01/10/2014 00:01:29 Cookie Policy Free Membership Login

China Crash 2012 – Socks, Walnuts and capital misallocation

Share On Facebook

I have for months argued here that the experts have got it wrong. City analysts tell you that by slashing interest rates and by investing $99 billion in new infrastructure projects China can avoid a hard landing and its economy can “land softly” before growing again rapidly next year. The experts have already been shown to be wrong and a massive crash is already underway. As I have noted before your China exposure should be precisely nil.

I shall explain where socks and walnuts come into it below. But let’s start with last week’s stimulus package. For months experts have suggested that by slashing base rates the PRC could avert a hard landing. It has done that already and still the economic data gets worse and worse. That is because it is the wrong medicine. China has a structural issue that it is only going to make worse – the misallocation of capital.

Capital was either misallocated because the Government picked winning sectors (i.e. solar) and so effectively handed over vast amounts of state cash to build capacity there. Or because the banks lent money on very dodgy covenants to marginal enterprises (often because they were leaned on by the Government to do so). This worked as a policy when you could suppress the value your currency so pump out cheap exports to everyone else. But, as you may have notice, China’s main export market (Europe) has issue and the US also has issues. And so demand has just dried up.

As such, across the board China has huge overcapacity. Slashing base rates and misallocating even more Government capital into vast infrastructure projects will not solve that overcapacity. That can only be solved by firms going bust.  If you make money “cheap” that will not persuade folks to invest in loss making companies (eve if they make a real product) but will merely provide extra fuel for speculative bubbles which will crash even more spectacularly in the future.

And so on the real economy, I have already shown you data in the past six weeks to show the terrifying speed of the downturn in:

Underpants
Electricity & Real Estate
Coal, Oil & Textiles
Steel

And now we turn to socks. Specifically a place known as “sock city” which is next to a place known as “sweater town” in Eastern Zhejiang province. This place used to produce one third of the world’s socks (apparently on average we each buy 2 pairs a year). But this year 73 sock firms have already gone bust leaving behind debts of hundreds of millions of Yuan. And is it getting better? Well the article which alerted me to this has a string of analysts blathering on about Government fiscal and monetary initiatives but we have heard it all before. I quote one of the big cheeses in socks, Mr Xu Liele who says “Things have not been so bad since 2003, when foreign buyers stayed away because of the Sars crisis.” Grim indeed. So how will the fiscal and monetary stimulus assist Sock City?

You can read about the crisis in Sock City here

But of course there are still some sectors booming in China. I have warned before that once the real economy really starts to tank then at some stage there are some vast speculative bubbles which will burst. Today I alert you to Walnuts. I kid you not. The price of a pair of walnuts (yes those things that grow around the world on trees with virtually unlimited supply) has gone up by 1000% in the past decade for thousands of Chinese who view them as an investment not something you eat at Christmas. There is now a whole industry based on walnut investing.

To read about the Great China Walnut bubble of 2012 and watch a video with the madness revealed click HERE.

Those who thing China will have a soft landing probably also think that bubbles deflate and do not burst. Or maybe they actually think that Walnut investing makes sense?

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR FREE ON ADVFN, the world's leading stocks and shares information website, provides the private investor with all the latest high-tech trading tools and includes live price data streaming, stock quotes and the option to access 'Level 2' data on all of the world's key exchanges (LSE, NYSE, NASDAQ, Euronext etc).

This area of the ADVFN.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ADVFN Plc. ADVFN Plc does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ADVFN.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ADVFN.COM and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.

