going to have to analyse the info anyway, perhaps they might as well get it themselves as well.

If I wanted to see whether product X has any problems, I just type 'product x problems' or 'product x reliability' into Google and trawl the first few pages.

Its not difficult to set up a list of products you want to track and then monitor them regularly.

If there's anything significant, the Google algorithm will have 'voted' for the forum thread or social page, by putting it up near the top.

Just see how quickly something interesting gets onto the front page of Digg.

I assume ALN's is an automated system that picks up on all the brand terms and then reports them to a company for someone to look at. I just wonder how much time that automation would actually save.

[bloodhound] 04/11/2010 09:50

From the post above: "Oracle's proposed purchase of ATG, also just announced, is very relevant."


The business software provider Oracle says it has agreed to acquire e-commerce software maker Art Technology Group Inc. for $1 billion in cash.

The purchase price works out to $6 per share. That is a 46 percent premium over Cambridge, Mass.-based Art Technology's closing price on Monday.

"Very relevant" Yep, I'd agree with that.

Bh.

[applesanpears] 04/11/2010 08:35

Wednesday 3rd November 2010
Alterian moving to the next level

AlterianRather mixed interim results from marketing software vendor Alterian this morning, though these were pretty much in line with expectations. Revenues were up 13% (10% at constant currency) to £16.3m, maintaining, at this headline level, the momentum of the previous year. However there was considerable diversity 'under the covers.' The growth was driven by strong performance in the US – up 48% at constant currency (ccy) – while Europe was up 12% ccy. The bad egg was the UK, which fell 18%.

CEO David Eldridge explained to us that for many months Alterian has had a problem with the UK market, as large-scale capex projects are just off the agenda in the UK, while smaller opportunities paid for out of revenue are holding up just fine. This he contrasted with the US, where companies are determined to buy their way out of recession.

We remain convinced that Alterian's offerings are the type of product that companies want, or even need, to compete in today's market. They need smarter marketing in an Internet age. Exploiting the social web and linking it to targeted emails and websites just has to be part of the marketing mix. Of course Alterian thinks so too. The company has taken a hit on profit (adjusted OP went from +£255k a year ago to a loss of £340k this time) as it moves to the next level. It has geared up considerably in sales and marketing capability, particularly in the US, increased its R&D spending and improved infrastructure for SaaS delivery (it's been doing SaaS for a long time). New offices in South America, as well as a scaling up in Asia with clients from Vietnam to Australia, make this a truly international company. Alterian has moved from UK focused company to 60% export revenues in just five years.

That said, the competition is fierce and hotting up. Oracle's proposed purchase of ATG, also just announced, is very relevant. So it's important that at the product level there's a lot more to come from Alterian: in particular "Alchemy", which launches later this month: this will tie together Alterian's expanding product set, allowing social media analysis to drive truly personal, targeted marketing such as email and web. This is a very strategic product for Alterian, and should really put its capability on the map.

[yump] 03/11/2010 22:18

I think I'm out tommorrow and then buy back on a prospective p/e nearer 10, seeing as there's no eps growth pencilled in for the forseeable future and there isn't much visibility. Tail off more likely than a big dip imo though and time to get in again later for long term growth. I think it will need some biggish news to push north significantly and the risk of delayed or cancelled takeup in the second half is unknown (which for me means quite risky as I'm a pessimist).

There, that should send it up straight away ;-)

[yump] 03/11/2010 18:44

That was a very interesting day and I would guess at something going on that is not related to results. I can't recall any company issuing what are on the face of it results that give no clues to the full year, combined with worse half year and then ending up with an unchanged share price on a rating like this.

Normally that would be enough for the mm's to drop it like a stone and a load of pi's to flee.

[matt123d] 03/11/2010 16:45

Nice recovery, would have closed flat if it wasn't for someone wanting it to close in the red in the auction.

[yump] 03/11/2010 13:49

Well they did 12p earnings to March 2010, which puts them on a historic p/e of 16 ish. To justifiably stay on that p/e for this full year they'd have grow at around 16%, which would mean earnings of around 14p.

Trouble is now, there's no real indication of progress towards that, so a bit of a guess and a minimum of quite a long wait imo, without a bid.

In fact now, they've got to compensate in the second half for a worse first half than last year, so it depends heavily on the effects of all the sales and marketing efforts / expenditure.

Could of course get a series of contract announcements to keep it steady though, although already in the second half, so bring them on soon.

[matt123d] 03/11/2010 13:10

Turning now. Back above 200p by close?

[yump] 03/11/2010 09:43

riv

Seems to be going in the right direction, but as you say in a way its more to do with what might happen inbetween now and the year end, in terms of increasing the contract sign up rate and the share price performance.

With those increases in overheads, which will continue in the second half I think they are dependent on a significant increase in revenue to give results that justify the rating. If they only up the earnings to say 14p, the growth rate won't justify the rating at 200p ish imo. To get say 15-16p they are going to have to really go some from here. 13% revenue increase doesn't really excite.

There's been around a 10% increase in new users in the first half and despite the high retention rate and recurring revenues, I don't think that's enough to get excited about the year end - yet.

There's not much investor patience around and we're certainly not out of the recession by any means, when it comes to companies spending on what could be called non-essentials.

However, there seems to be good evidence that they've cornered an area where there's not much competition, judging by the retention rate and recurring revenues. How much of that is the previous business and how much the social monitoring side is tricky to see.

I can't make my mind up, which probably means I should sell, given that there are certain to be opportunities with other stocks.

A pre-close trading statement here before finals is one to watch imo. Barring a bid of course, which I think is a distinct possibility, but I never hold stocks in that hope.

[matt123d] 03/11/2010 08:39

Looks a good entry point here and someone is bidding in 10k blocks absorbing the sellers.

[rivaldo] 03/11/2010 08:28

Look at Note 10 re cash flows and you'll see operating cash inflows were £1.35m (£1.5m last year). This is the key metric given the high depreciation and amortisation charges - don't be fooled by the headline figures, which are as others have pointed out the usual depressingly bad H1 numbers!

The future does look good, though tinged with a great deal of the expected caution given the huge reliance on contracts closing in H2, which obviously increases risk for investors.

On balance I decided to sell first thing this morning. The results weren't anything special, and all my shares are in ISAs, so I wanted to protect my profits to date. Especially as I can see the shares drifting for a while now with no particular catalyst. I also believe Robbie Burns might sell and his band of followers will drag the price down further.

Hopefully I'll be able to buy back in lower. The good news for holders is that I was able to offload so easily in what's usually a very illiquid share, which suggests there may be buyers out there (or that I've been rash!). Good luck all.

[kimball808] 03/11/2010 07:44

Yep, they did 38% of their full year revenue in 2010 H1 (same for 2009 H1 38%) H2 is Alterians's better half

[matt123d] 03/11/2010 07:43

Not what you were hoping for? Look good to me with great potential for future growth.

As expected anyway, the July IMS didn't indicate they were going to exceed expectations or anything similar.