African Aura Share Discussion Threads

[longsight] 11/4/2011 11:56

j1nxed - I had the same thought. Can't make sense of the Evo note target.

Using US$1.20 per contained tonne io & 667m tonnes, you get US$800m m cap or £489m i.e. £5.66 a share.

I think the share price is in some limbo at present. However news must be imminent on several fronts. I see the contained IO rising to at least 1bn tonnes by year end here. Hopefully more. Using the 1bn figure & the conservative basis of US$.75c a tonne, gives me a short term share price target of £5.30 for later this year for Affrero.

The interesting bit comes when resource size starts to rise closer to 2bn tonne of contained IO & as both projects move further along & resources are upgraded to measure / indicated - & the Sundance infrastructure deals are signed off. Then I see the valuation per contained tonne rising to US$1 & above. At that point, & notwithstanding say 50% dilution [which wd raise some really serious funding], I think share price targets by end of 2012 of hepefully £9.50 & above for Affrero.

[rivaldo] 11/4/2011 11:44

Many thx matrixtrader - 280p will do for starters. I assume EVO will produce something similar for AUE for Wednesday.

[j1nxed] 11/4/2011 11:37

"This is on the basis of an enterprise value of around US$1.20/t of geologically
weighted contained iron."

do they have some other unknown risk multiple that they do not share in this brief statement? i just can't make their numbers add up

Afferro currently has around 1951Mt of ore @ 34% or 667Mt of Contained Iron. This turns out to be $800m in Mcap or roughly £500m which would be closer to 500p a share using their multiple of 1,2. I still have a $0,75 EV/Total FE target (it's a bit more complex since i value putu and nkout somewhat differently) and i have no plans on increasing (unless we have derisking triggers passed such as pfs,dfs, railways, greenlight of mbalam from sundance etc etc) it because the drilling will do that quite nicely

[curt3] 11/4/2011 11:34

Sorry folks for the above re gold companies !! have totally misunderstood the division on this one !!

[greenroom78] 11/4/2011 11:28

Thanks Matrix - is that from EVO?

[matrixtrader] 11/4/2011 11:27

Dont think tis has been posted in full yet - evo note

African Aura (AAAM.L) Afferro (AFF.L) Buy
Age of iron
Now that African Aura has been marked "ex" the entitlement to receive
shares in Aureus it is essentially a pure iron company with significant
projects in Liberia and Cameroon. These two projects offer considerable
potential for relatively early stage development. This is particularly the
case given the strong partner and proximity to the coast of the Putu
project in Liberia. Nkout in Cameroon, which is wholly owned, also has
strong potential all of which currently accrues to African Aura/Afferro.
With a reworked 280p target price we rate the shares a Buy.
African Aura owns 100% of the Nkout iron project in Cameroon and has a 38.5%
joint venture interest in the Putu project in Liberia. Inferred resources have been
outlined on both projects and we see scope for drilling this year to increase the
overall resource base and geological confidence in those resources.
At Putu in Liberia, the company is in joint venture with Severstal, the US$20.0bn
Russian steel, iron ore and coal producer. We believe that this relationship works
well and will help to ensure successful development of the project. Importantly,
Putu is located relatively close to the coast which should reduce capital costs in
comparison with other West African iron ore projects.
The Nkout iron project in Cameroon is wholly owned by African Aura and has seen
considerable progress over 2010. We believe that additional exploration over
2011 will see a further expansion of resources and could also lead to an increase
in geological confidence – both of which would enhance value.
African Aura has now become a pure West African-focused iron ore exploration
and development company and will change its name to Afferro. We believe that
this provides it with increased management focus and that such concentration of
activity will help to accelerate progress on its two key projects. We have valued
the new entity in line with other iron ore exploration and development companies.
This is on the basis of an enterprise value of around US$1.20/t of geologically
weighted contained iron. With a 280p target price we rate the shares a Buy.

[j1nxed] 11/4/2011 11:25

cluff seems to have a very high cash cost for their mining activities so i would assume that most of the potential lies in sierra leone

[longsight] 11/4/2011 11:23

curt3 - not sure what you are talking about. AAAM is a pure IO play.

[seconduser] 11/4/2011 11:22

curt3, you do realise that this is an iron ore company don't you?

[effortless cool] 11/4/2011 11:20

This is an iron ore company.

DYOR

[curt3] 11/4/2011 11:07

Pan African and Cluff Gold are both producing 100,000 ozs per annum and have market caps similar to this one which is still some way from production. Therefore it would appear that they are well undervalued or this one is fully valued at current share price Just my view - DYOR

[soulsauce] 11/4/2011 09:36

Cheers parthus.

If this drops much below 190p I think I am going to have to blow the rest of my ISA money on it.

[donska] 11/4/2011 09:33

Many thanks for the update Parthus

[parthus] 11/4/2011 09:31

I called the Company a few minutes ago.

A very helpful lady explained that the halt was due to administrative glitches that needed to be clarified to the canadian authorities..the ticker, and trading of african aura/ afferro etc etc.

An announcement will be made to the canadian market before it opens there.

[donska] 11/4/2011 07:51

Good Morning All last day of the nice weather so make the most of it!

Still no idea what caused this trading halt pending news in Canada I see...

[j1nxed] 10/4/2011 23:57

there is absolutely no way that the institutions would back a bid at prices we see today! and i strongly doubt the management would approve any type of takeover at this stage

[dreggspicker] 10/4/2011 22:09

I like sean's analysis, people should calm down, it will all come out in the wash I feel, as for a bid, it would be one of the shortest life quoted companies ever known,just one days trading, can't be ruled out but it would be most odd ............

[woodpeckers] 10/4/2011 19:57

Just have to see what tomorrow brings. All will out! :-)

[pwhite73] 10/4/2011 19:51

Trading has not been resumed.



Note the update of resumption of trading on 26/11/2010. There has been no similar update after the trading halt on 08/04/2011.

[woodpeckers] 10/4/2011 19:33

Blah blah - If you go on the advfn monitor, trading seems to have resumed at 15:48 tsx time culminating at 18:03, but I can't see any flags to denote news. (Were these there before and I just missed them or have they only just been reported?)

[blah blah] 10/4/2011 19:17

Where is the evidence that trading resumed - I have the last trade at 1pm local time, before the trade halt, and haven't seen any announcement of a resumption. The share price graph would just carry on at the price when the halt was called, so that is no evidence of a resumption. And Sean, at least one part of what you say is wrong, the halt was called at 8.42pm UK time, long after the London market had closed.

[woodpeckers] 10/4/2011 19:16

affc21- any idea when those trading figures came up because altho' I've been "off the boards" today, I don't think they were shown on the monitor yesterday and bearing in minds the posts, I'm sure someone else would have mentioned them?!!

Hope we get some clarification tomorrow.