Alterian Share Discussion Threads

[friendzarin] 13/4/2011 09:04

Sorry for holders here.I sold my holding early last year after what I thought were very questionable actions by directors in selling shares when they must have been aware that they had outturn problems looming.I lost confidence (as well as a substantial sum) then in the B O D as a result.

[cascade sofa] 13/4/2011 09:03

First time posting here (not an insider or in anyway connected to the company)

Immediate questions is how could they get it so badly wrong. They must have had management accounts for 11 months to 28 Feb by the time of the first annoucement and presumably a forecast for the full year, with the differences being March's P&L. They would surely know which deals had been booked and those which hadn't and should therefore have had a much better idea on 4th April.

KR
Cazza

[daytraders] 13/4/2011 08:18

well i guess we aint going to see target price of 276p in a hurry.

[yump] 13/4/2011 08:08

Yes it does explain the CE going. That's one of the worst warning combinations I've ever seen, particularly after all the positive noises of the last couple of years.

[b1ggles] 13/4/2011 07:25

NOW we know why the Chief Exec fell on his sword. I said at the time it 'seemed a bit drastic'; I should have known there was more to it.....

[foxman14] 04/4/2011 09:49

Yea I thought about topping up, as well as selling all or part of my holding, this morning. The thing that concerned me most about the statement was the bit "the shortfall predominantly relates to the deferral of a licensing contract renewal and extension with a major partner." I'd like a better definition of 'predominantly' which is why I'll probably wait for the next statement on or around the 18/4 before deciding what to do next.

[yump] 04/4/2011 09:22

Fortunately I was waiting for 150 on the previous drop, before possibly getting a small stake back - lucky escape.

Bit odd for CEO to step down because of one (albeit large) renewal not happening, but can't read any other clues between the lines.

I guess the lack of announcements of material progress before and at interims and the cautious statement was a clue, because if the business really was becoming a 'must have' social monitoring tool, then you'd have expected something. On the other hand some companies just don't announce anyway and then surprise on the upside when you thought they were not doing very well.

Perhaps making conclusions is more to do with what you would expect from a company based on previous announcements.

So if a company makes a big thing of its 'progress', without actually mentioning revenues and then goes quiet I guess there's a chance its going a bit wrong. Whereas for a company that doesn't promote itself very positively, a cautious statement is not an alarm bell.

[chrisb1103] 04/4/2011 09:18

Talk about overpromising and under-delivering. If they spent as much time closing sales at the year end as they do on all their endless baffling hype and sector "research" eh. This is the trouble with a buiness like ALN which is loaded to the final quarter. Same as last year. I had high hopes for ALN through last year but the statement last Oct gave me a warning so now pleased I'd seen the light (for once) before this happened. Hope it recovers for those that hold. It did last year, but then how many times before people start to ask a lot of questions? and with the CEO off now too... poor show ALN. Mind you there's always been talk of a bid which also kept me interested for a while lol, so if their product is really as good as they claim, now might be the time, but who knows....

[b1ggles] 04/4/2011 09:16

I'm not usually a topper-upper to any great extent, but I did this morning at 155p.

Looks like the Chief Exec fell on his sword. Seems a bit drastic, though there does seem to have been too heavy a reliance on the contract being signed 'immediately before 31 Mar', when that was the year end.

[foxman14] 04/4/2011 09:03

Bought in just over a week ago when it dropped down to £1.75. Doh! After much diliberation this morning I have (for the moment) taken a wait and see approach. Have held these before and made an o.k. profit. No divi to sweeten things though. Anybody else holding?

[yump] 15/3/2011 21:01

No prizes for guessing where the bounce is going to be.

I think the vague interim statement and lack of tangible order / contract / customer news has contributed to this fall. Although the interim statement re: 3rd. quarter made all the 'right' noises, it didn't actually say much - in fact some parts of it seemed somewhat opaque to me. Particularly the 'relatively healthy' comment.

If the business was zooming, I'd have expected them to say so and they didn't.

They also said prospects were increasing, but since then... nothing.

[bloodhound] 09/2/2011 15:47

"Panmure Gordon again reiterated their 'Buy' recommendation today, with an increased target price of £2.76."

I wonder if the MM's have read that.....?

Bh.

[welsheagle] 08/2/2011 20:22

Panmure Gordon again reiterated their 'Buy' recommendation today, with an increased target price of £2.76.

[bloodhound] 07/2/2011 23:32

Some weird trades showing up today, very strange.

Bh.

[johnroger] 28/1/2011 20:00

UK-Analyst today

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" rating for Alterian (ALN), a provider of database marketing and customer insight solutions, with a 253p target price. By signing a partnership with mobile development firm Bemoko, the broker thinks the group has filled an "increasingly obvious hole" in its portfolio. In its view, there are many data points that indicate mobile web browsing is set to exceed PC browsing so, consequently, marketers need to deliver their content to mobile devices. That said, Panmure believes the deal is operationally a "very good deal". Alterian shares advanced 0.25p to 208.25p.

[welsheagle] 23/1/2011 21:12

Tipped by Techinvest in their 'New year tips 2011' as a 'nap' buy, with the highest rating of the 12 tips i.e 9/10.

[welsheagle] 23/1/2011 21:10

From November's 'Company Refs', when price was 211p:-
a/ Prospective PE ratio of 15 (based on four broker forecasts, two recommending 'buy' and two recommending 'hold').
b/ Positive cash flow per share of 11.2p per share.
c/ Net cash per share of 19.1p.
d/ Price to sales ratio of 3.22.
e/ Turnover up from £10.6m to £38m in five years.
f/ Net asset value per share of 102p.

[welsheagle] 17/1/2011 21:10

Panmure Gordon reiterated their 'Buy' recommendation today, with a target price of 255p.

[bloodhound] 17/1/2011 13:00

"either he's got enthused by talking to a journo, or the RNS is cautious for no reason."

Well talking to a journo and writing then releasing an RNS come with very different criteria attached. A guarded RNS and enthusiastic journo interview seems about right to me. Asia looks and sounds very interesting (easy to get enthused here I'd think)etc.

Quietly optimistic has to be the way to go in this commercial environment.

Bh.

[yump] 17/1/2011 11:54

The thing is, has DE ever said anything conservative ? because that RNS is the first time I've seen it.

So either he's got enthused by talking to a journo, or the RNS is cautious for no reason. Why not include the stuff he talked to GCI about in the RNS ?

The statement is neutral at best imo, given the history of going on about exciting this that and the other.

[bloodhound] 17/1/2011 11:33

"With some further technology in the pipeline and a strategy to build on the monumental changes taking place in marketing we believe they are worth holding on to for the time being."

Yep, me too.

Bh

[yump] 17/1/2011 07:41

Been keeping an eye on this since I sold out on after the last trading announcement. Bit of a waffly non-commital statement this morning including this, which is a bit underwhelming considering the positiveness of the statements about social monitoring in general: its the 'difficult to predict' and 'relatively healthy' bits, looks like an excuse for something ? I have to say, those director sales near the top and this sort of statement make me nervous.

I was thinking of getting back in if the statement was tangibly positive.

..."As noted in the past, Alterian's full year revenues are weighted towards the fourth quarter and the timing of sales on major contracts, including those for new products, is difficult to predict. However the pipeline of opportunities continues to be relatively healthy reflecting the ongoing benefits of the Company's continuing investments..."