Actual Experience Share Discussion Threads

[chapman123] 17/1/2004 23:24

anyone else got anything to offer ??

[big_cat] 13/1/2004 12:53

Can we believe a company chap who says there is nothing to worry about?

[diogenesj] 09/1/2004 20:53

Thanks, C.

[chapman123] 09/1/2004 20:41

rang them and spoke to julian he said agm short and sweet and nothing to put out seems decent chap says should be putting next stmnt in feb pre results didnt seem at all negative about future clear he had to be carefully what he said but he said there was nothing to worry about

[diogenesj] 06/1/2004 11:03

I'm afraid I've given up on these for the moment, Chapman.

[chapman123] 29/12/2003 21:41

never materilised guess bad news after ringing them and emailing them no luck
perhaps they dont like the small shareholder??

[chapman123] 16/12/2003 21:49

suppose it will be out tommorrow the agm took place at 12pm so give the a chance should be on tommorrow if not ring them on
020 7436 3330

[diogenesj] 16/12/2003 10:06

No announcement?

[chapman123] 15/12/2003 22:50

agm tommorrow watch this space could fly tommorrow or perhaps not ....

[chapman123] 14/12/2003 23:11

agm tuesday watch this space as trading stmnt due too

[chapman123] 14/12/2003 23:10

agm on tuesday also trading stmnt could be above 10p before you know it...

last time sales were up 15% L4L if this continues who nows ????

[chapman123] 06/12/2003 22:26

update in shares mag this week says profit takers moved in after tip now good value and still remin very posiutive and issued anther buy note what this space next week as just picked up a pnny on the update can see 10p next week

[diogenesj] 14/11/2003 12:27

Thanks for posting that, C - saves me buying the thing! Quite a sensible article, and I agree with them. If Actif can make those forecasts, then the shares are still cheap (9.625p after dropping back a bit today).

Yesterday's large trades didn't look like Shares Magazine readers rushing to take advantage of the tip, so I'm still looking forward to seeing an RNS which will tell us who is buying all these shares.

[barnetpeter] 13/11/2003 23:42

Bought these at 6p recently and sold at just below 10p. Fully valued at about 10p.

[chapman123] 13/11/2003 22:17

REA HOLDINGS (RE.) – 232p BUY
What happens to rainforest after the loggers have done their worst? Answer: sometimes the land is covered with a new type of tree – palm trees. In Indonesia’s East Kalimantan, REA is developing a 125,000 hectare (480 square mile) plantation complex with its own mill for making palm oil. This replaces biodiversity with monoculture, but at least it turns carbon dioxide back into trees.

Palm trees take four years to mature, peak in production between 8 and 15, and retire at 25. Palm oil is a staple food in Asia and the Indonesian government levies a 4.8% export tax.

But consumption per head is far higher in developed countries because the oil is used in soap and cosmetics. Consumption per head in the US is three times the level in India. As Asian consumers become richer, we can expect demand to soar.

REA started planting in 1994. In the late 1990s, it had to contend both with the Asian financial crisis and two years of El Nino drought.

During these hard times, it brought in a 20% US partner. This relationship went sour and the Americans have sued, claiming they were promised a 30% interest. Their case was largely dismissed by a US court, but could in theory cost REA £20 million.

El Nino will be a lesser problem next time because more trees will be mature. It is the saplings that suffer most from drought. El Nino has also brought higher prices. In 1998, they were close to $700 per tonne versus a recent $430.

REA’s English management used to run Anglo Eastern Plantations (AEP), another UKlisted producer, but reckoned a bigger plantation would be more efficient because it could have its own mill. The new estate was also able to take advantage of more productive hybrid trees recently developed.

Just over 13,400 hectares are planted and the company is adding about 4,000 per year. At that rate, it will be planting fresh areas for another 20 years.

Using cautious assumptions, Hardman & Co forecasts earnings per share of 18.6p next year, rising to 25.6p in 2005. Admittedly, there is then a plateau but, by 2010, the figure reaches 53p. The shares have already done well and still have some oil in the tank.

Shares Summary


Rising affluence in Asia is driving demand for palm oil.
REA is an ultra-efficient producer.
Profits are starting to pour in.
Rising commodity prices look set to drive the shares.
BUSINESS: REA is developing a highly efficient 125,000 hectare palm oil plantation in Indonesia.

