Alps Elec. Share Discussion Threads

[mr.elbee] 22/5/2002 08:42

BADEN....YOU WRITE"I've read 'short Jarvis' many times on the traders thread - post your gains to the dead please." the point is that only a fall in the share price will make them do their jobs properly and prevent another disaster.

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2002 08:37

Must be nice to have such a clear black & white view of everything Baden. Not a world I recognize. But take care.. in my experience people with absolute clearcut views on everything, and who have a skill in calculating odds, are the ones who suffer the harshest breakdown when some grey issue eventually confronts them and where the choice of 'not to play' or 'limit stake' is unavailable.

PS: Maybe should have said black & red ;o)

PPS: I do agree with your comment on an earlier thread re the advantage of short-term market exposure in preference to longterm portfolios. But that fast-moving 'get in, grab it, get out' approach itself is one of exploiting major news-driven opportunities with limited time to investigate ethics, especially with intraday trades in unfamiliar companies.

[theape] 22/5/2002 00:17

i just did it. (shorted bay)

also longed ACM. suspect more countries are going to after vaccines if the targetted countries widens,

researching biotrace as well.

anyone know who are the London based hotel groups ?

[m.t.glass] 21/5/2002 23:26

Glad you find it so clear Baden - but as said earlier, where do you draw the line? Have any of your stocks ever moved when the market moved unexpectedly due to some atrocity or disaster? And if so did you immediately hand back whatever gain you accidentally made that day? Do you have a pension that depends on stockmarket price movement (most of them do) and will you forego any part of it that accrued due to exploitation of post-atrocity markets by the fund managers involved? When does the aftermath end and normal trading resume? How many days/weeks/months after Sept 11 did it become OK to trade airline shares or hotel shares without being accused of exploitation? Is it OK to trade those shares now?

And how big does an attack or disaster have to be before its effects influence a decision to trade or not? Is it OK to trade car insurance shares after a 40 car pile up in fog on the M40? Or Jarvis after Hatfield/Potters Bar? Or the 'blood money' produced by arms export companies whenever victims are (or not) reported?

I realise you are pointing particularly at those who might exploit the worst situation, on the day or the days that follow. But where is your cut-off point in scale of atrocity and in timescale thereafter?

[baden] 21/5/2002 23:14

day traders have enormous opportunity to make money from these events

.

hedging your investments is different (but then you would be protecting what you've got rather than making blood money)

regards

baden

[theape] 21/5/2002 23:09

most traders do so on margin. a 10% drop would wipe them out. so the individuals who are trading lose, and the big clever, capitalist institutions win.

wishing for a catastrophe for a profit is of course wrong. ensuring one is hedged, and prepared is different.

I would probably suggest traders who are regularly long get an out of the money put option to protect themselves.

There is no moral hazard for me. life is for doing good works with however one does it, not for standing back passively.

do not wish to cause offence to anyone, but this subject is worth serious consideration to anyone who depends on the markets to feed their families (and other peoples).

[schruh] 21/5/2002 21:42

Great suggestion mayjuli. Wish more people would think like that.

[paulismyname] 21/5/2002 21:29

theape is right in his opening comments insomuch as he wishes to protect his position in the event of disaster etc, I surpose I am a bit of a moral coward, if I made loads of dosh under those circumstances I could not trust myself to give it all back (hows that for honesty)

[theape] 21/5/2002 15:20

About the only advantage us traders have over institutions is the size of the trades we do don't tend to distort the market.

If one can identify a likely institutional flow of funds in and out, one can ride it early, as the big boys take a while to unwind/ fill their positions.

There doesn't need to be any attack ( and I sincerely hope there won't be), but I would expect that large institutions are hedging their positions leading to a flow of funds over the next few weeks, on the perceived higher risk at the moment.

thats what I wish to ride.

ape

[paulismyname] 21/5/2002 15:13

Surely it depends on the amount of money MT, personally I would prefer to just hedge any equities I have rather than profit (under these circumstances) but "event risk" if set up right with Gar stop loss can pay off well. Say £500 times 10 = £5,000 short on British Airways is as good a way as any. Not a lot of risk. I appreciate locked up cap though potential return has to be meaningful to your assets in total, hmmm

[m.t.glass] 21/5/2002 15:05

theape - if people stockpile shares in every company they guess might rise or fall on unknown events that might or might not happen on some unknown date and place in the future.. they tie up a lot of dosh for an unknown length of time.

Far easier surely to stay liquid until/unless something dramatic happens and be ready to play the stocks whose reaction patterns are known from last autumn.. Otherwise they are tied into whatever zigzag path the price follows on a dozen lesser events betweentimes. Forego the mighty plunge that might or might not come in favour of a lesser gain once events unfold. Only my opinion. Double-guessing the future in every direction gets expensive :o)

[smellberg] 21/5/2002 06:44

Hi Ape. Just thought I's pop in from FBB. My big short would be BAY. Wouldn't do it yet for obvious reasons.

[moonblue] 20/5/2002 21:33

glass hooses JU ...the man who buys shares in weapons company

[paulismyname] 20/5/2002 16:59

I don't mind ordinary trading, and as I have said before traders dont make the world they react to events. However in this case(this thread) I would hope to be out of the market having no position at all. That way I would not have the moral problem of a massive profit on a short or a modest long on the Oils or guns. If I was in and could not get out I might hedge only

[mr.elbee] 20/5/2002 16:49

What is the difference between an ex employee trying to derail a train and a teriorist?

[mr.elbee] 20/5/2002 14:41

John Kemp I think you will find your methods are less reliable than the currently described one in my post.

[jhurbanek] 20/5/2002 14:25

Farnesbarnes - In which case I think you made a bad choice of words as I find it difficult to match them with your interpretation.

Regards,

John

[johnkemp] 20/5/2002 14:03

Around September last year I was working in London (not now), have the gas mask adverts started to appear in the Evening Standard again ?