Allied Gold Share Discussion Threads

[divinausa1] 04/5/2011 13:16

Why UT Took Delivery of 1 Billion in Gold

[divinausa1] 04/5/2011 10:37

the share did not dive when we had the initial news on the repair work to the dam, so the 4 week stop on the results was expected, the Gold ridge recovery rates were on the low side but its just gone into production, the only news that we didnt know was the consolidation 6 : 1

on top of that since the share price top Gold has gone over $1500

[divinausa1] 04/5/2011 10:34

chart does make sense for the news we have had in recent weeks

[juju43] 04/5/2011 09:16

the technicals are totally bombed out ,its hugely oversold and we even left a gap at 35. if this isnt a case for buying ,given the fundamentals, then the theories dont work - unless there is some underlying problem that has not been disclosed , which i doubt

[boadicea] 03/5/2011 17:25

juju - Absolutely agree - and as I should have said above, I've also added today at a price I didn't expect to see again.

[juju43] 03/5/2011 16:56

this frustrates me but its at the right stage of a mining cycle for biggest gains so i have added - must be mad

[boadicea] 03/5/2011 16:49

I hold about half a dozen gold explorer/miners and this stands at number 3, behind the MML (brilliant) and MIRL (afflicted with a reluctant share price like AGLD.)
All three have established production underpinning their current valuation and providing at least a backstop level of cash flow to fund progress, together with prospects of substantial increase over the next year or two from rapidly advancing development projects.

Additionally, and just behind AGLD in 4th position, PGD should become an early stage producer within weeks.

Naturally, I am highly enthusiastic about all four. With the possible exception of MML, the market is less so. I guess gearing to pog, where MML is exceptionally low, is a main reason. My rationalisation of the market view is that risk aversion, being creatively farmed ironically by the big banks, is one cause of the differential between pi expectations and wider market valuation.

Cestnous' point about the large Glencore float (safety in size?) as a competitor for available funds is also very valid.

[ajviews] 03/5/2011 16:00

Yep, do agree divina, the loss of production for the quarter should have been no surprise to anyone and has been reflected in the shareprice weakness before today. If there were ongoing operational problems, then fair enough but there isn't anything major that I can see and thought the outlook would have provided more support today. Will look in more detail at the presentation and costs boadicea points out, but expect that to be under control by now and for the next quarter results.

Frustrating for longterm holders but otherwise likely to be a good buying opportunity, value will out in the end and I don't intend to sell any prior to this production growth phase towards 200k/oz p.a. and given the outlook for gold Allied should be very profitable and trade considerably higher than today for those with a 6/12 month investment horizon.

[divinausa1] 03/5/2011 13:59

ajviews - 3 May'11 - 12:08 - 2505 of 2506

The last quarter with the temp production stoppage at Simberi is reflected in the poor quarterly results (at least a small profit was made!).
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the market knew about the 4 week stop already

as to gold ridge below recovery yield, its only just got going....

and with POG much higher now all this is compensated, must be some very short term punters in this one...

dropped 25% in the last few weeks is shocking

[boadicea] 03/5/2011 12:40

There are two specific negatives which sellers may have latched on to.

First is the cost escalation for the quarter which appears out of proportion and is not explained adequately. There are possible explanations such as the concentration on stripping waste, not to mention incurring costs in an over-strong A$. However, some advantages from this will flow throught to future results.

Secondly, the % recovery yield at gold ridge is significantly below what had been hoped for. They expect to increase this and I have no reason to doubt they will, being at present on an early learning curve. Optimisation may, of course, come at some cost. Nervous markets will tend to discount the worst.

As a further aggravation, we appear to have purely artificial volatility imposed on pm prices by the malign US mega-banks (JPM, GS) with the deliberate objective of unsettling long term investors and persuading them to build in wider valuation safety margins or get out of the market altogether.

This is purely a spoiling game and will just as likely backfire on them.

[ajviews] 03/5/2011 12:08

The last quarter with the temp production stoppage at Simberi is reflected in the poor quarterly results (at least a small profit was made!).

The next quarter should be expected to show a much improved performance with the new mine at Gold Ridge planned to be up to full speed by the end of June and Simberi back to full production and potentially with the benefits of the current expansion plans starting to show in improved margins.