VITAL STATS:
Market value: £43 million
Historic PE for 2002: 290
Prospective PE for 2003: 12
Prospective PE for 2004: 9.4
No dividend
Spread: 4.22%


VOLEX GROUP (VLX) – 156p BUY

In normal times, you would need matchsticks to stay awake when Volex is mentioned. But these times are not normal and this company is a good deal more interesting than it first seems.

It is the world’s number three supplier of power cable assembly makers. Phwoar! What makes this market interesting are the familiar themes of outsourcing and globalisation. Volex has been well established in China for years, so it is well equipped to benefit from both trends.

Over the past two years, the management has seen a halving of turnover as the telecoms and IT boom collapsed. It has worked to slash costs. Two years ago, the company made £3 million in the first half on sales of £217 million. This year, it lost just £700,000 on £113 million sales.

Finance director David Hudson reckons full-year breakeven is at £220 million. After that, each extra £1 of sales adds 25p to profits.

In the first half, Volex spent £3 million closing a plant in Ireland. There are no further plans for closures, but they must remain risk. The company still makes two-thirds of its cables in Europe and the US.

Despite this concern, we can see increasing signs of growth. The success of broadband in Europe has given the company a boost and has some way to go. Forecasts for computer and mobile handset sales are gradually rising. Volex will benefit from all this.

The power cable market is also less subject to price deflation than electronics. Extra volume translates more easily into extra revenue.

That halving of sales in three years helped cut Volex’s balance sheet to ribbons. Last year, the company breached a lending covenant, resulting in the hammering of the share price and triggering hefty fees.

This year, the company must satisfy (unspecified) interest cover and debt to EBITDA requirements. But Volex is fairly confident. Net debt was £41 million at 30 September.

Why buy the shares now? Because there seems to be real momentum building in electronics. Spending upturns start with small items, then move bigger. Volex should be an early beneficiary and the forward earnings multiples are still rock bottom.

Consensus forecasts for March 2005 and March 2006 show sales of £248 million and £268 million, giving EPS of 13p and 20p.

Shares Summary


Recent interims suggest the worst is over.
Global IT and telecoms spending is starting to rise.
High gearing has frightened investors. The shares are still recovering.
BUSINESS: Maker of power cables for computers, telecoms and automotive markets.

VITAL STATS:
Market value: £43 million
Historic PE to Mar ’03: -21
Prospective PE to Mar ’04: break even
Prospective PE to Mar ’05: 11
Prospective PE to Mar ’06: 8
No dividend
Spread: 4.39%


ACTIF GROUP (AIM:ACT) – 8.12p BUY

Two years ago, Actif was on its uppers. The risky move into selling men’s underwear with the Joe Boxer range proved a disaster, losing £1.2 million out of total losses of £2 million in 2001. Fortunately, the ELLE brand was going strong, and new management took over in the shape of chief executive Mark Evans, formerly of Grattan and Wickes, and finance director Julian Ghinn. Joe was closed down, but a big customer went bust, losing Actif a further £250,000.

Hopefully, these disasters are now history following a solid set of full-year profits released a month ago and an upbeat trading statement from Evans. Pre-tax profits rose 6% to £333,000 which was ahead of house broker Seymour Pierce’s forecast of £300,000. Debt, which threatened to overwhelm the company at one stage, fell sharply again to £1.1 million – or 27% gearing – a long way from the 2001 figure of over £3 million and gearing of 91%. The store opening programme has been revived, Fiona with new flagship stores opened in Meadowhall, Reading, Glasgow, Birmingham and Portsmouth last month. The 17th store will open in Croydon’s new Centrale shopping centre next March.

The repositioning and restructuring process is complete. The new design, buying and merchandising teams are concentrating on improving sales and margins. They seem to be successful with sales in the new financial year up 15% in the retail arm and 22% up in the wholesale business.

This fundamental improvement in both the quality and styling of products bodes well for the allimportant Christmas trading period. Profits are expected to surge to around £800,000 this year and to £1.25 million next year, dropping the PE to just over 5.

The shares trebled at one stage this year but, having since dropped back from almost 10p, they look excellent value at the current price. But readers should not chase the shares too high as the market capitalisation is still only £5.3 million.

Shares Summary

The market has started to wake up to the turnaround at Actif. With the market capitalisation a fifth of turnover and a very low PE, the shares look like doubling over the next year or so.

