Alps Elec. Share Discussion Threads

[mbbcat] 06/8/2002 09:28

Seems that attacks were expected & plans for an ofensive against al quiada were formed during Clintons time - but got lost in the beuracratic mess that is US politics

[hilary] 28/5/2002 11:58

To follow on from croc's post, I don't think it will take too much to unsettle Wall Street during the World Cup. It lasts for a whole month although the USA team may well only play 3 matches and be home by mid-June. :-)

The mere rumour of an attack could easily send Wall Street plummetting, imo.

[mr.elbee] 28/5/2002 11:27

Never mind all this..WOT ABOUT THE ASTEROID!!

[chaost] 28/5/2002 11:19

Buy Heinz!

[paulismyname] 28/5/2002 11:07

Under those circumstances moonbase I would not worry about my shares......if I did not die of radiation poisoning I would be more interested in counting cans of baked beans etc if you follow my meaning

[moonbase] 28/5/2002 07:23

Yes I remember Munich, but my thoughts are that they will go after something a bit more low key to start with this time, like taking over a nuke power plant in Europe, waiting until most of the evacuation has been done and then letting it go critical, causing a huge pollution dust cloud right across Europe. This would cause a collapse of the European markets and cause misery to millions. Suspect France my self as they can not stop the immigrants from getting in. So buy all that survival gear

[crocodile] 28/5/2002 06:56

I really believe the football World Cup is such an easy target with almost all the worlds media alreay in place. Far to easy for a suicide bomber with so many people attending. Perhaps a bomb under a team coach of say the UK team.
Remember Munich?

[baden] 28/5/2002 01:15

darious (post 47)

- no

- exclude the "if so" and yes

- if I'm alive, possibly but your response may alter as well

- more than likely

regards

baden

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2002 23:20

With the USA now being more alert to the 'big event' attack (not that they might be any more able to stop it happening), my gut feeling is that the next attack on the US mainland - if there is one - will be a multiple one; a geographically widespread series of explosions at hourly or daily intervals designed to make the whole country feel unsafe and not able to know when it's over or which way to run. Sheer guesswork. Pointless morbid speculation? Probably.. But if the government orders a shutdown of the NYSE in such a situation it might not reopen quickly, and I suspect that stocks will be frozen by decree at the first hint of attack this time. Again sheer guesswork - just trying to think how I might play it if I were a terror chief and a president.

[paulismyname] 22/5/2002 21:43

Driving down the motorway this afternoon I was thinking about this issue and I have reconsidered my views, the thread concept is interesting history so I will leave my earlier comments unedited.

theape is right, we must be prepared else we risk all we have worked for. We do not cause events (mostly) we react to them so in all fairness in suh a situation how can there be guilt. What we do with any profits once made and in the bank is our decision.

I figure there are 3 potential problem areas that is US being attacked either bio chemically or another plane type rerun, Middle East conflict involving Israel/saddam or Pak-Indian blow up. There is also the possibility of an attack on the Internet itself via the secure servers in the US etc that control domain names.

Each conflict could cause different reactions.

US type situation is IMHO fairly easy, short the FT100 and be prepared to close on the day

Israel is long on Oil and guns, short on planes, hotel groups,

Pak-Indian is fairly netral unless it goes nuclur in which case long bio-medicals and anything to do with drugs, and waiting your time to go in short guns because of worldwide revulsion on anything to do with defense

An attack on the Internet itself, protect yourself by having print outs of all broker informatiopn, bank statements and money situations generally. Copy all data on read write cd rom for verification later if any record keeping problems.

Hope thats a fair contribution theape

[dailos] 22/5/2002 18:10

Baden
Am i right in thinking you are seriously suggesting that on days like today we should not be shorting JRVS, if so you have much to learn in life, i'll be interested in your view 10 years from now. It will probably differ imo.

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2002 17:06

Going back to your original post, theape; it's perhaps worth another look at Stephen Foley's comments from September..?



I haven't looked to see how long the original sector reactions ran for.. nor if they subsequently went into reverse.

[baden] 22/5/2002 12:30

I've read 'short Jarvis' many times on the traders thread - post your gains to the dead please.

Regards

Baden

[baden] 22/5/2002 12:20

I find it so clear because it is so clear.

clarify 1or2 points:

1 Any stocks held at the beginning of the night or day in whatever region of the glole should immediately be protected.

2 Any stocks traded outside of hedging after the protection period are blood money.

3 Any stocks held prior to the event that may gain as a result should be held rather than crystalising the gain and pocketing it.

These are 3 easy examples of what should happen - in reality many people chose to profit from a mass loss of human life - nausious to me.

Do I have a pension - yes managed by myself

When does it become ok to trade airline shares - a week or so after (if you need some direction)

When does it become ok to trade hotel shares - a week or so after (etal above)

Is it ok to trade those shares now - of course

How big a disaster - if it is a disaster then you know whether you're protecting your porfofilio or advancing it as a direct result (sleep easy)

Is it ok to trade car insurance after a 40 car pile up - of course because it remains the most dangerous form of transport (40 car pile ups are factored into your premiums)

As for Jarvis - any money made out of this company after the recent crash is blood money and everyone knows whether they made money from the crash (aside from hedding).

Arms exports - you know whether you decide to make money in these shares - I personally would'nt and don't think others should.

I don't point any finger to any one because it isnt worth doing .

For me I know when I've reached the limit of making money (it shouldn't be at the expense of others misery) - I leave it to you all to know the limit or not.

Regards

Baden

30 with 2 kids

[moonbase] 22/5/2002 11:43

good point indalo, but cheap labour is a problem, due to many factors, cost and profit are the main ones

[indalo] 22/5/2002 11:27

Moonbase: I think you'll find that's libelous!!!......I recommend editing, 'cause frankly, you have NO evidence whatsoever to substabtiate what amounts to an allegation of manslaughter!

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2002 11:02

But you can short the Tories, moonbase. Or Labour if you wish. At election time Cantor and others offer spreadbets on the 3 main parties.

[jonc] 22/5/2002 10:48

..and your evidence for that political diatribe moonbase.....

[moonbase] 22/5/2002 10:44

Did jarvis employe sub contractors and cheap un skilled labour to save money?, have invested in any training schemes, or quality control systems?

But the real culprits are the torries they sold of the railways, with no regard for track safety and quality control systems, shame we cant short them!

[baden] 22/5/2002 10:34

not everything - just this. I have a feeling the first grey thing I'll be confronting is the first grey pubic hair - the starter for 10

nice red for blood reference

Regards

Baden

[indalo] 22/5/2002 10:33

I think all this "it's immoral to profit" stuff is plain rediculous!!!

The function of the markets is to allow free trade and a "fair" price to be established...

If an adverse event has an effect on a company's valuation then why shouldn't you take a view and go long/short accordingly???

At the end of the day the shares will end up at the same price...hardly as if you're "putting the boot in"....Just doing your job!!

As for profiting form others misery, you could say the same of these Biotechnology company's that have won HUGE orders for Smallpox Vaccines....or survielance manufactureres who are also doing pretty well from Sept 11th!!!

Long/short....Makes no difference to the victims...Just get on with it IMO

[mr.elbee] 22/5/2002 09:19

I'm not shorting anything

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2002 09:02

So you wouldn't be in it for the money then Mr.Elbee ;o)

Just shorting the share to pressure the company - and all proceeds to charity..