Aberdeen Prv Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 03/9/2016 12:10

Good to know in advance I guess. But would be helpful if they said something like "..But by 2019 the company may be in a position to make returns to shareholders".

[killing_time] 03/9/2016 11:51

The Continuation Vote is on the 13th September. The article below was taken from the latest report (results 31st March 2016) and seems to suggest that the board have the backing of the larger shareholders to continue the trust.



Continuation Vote
In 2011 the Company’s Articles of Incorporation were
amended to introduce a three-yearly continuation vote with
the first vote being in 2013. This was passed on 25
September 2013, with support from 99.9% of the voting
shareholders with 74.7% of all shareholders having voted. At
the Annual General Meeting convened for 13 September
2016 Resolution 7 proposes that the Company continue as
an Investment Company in accordance with Article 126.
In view of the investment returns now being delivered
following the renewal of the investment programme in 2010,
the premia to book value being achieved by our investee
funds on exits from underlying portfolio companies, and the
resulting distributions being received from our portfolio, your
Board believes that it is in the shareholders’ interests that the
Company continue. Having taken soundings from our larger
shareholders, the Board believes that the majority of
shareholders would not support a discontinuation at this
time because this would lead to a portfolio run off, a process
which is likely to be protracted and where values ultimately
realised may be adversely affected as a result of the
Company being known to be a forced seller of its assets.
Accordingly, your Board recommends that shareholders vote
in favour of the Company’s continuation. A further
continuation vote will be held at the Company’s AGM in
2019.

[killing_time] 28/6/2016 19:33

The Dollar rising against the Pound has had a big effect on the NAV.
I'm now using Morning Star as Hargreaves Lansdown is a bit of a mess at the moment.

Today they show APEF's NAV at 144.84p which = a discount of -40.28%.

[skyship] 04/4/2016 08:19

30thMar - Non Exec Dir David Copperwaite bought 22.7k @ 87.9p, taking his holding up to 40k.

[skyship] 24/3/2016 21:01

34.7% NAV discount @ 87.5p:
===========================

24 March 2016

Net Asset Value, February 2016

Ordinary Shares

As at the close of business on 29 February 2016, the Net Asset Value of Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Limited was as follows:-

Share class Net Asset Net Asset Performance
Value Value
29(th) February 29(th) January
2016 2016
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------
GBP Shares 134.06 pence 131.78 pence 1.73%
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------

[skyship] 18/3/2016 09:51

Thnx for that

[killing_time] 17/3/2016 19:15

Hi SKYSHIP, Today the estimated NAV is 132.64p which = a discount of -34.60%.

[skyship] 17/3/2016 11:22

KT - could you post where we now stand on HL's NAV estimate?

[elmfield] 07/3/2016 16:44

I may get back in.

[skyship] 07/3/2016 13:58

WELCOME PROFITS FROM LIQUIDATING PRIVATE EQUITY TRUSTS
=======================================================

Due to insufficient size (a lack of critical mass to compete), HPEQ was the first PE Trust to enter Voluntary Liquidation – now finished and delisted.

CDI, LMS, MTH & NRI all followed; and all are in various stages of the liquidation process, with the last three all providing shareholders with profitable Tenders at full NAV.

DNE are the latest to declare liquidation, just two weeks ago. After the brief initial announcement (link below) we should see more detail with the Prelims due on 18th March; thereafter a full Circular will be issued in May. After an initial jump to 355p, the shares have drifted back to 340p; and IMO represent a great buy ahead of those Prelims.



With AUM of just £144m, APEF surely should be next in line on the liquidation route. Of course there is a Continuation Vote coming up this September; so if APEF prefer not to go that route then they’ve got to start making a very good case as to why shareholders should ignore the fact that, at 87p, APEF trade at a 34% NAV discount to the 131.8p NAV and offer a mere 2.5% Yield.

So with a degree of Marketing surely required; and the possibility that Aberdeen will decide to do the right thing (though being Aberdeen – don’t hold your breath!); and the possibility of the CV being triggered, it is worth running some numbers.

Over the past 4yrs APEF has clocked an annual NAV growth of 7.7%, well below most of their peers; so past performance won’t help their defence. However, let’s for the sake of it project a 4yr liquidation programme from October 2016. Let’s be conservative and start the NAV at today’s level of 131.8p. Project forward 4yrs @ a lower growth rate of 5%pa and we get to a final liquidation level of 160p.

Drop that all into a spreadsheet and we see a Gross Redemption Yield of 13.95%pa (ignoring any continuing 2.5% dividend yield).

So, this is all early conjecture; but when I see a return of anything over 10%, I’m interested. When I see a possible return of 14%, then I’ll follow this one further, especially as there is so much profitable precedent from these PE trust liquidation plays. Only CDI has let the side down.