BUSINESS: Retailing of ELLE women’s clothing ranges.

VITAL STATS:
Market capitalisation: £5.3 million
Historic PE to Jul ’03: 13.5
Prospective PE to Jul ’04: 7.4
Prospective PE to Jul ’05: 5.4
No dividend
Spread: 8.82%

[chapman123] 13/11/2003 22:14

Shares mag article IMHO some way to go if momentum holds can see plenty of new buyers tommorrow then a fall on monday ???


ACTIF GROUP (AIM:ACT) – 8.12p BUY

Two years ago, Actif was on its uppers. The risky move into selling men’s underwear with the Joe Boxer range proved a disaster, losing £1.2 million out of total losses of £2 million in 2001. Fortunately, the ELLE brand was going strong, and new management took over in the shape of chief executive Mark Evans, formerly of Grattan and Wickes, and finance director Julian Ghinn. Joe was closed down, but a big customer went bust, losing Actif a further £250,000.

Hopefully, these disasters are now history following a solid set of full-year profits released a month ago and an upbeat trading statement from Evans. Pre-tax profits rose 6% to £333,000 which was ahead of house broker Seymour Pierce’s forecast of £300,000. Debt, which threatened to overwhelm the company at one stage, fell sharply again to £1.1 million – or 27% gearing – a long way from the 2001 figure of over £3 million and gearing of 91%. The store opening programme has been revived, Fiona with new flagship stores opened in Meadowhall, Reading, Glasgow, Birmingham and Portsmouth last month. The 17th store will open in Croydon’s new Centrale shopping centre next March.

The repositioning and restructuring process is complete. The new design, buying and merchandising teams are concentrating on improving sales and margins. They seem to be successful with sales in the new financial year up 15% in the retail arm and 22% up in the wholesale business.

This fundamental improvement in both the quality and styling of products bodes well for the allimportant Christmas trading period. Profits are expected to surge to around £800,000 this year and to £1.25 million next year, dropping the PE to just over 5.

The shares trebled at one stage this year but, having since dropped back from almost 10p, they look excellent value at the current price. But readers should not chase the shares too high as the market capitalisation is still only £5.3 million.

Shares Summary

The market has started to wake up to the turnaround at Actif. With the market capitalisation a fifth of turnover and a very low PE, the shares look like doubling over the next year or so.

BUSINESS: Retailing of ELLE women’s clothing ranges.

VITAL STATS:
Market capitalisation: £5.3 million
Historic PE to Jul ’03: 13.5
Prospective PE to Jul ’04: 7.4
Prospective PE to Jul ’05: 5.4
No dividend
Spread: 8.82%

[diogenesj] 13/11/2003 17:15

Almost 5m shares traded today, at prices up to 11p. No doubt Martin Lent is still selling, but we still don't know who is crossing his palm with more and more silver to persuade him to part with each successive slug of shares at ever higher prices. 26% up at the close. Not bad for one day. :-)

[jcrabbers] 13/11/2003 09:38

Hold onto your stock this has further to go!

[diogenesj] 13/11/2003 09:28

Thanks for that, R: interesting. Doesn't seem to to be the reason for the rise, though. Only two trades showing, 1,000 shares at 10.72p and 500,000 shares at 10.625p, both far above yesterday's price. There seems to be at least one serious buyer in the market and I have a feeling he didn't get the tip from Shares Magazine. But who is it and what does he want? No doubt we shall find out in due course.

Price coming back a bit now: only 18% up.

[rivaldo] 13/11/2003 09:01

Apparently ACT were tipped in Shares today you lucky tinkers.

Haven't seen the article and not a holder, but I did look a while ago, didn't bite (boo!) and don't think they're cheap anymore. But WDIK! Good luck anyway DJ.

[diogenesj] 13/11/2003 08:57

Morning, Jeff. Nice little rise this morning: up 32%. What the hell's going on? Have we struck oil? :-)

[diogenesj] 06/11/2003 09:31

Thanks, Jeff. Strange that there's been no RNS: someone must have bought all those shares. Anyway, they still look good value. Let's hope the AGM is positive.

[jeff_v] 04/11/2003 16:03

OI MMs - you're 'aving a larf ain't you?

[jeff_v] 04/11/2003 15:29

Web site updated. AGM 16 December 2003. I'd expect V positive trading statement same date.