With the date confirmed for Allied to be main market listed by the end of June, the next quarter results and outlook will likely provide plenty of reasons to invest in the company then. Today looks a bargain price and somewhat larger drop intraday than warranted by the results alone and an opportunity for those looking to research and invest here before better news to follow in the future.

[kenone] 03/5/2011 11:54

Still all looks good long term. Do'nt see why it should fall any further. Am holding on to all mine.

[juju43] 03/5/2011 11:32

consistently the most wretched misery i have. why dont i sell ? i keep believeing it just has to get better

[divinausa1] 03/5/2011 11:28

the market already knew about the 4 week lost production so it cant be that



Allied Gold post-tax profit $1.5m in Q3


StockMarketWire.com - Queensland-based miner Allied Gold plc reported a profit after tax of $1.5m for the three months to March 31.

Profit after tax for the first nine months was $10.9m.

The company said it was progressing plans to move its current listing on the AIM market to a premium listing on the LSE main market by June 30.

Cash at March 31 was $16.3m, against $36.5m in December, mainly due to capital expenditure relating to redevelopment of the Gold Ridge Project.

Following the quarter end, the company announced a $93.8m placing, proceeds of which will be used to retire debt and improve Simberi PNG mine production and efficiency.

Simberi production for the quarter was 10,867 ounces, with four weeks of lost gold production due to repairs to a tailings mixing tank.

The company said production restarted in April and mill throughput was again exceeding nameplate capacity.

[divinausa1] 03/5/2011 11:19

falling of a cliff today

why?

[matt] 03/5/2011 09:14

Next quarter sounds promising. Combined production range from 2 sites of 26k-38k oz.



Emerging and developing markets drilling company Capital Drilling PLC (CAPD.LN) said Tuesday it has been awarded two separate contracts with Bhp Billiton PLC (BLT.LN) in Chile and Allied Gold Ltd. (ALD.AU) in the Solomon Islands, but didn't give any financial details.

As part of the contract with Allied Gold, Capital has deployed one rig to the Solomon Islands, which has recently started development drilling on site. The new contract in the Solomons continues to develop the relationship with Allied Gold, with Capital Drilling currently operating two drill rigs in Papua New Guinea, it said.

[boadicea] 03/5/2011 09:08

cestnous - That's a very possible suggestion.
Comment has been made that the Glencore float may mark the top of the market. That may or may not be true but it may well knock it on the head for a time for the reason you state.

[divinausa1] 03/5/2011 02:16

Gold sales of 49,590 ounces in the Nine Months were at an average realized price (net of hedging
adjustments) of $1,269/oz compared to gold sales of 47,455 ounces in the Previous Nine Months which were
at an average realized price of $1,011/oz.

taken from page 33

bring on gold ridge

some share consolidation will take place prior to joining the main market
makes sense
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[boadicea] 02/5/2011 18:34

Given the 4-week processing interruption at Simberi, third quarter figures were not expected to look good.
In fact, they're rather grim with a hefty increase in cost per oz as full running and overheads appear to be charged on the reduced throughput. The opportunity to advance stripping of waste material should presumably enable more efficient running and some cost recovery in future quarters.

The ASX results issue is available from link below and will no doubt be reported in an RNS here tomorrow -


The TSX response to the results is at least positive while many other mining stocks there are down.

[cestnous] 02/5/2011 15:12

Yes, probably Glencore.

[boadicea] 29/4/2011 00:02

They have been selling steadily between 21st March and 20th April and, I suspect, continue to do so. Suspicion based on continuing behaviour of share price since 20th April.
The share price notably recovered during a brief gap in their selling in the first week or so of April.

Motivation is difficult to fathom - there are so many possibilities. Could just be portfolio rebalancing.

Another possibility that could interest us more specifically, I suppose, is that they are freeing up cash to subscribe to a share issue, either here by AGLD or in another gold play.

[monkeywrench] 28/4/2011 15:20

Can anyone tell me how I could find out what Trevor Steel has bought
with the proceeds please ?

[matt] 28/4/2011 13:56

I wondered that too. Also wondered if they are going to sell more. They still have 84 million!

[kenone] 28/4/2011 12:44

Perhaps thats what has been holding share price back, Matt ?

[matt] 28/4/2011 09:27

Notice of someone selling 5 million shares