We’ll see where we go from here…in the meantime start your research from this excellent EDISON Research report:

EDISON Report on APEF – Nov’15

[killing_time] 24/2/2016 19:00

So the NAV for Jan is 131.78p which shows that the Hargreaves Lansdown figure is quite accurate as it showed 131.19p last month.

Todays figure shows an estimated NAV of 132.96p which = a discount of -36.82%.

I still believe that most of this movement is because of sterling weakness. Don't really see the share price going too high until there is a change in sentiment for PE companies or we get the autumn continuation vote. KT.

[killing_time] 26/1/2016 18:58

Its a good start. I think we will have to wait until next months NAV declaration as this covers the period from Dec to Jan when sterling dropped off.

Hargreaves Lansdown is showing todays estimated NAV at 131.19p which = a -33.30% discount.

It will be interesting to see how accurate this estimate is. KT.

[skyship] 26/1/2016 12:06

So, today's NAV declaration for Dec'15 takes it up to 127.14p.

I prefer NBPE for the same 30% discount and the 5% yield.

[skyship] 17/1/2016 12:43

KT - Agreed, I've been watching this again. Got it totally wrong last summer - bought @ 90p & then sold out @ 84p; though for a very good reason - needed the cash to get back into LMS for the great Tender which finally paid off in December.

Anyway, I've been watching and waiting for the Dec'15 NAV declaration as a 2.1% rise to 127.1p would take this back up to a 30% NAV discount.

They've always run at a higher discount than peers as the management is deemed inexperienced; and their past performance suggests that a higher discount is appropriate. Still, for $ bulls, a 30% discount ahead of an Autumn Continuation Vote may prove attractive...

[killing_time] 17/1/2016 12:02

I am expecting a nice jump in the NAV when it is released later this month.
The pound is taking a bit of a battering at the moment and with the trust made up of:

North America 62.7%
Europe 24.4%
Asia 12.1%
Latin Am & other 0.7%

it should go up.

Hargreaves Lansdown run an estimated daily NAV which now stands at 130.69p against the latest published NAV of 124.37p which represents a discount of -32.47%.

With weakness in the pound going forward, Deutsche Bank think sterling could fall by another 15% against the dollar this year, something has to give at some point in my view even if they decide to wind the trust up at the Continuation Vote in September.

How big would the discount have to be before it gets silly. KT.

[skyship] 25/7/2015 13:38

Sold my LMS as the Directors are seeking to abandon the liquidation strategy shareholders voted for 3yrs ago. Wondered where to go in the PE sector with the cash raised.

Too late for DNE which have rallied well from an oversold position; and in any event don't like the Scottish connection.

Already in BPM, CDI, JPEL & MTH.

JPEL is a standout performer and may well continue in that vein as Liberum are looking for a 27% NAV increase over the next 2 years. May add to an already overweight position.

Decided to allocate half to APEF - bought on Friday @ a smidgeon over 90p.

At 90p APEF are on a 2.44% yield on a slightly increased dividend of 2.2p - they go EX mid-August. They are on a 26.9% discount to the 123.1p NAV. There is a Continuation Vote in Sept'16.

I sold out at the same price c6months ago. They are no longer the value they once were; but then again, what is?

[skyship] 25/4/2015 13:02

Yea, a remarkable jump in March. With the NAV at 121.38 the discount at 91c = 25% - one of the highest discounts in the sector.

APEF have trod water the past 3 months since I cashed out. Happily I topped up in JPEL (24% discount) and bought into BPM.

Best value at the moment may be BPM on its NAV discount of 27.8% at 148p versus an historic NAV of 205p. That NAV will likely be uprated with the Finals due in June. Also talk of a large portfolio disposal.

[jaws6] 24/4/2015 16:26

Well nav up .RNS

[skyship] 04/2/2015 16:44

Hi Ptolemy - interesting comment. Will take a look at that fund performance aspect; though for the moment I'm out of these - banked the profit at 90p.

Edison have just initiated Research here:



JPEL remains my favourite PE play - at 87c, still on a 26.3% NAV discount...

[ptolemy] 21/1/2015 11:33

Sky,

Another lead led me here and not surprised to find you invested! good luck.

Likes: discount, chart pattern

Dislikes: 50% of performance comes from 2 funds (out of 24 funds). Strip out currency gains and there must be a lot of under-performing funds.

[skyship] 19/1/2015 10:10

Might hit resistance at 93.5c - Discount 19.4% at that level; but maybe that discount will increase at the Dec'14 NAV declaration later this week:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 23/12/2014 14:44

NAV up again - this is becoming a bit of a habit:
=================================================

Net Asset Value, November 2014

As at the close of business on 28 November 2014, the Net Asset Value of Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Limited was as follows:-

Share class Net Asset Net Asset Performance
Value Value
28(th) November 31(st) October
2014 2014
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------
GBP Shares 116.04 pence 115.27 pence 0.67%
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------

[jaws6] 04/12/2014 09:45

looks good on that chart for 2015.
Tks