Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 11/12/2015 14:30

Global regulators join crackdown on buy-to-let
Landlords are already under pressure from British politicians and regulators. Now the Basel Committee is joining in too

By Tim Wallace

12:14PM GMT 10 Dec 2015
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Buy-to-let loans are set to get more expensive under global plans to crack down on the sector, amid fears of an unsustainable boom in the market.

Global officials at the Basel Committee, which sets financial standards for the whole world, want banks to hold twice as much capital against mortgages when the repayments are dependent on income from tenants, joining the Bank of England and the Treasury in warning of growing risks in the sector.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 14:20

Can you specify Basel proposals please Nurdin ?
Cannot find anything special on BTL,a link would be fine

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 12:57

Looks like the share price has been hit by the new BASEL proposal on BTL lending, out today.I havent seen the full report but it appears that the new proposal is asking for much higher capital reserves than practiced currently.The proposal is in the form of a a discussion document and unlikely to come into force before 2020, if at all,so I have been told by the company. They appear not to be worried.

[reddave999] 11/12/2015 12:46

Topped up at 212p, GLA.

[celeritas] 11/12/2015 12:21

Hi Nurdin, yeah still mulling it, I'm very careful these days.
Done ok this year but I do think some big ops will emerge in the commodity sector, just need to polish that crystal ball.

Many stocks are being hit for no apparent reason, always make me wonder if the hedge funds are attacking but splitting holdings out so as not to be reportable.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 12:19

They are also noticeably below anyone else on estimated eps of 24.6p for 2016.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 12:14

That looks super ultra conservative. The Gordon growth model used to be used by Numis in valuing ARBB,which I held. It gave a value of about 70% of the actual share value at the time.I think the ALD note is attached to one on BTL generally.As for the £50m capital deficit,I have no idea where this comes from.Would be interesting to know their valuation on OSB.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 12:08

Aldermore is trading at 1.5x 2016E TNAV, 9.2x 2016E EPS. We value the bank
on a Gordon Growth Model using 2018E ROTE, a cost of equity of 12% and
assuming a 3% sustainable growth rate. We then discount back to get our 12-
month target price. We have included a £50m capital deficit in our valuation to
cover the potential shortfall from regulatory changes around BTL (as covered in
this note). As a result, our TP falls from 267p to 240p. Given 6% upside to the
current share price we retain our Hold Rating. Key upside risks: stronger BTL
growth than expected, relaxation of regulatory tax regime, more resilient
asset pricing than expected, regulatory impact less significant than expected.
Key downside risks: Though the bank need only attract a small fraction of the
market to achieve its growth targets, compressing asset spreads are a key risk.
Higher-than-expected credit losses and rising term deposit costs as rates rise
are also key risks, as are changes to the regulatory tax regime in the UK,
regulatory impact more significant than expected.
Deutsche note

[steptoes yard] 11/12/2015 12:06

Carry on at these absurd prices and we'll attract a bid. It's ridiculous.

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 11:53

Hi Cel,you still hesitating ? Trust your other shares are doing well...will have to swap emails!

[celeritas] 11/12/2015 11:46

40k is more like it, 5k is nothing.

[marcu saurelius] 11/12/2015 11:44

Aldermore (LSE:ALD)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Friday 11 December 2015
Click Here for more Aldermore Charts.

TIDMALD

RNS Number : 8159I

Aldermore Group PLC

11 December 2015

Annex DTR3

Notification of Transactions of Directors/Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibility and Connected Persons

All relevant boxes should be completed in block capital letters.


State whether the notification
relates to (i) a transaction
notified in accordance with
DTR 3.1.2 R,
(ii) a disclosure made in
accordance
LR 9.8.6R(1) or
(iii) a disclosure made
in accordance with section
793 of the Companies Act
1. Name of the issuer 2. (2006).
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
ALDERMORE GROUP PLC (i)
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
State whether notification
relates to a person connected
with a person discharging
Name of person discharging managerial responsibilities/director
managerial named in 3 and identify
3. responsibilities/director 4. the connected person
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
MR DAVID PHILLIP MONKS BOTH DIRECTOR AND CONNECTED
PERSON (MRS PATRICIA MARY
MONKS)
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
Indicate whether the notification
is in respect of a holding
of the person referred to Description of shares (including
in 3 or 4 above or in respect class), debentures or derivatives
of a nonbeneficial or financial instruments
5. interest (1) 6. relating to shares
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
PERSONS NAMED IN BOTH 3 ORDINARY SHARES 10P
AND 4 ABOVE
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
Name of registered shareholders(s)
and, if more than one, the
number of shares held by State the nature of the
7. each of them 8. transaction
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
1. DAVID PHILLIP MONKS (5,000 PURCHASE OF SHARES
SHARES)
2. PATRICIA MARY MONKS (40,000
SHARES)
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
Percentage of issued class
acquired (treasury shares
Number of shares, debentures of that class should not
or financial instruments be taken into account when
9. relating to shares acquired 10. calculating percentage)
---- ----------------------------------- ---- --------------------------------------
1. 5,000 SHARES 1. 0.0015%
2. 40,000 SHARES 2. 0.0116%

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 11:39

Great stuff....glad Directors think like wise mike. Glad I added at 212p

[celeritas] 11/12/2015 11:39

Non of it makes much sense of late. I thought lloyds would have leapt 5 or so pence yesterday as the odds on winning were stacked against it.
Once interest rates rise margins will improve, I do expect the bigger banks to do better than the challenger banks especially with that 8% tax, talk about giving them a good kicking George.

Mike, I'd love to be able to call the bottom of this commodity cycle, it will turn so picking the near bottom will do me.

[reddave999] 11/12/2015 11:37

Directors buying.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 11:21

No idea,Cel,they may have bottomed out today,all one can say is that they appear to be a screaming buy on fundamentals.

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 10:53

Probably foolish but gave into my temptation... :o(

[celeritas] 11/12/2015 10:25

Mike, any idea when the fall will stop, how cheap can it get.
Like I said I'm not a holder but have been looking in more these days.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 09:55

Yes next year's eps growth for all challengers hit by 8% tax coming in. At pretax level the increase is about 30%

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 09:51

Well that has all the hallmarks of a blow off bear raid. Capitulation selling,low at float price,rally and retest before edging up. We shall see.

[celeritas] 11/12/2015 09:50

Sold these a while back after they seemed to become the chancellors plaything.
Wait until he's long, he'll then remove the tax for challengers.

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 09:45

P Morgan Cazenove forecasts eps of 22.9p to end December, with 27.3p next year to drop the PE to 7.8 at 213p today.Looks very cheap but I would like to know the reason behind it.Sorely tempted to add here.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 09:25

Paragon are a very different sort of animal,much slower growth,all BTL and historical issues. Compared to OSB,ALD are selling on 6.4x 2017 estimates,OSB on 8.2.

[abergele] 11/12/2015 09:14

Going back to Hugh Garss post in November,about taxing landlords and rent caps.
I agree,I was a landlord in early days untill 1996..and I had a fair rents officer visit all the way from Cardiff to N/Wales just to see us,the outcome was agreed ok,but why no officers in the north or Chester..Is this what killed that department..the inadequacy of it.??