Comments

  1. Rick McCoy says:

    guess you got this one wrong

  2. ニューバランス レディース says:

    Gradually Mastering Audio Video High Tech Within the basic package, you should expect the experts to connect your new media system to several video components, like cable satellite, your DVD, or a game console and to attach speakers to it. Speakers in this package will not be mounted either on or in your wall, and all the cables that your system requires will be exposed. In addition, placing the screen on a wall or ceiling requires additional work, which was not included in this package.Expert, home theatre installers provide several service packs referring to speakers being set in place. The minimal service pack deals with 2 items, the next with 3 items, and for more advanced devices, 5.1 or 7.1 surround sound systems are dealt with. The service providers will insure that speakers are placed wherever on walls or in walls you want them and that the afferent wires are conducted through your attic or through crawl space. Your speakers will be provided with 16gauge wire. The video components will be integrated and connected, the speakers will be positioned to obtain the best surround sound effect and tested to work properly and basic functions on your remote controller will be programmed. When the home theatre installers enter your home, they will start any requested work by inspecting your site, and the more complicate the system you want to operate, the more thorough the initial assessment and discussions. There is not a very significant difference between having your screen anywhere on a wall and having it right over the fireplace, but the materials from which your fireplace and your wall are constructed will need extra assessment for safety reasons and in this variant the cables cannot but be concealed. Again, the difference between the speakers of an indoors audio system and the requested outside speakers is virtually none to our eyes but significant enough to the eyes of experts, so that outside speakers make the object of a separate service pack. Not every type of speaker and not every type of wire is equally suitable for outdoor placement.Finally, some words about the remote. In case of a sophisticated integrated audiovideo system, the remote controller is trainable, but do not expect the experts to do this, past basic functions, by default. Instead, for a small extra amount, both you and your remote will receive proper training.
    ニューバランス レディース http://www.mbkim.com/_notes/newbalance-ladies-sneaker.html

  3. ニューバランス スニーカー メンズ says:

    Wicked is Your Ticket to Experience The Untold Wizard of OZ The tale is that of the Wicked Witch before Dorothy and Toto landed in the Land of Oz. Stephen Schwartz wrote the songs and lyrics of Wicked. Winnie Holzman wrote the book. The main idea of the book comes from a novel entitled Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West, although the two stories have surprisingly little in common. The story is that of Elphaba, the green Wicked Witch of the West from L. Frank Baum’s The Wonderful Wizard of Oz. In an amazing point of view twist, Elphaba is shown as the heroine in the story. She is a sweet, kind, and misunderstood person who just happens to have green skin. She goes to school, where she is ridiculed for her skin color. There she meets Glinda, who will eventually become the Good Witch of the North in the L. Frank Baum version of the tale. The two girls are complete opposites. The popular Glinda is interested in being beautiful and wearing the best fashions. Elphaba is a bookworm who wants to get good grades and take care of her handicapped sister. They end up being roommates, where an unlikely friendship develops. In spite of the fact that they both fall in love with the same man, in the end they become best of friends. At one point in the musical, Elphaba is summoned to see the Wizard of Oz. When she arrives, she realizes that his government is corrupt, taking advantage of innocent talking animals and robbing them of their ability to speak. She speaks out against the Wizard, who tells her that she will be ruined if she does not help him. He is the one who labels her “Wicked,” and Elphaba and Glinda are forced to go separate ways in spite of their friendship. The score is brilliant, and the storyline is pure genius. These facts, combined with the fact that Wicked is family friendly enough for children, yet appealing to adults, makes this one of Broadway’s best new shows. The critics agree, apparently, since Wicked was nominated for 10 Tony Awards in 2004 and won three of them. Best Costume Design and Best Scenic Design were two of the awards the show won. Wicked is currently touring throughout the U.S., enjoying an openend run at Chicago’s Ford Center for the Performing Arts Oriental Theater, and also playing in London’s West End at the Apollo Victoria Theatre. Author is great fan of Wicked show and loves to write about the show at website.
    ニューバランス スニーカー メンズ http://www.bosungsci.com/main/newbalancesneaker-51.html

  4. エアジョーダン レトロ says:

    Gradually Mastering Audio Video High Tech Within the basic package, you should expect the experts to connect your new media system to several video components, like cable satellite, your DVD, or a game console and to attach speakers to it. Speakers in this package will not be mounted either on or in your wall, and all the cables that your system requires will be exposed. In addition, placing the screen on a wall or ceiling requires additional work, which was not included in this package.Expert, home theatre installers provide several service packs referring to speakers being set in place. The minimal service pack deals with 2 items, the next with 3 items, and for more advanced devices, 5.1 or 7.1 surround sound systems are dealt with. The service providers will insure that speakers are placed wherever on walls or in walls you want them and that the afferent wires are conducted through your attic or through crawl space. Your speakers will be provided with 16gauge wire. The video components will be integrated and connected, the speakers will be positioned to obtain the best surround sound effect and tested to work properly and basic functions on your remote controller will be programmed. When the home theatre installers enter your home, they will start any requested work by inspecting your site, and the more complicate the system you want to operate, the more thorough the initial assessment and discussions. There is not a very significant difference between having your screen anywhere on a wall and having it right over the fireplace, but the materials from which your fireplace and your wall are constructed will need extra assessment for safety reasons and in this variant the cables cannot but be concealed. Again, the difference between the speakers of an indoors audio system and the requested outside speakers is virtually none to our eyes but significant enough to the eyes of experts, so that outside speakers make the object of a separate service pack. Not every type of speaker and not every type of wire is equally suitable for outdoor placement.Finally, some words about the remote. In case of a sophisticated integrated audiovideo system, the remote controller is trainable, but do not expect the experts to do this, past basic functions, by default. Instead, for a small extra amount, both you and your remote will receive proper training.
    エアジョーダン レトロ http://www.neozensoft.com/air-jordan-retro.asp

  5. アディダス スニーカー レディース 人気 says:

    Gradually Mastering Audio Video High Tech Within the basic package, you should expect the experts to connect your new media system to several video components, like cable satellite, your DVD, or a game console and to attach speakers to it. Speakers in this package will not be mounted either on or in your wall, and all the cables that your system requires will be exposed. In addition, placing the screen on a wall or ceiling requires additional work, which was not included in this package.Expert, home theatre installers provide several service packs referring to speakers being set in place. The minimal service pack deals with 2 items, the next with 3 items, and for more advanced devices, 5.1 or 7.1 surround sound systems are dealt with. The service providers will insure that speakers are placed wherever on walls or in walls you want them and that the afferent wires are conducted through your attic or through crawl space. Your speakers will be provided with 16gauge wire. The video components will be integrated and connected, the speakers will be positioned to obtain the best surround sound effect and tested to work properly and basic functions on your remote controller will be programmed. When the home theatre installers enter your home, they will start any requested work by inspecting your site, and the more complicate the system you want to operate, the more thorough the initial assessment and discussions. There is not a very significant difference between having your screen anywhere on a wall and having it right over the fireplace, but the materials from which your fireplace and your wall are constructed will need extra assessment for safety reasons and in this variant the cables cannot but be concealed. Again, the difference between the speakers of an indoors audio system and the requested outside speakers is virtually none to our eyes but significant enough to the eyes of experts, so that outside speakers make the object of a separate service pack. Not every type of speaker and not every type of wire is equally suitable for outdoor placement.Finally, some words about the remote. In case of a sophisticated integrated audiovideo system, the remote controller is trainable, but do not expect the experts to do this, past basic functions, by default. Instead, for a small extra amount, both you and your remote will receive proper training.
    アディダス スニーカー レディース 人気 http://www.asungvalve.com/make/adidas_sneaker-52.html

  6. ニューバランス 1300 グリーン says:

    Gradually Mastering Audio Video High Tech Within the basic package, you should expect the experts to connect your new media system to several video components, like cable satellite, your DVD, or a game console and to attach speakers to it. Speakers in this package will not be mounted either on or in your wall, and all the cables that your system requires will be exposed. In addition, placing the screen on a wall or ceiling requires additional work, which was not included in this package.Expert, home theatre installers provide several service packs referring to speakers being set in place. The minimal service pack deals with 2 items, the next with 3 items, and for more advanced devices, 5.1 or 7.1 surround sound systems are dealt with. The service providers will insure that speakers are placed wherever on walls or in walls you want them and that the afferent wires are conducted through your attic or through crawl space. Your speakers will be provided with 16gauge wire. The video components will be integrated and connected, the speakers will be positioned to obtain the best surround sound effect and tested to work properly and basic functions on your remote controller will be programmed. When the home theatre installers enter your home, they will start any requested work by inspecting your site, and the more complicate the system you want to operate, the more thorough the initial assessment and discussions. There is not a very significant difference between having your screen anywhere on a wall and having it right over the fireplace, but the materials from which your fireplace and your wall are constructed will need extra assessment for safety reasons and in this variant the cables cannot but be concealed. Again, the difference between the speakers of an indoors audio system and the requested outside speakers is virtually none to our eyes but significant enough to the eyes of experts, so that outside speakers make the object of a separate service pack. Not every type of speaker and not every type of wire is equally suitable for outdoor placement.Finally, some words about the remote. In case of a sophisticated integrated audiovideo system, the remote controller is trainable, but do not expect the experts to do this, past basic functions, by default. Instead, for a small extra amount, both you and your remote will receive proper training.
    ニューバランス 1300 グリーン http://www.mycology.or.kr/pgreal06.html

  7. ニューバランス 996 says:

    Girls Star Tattoos Ultimate Fashion Statement Tattoos have always entralled human beings. One of the most used amongst the different styles prevailing in tattooing is Star tattoos. The fact that they can be put on most parts of the body in different sizes make them the favorite pick amongst others. In Ancient times, there was a notion that sporting this type of design would bring a power or direction to its bearer. Both Men and women can sport this model; however, when it comes to workplace, men outnumber women in sporting a design as they are usually in formal attire, which helps to cover most of the body, which is not the case with women. If one thought that Star designs are 5pointed, then it’s not the case, as they come in 6pointed, 7pointed, 8pointed 9pointed as well. Many of them are often confused when it comes to selection of a Star tattoo, that’s when one can take the help of different forums in selecting the right design. These are extremely famous among women and there are also unique girls star tattoo designs specially meant for girls. One has to be careful while searching for designs of Star models on the search engines, as they are loaded with information of age old stuff. One of the best places to check out, is internet forums, as they have ample information, which is not placed everywhere. Often picking a design is the toughest part of getting a tattoo. We can take the help of online database to select from a host of this model. Many Hollywood female celebrities like Megan fox, Avril Lavigne, Britney Spears to name a few, use Star tattoos. People in Showbiz use designs, as it puts them on the spotlight. Nautical star Tattoos are the most popular among them. People in the Military get a nautical model, as a symbol to find their way back to their house. Usually this type of tattoo is associated with great achievement or wonderful accomplished events in one’s life. When it comes to Girls Star Tattoos, they can sport them in any part of their body like foot, shoulders, ankle, etc… on the basis of the occasion for which they are planning for it. The place of sporting the tattoo should be decided not only on the basis of the occasion, but also on the basis of the attire that has been chosen by them for the event. For instance, if they are planning for sleeveless attire, they can sport it on their upper arm, in case they are going to use miniskirts, they can sport it in different places of their leg starting from ties to ankle, etc… This content has been taken from ideamarketersm?articleid3392621&CFID204442663&CFTOKEN41129604 Looking for Tattoos on girls then you have come to the right place, Girlstattoos4u can help you to find out more tattoo for your skin. For more info about cool tattoos for girls then please visit us.
    ニューバランス 996 http://www.mbkim.com/_notes/newbalance996.html

  8. ニューバランス 1300 says:

    Cheap Horse Head Masks are Also Good and Humorous You can easily procure great options in cheap horse head masks as a number of high quality manufacturers have entered into the segment of cheap animal masks. Horse masks are currently in the bestselling lists in most online and offline stores considering that Halloween is just round the corner. With the advent of quality sellers you don’t have to contemplate really hard on good quality masks. If you are concerned about getting the best value for money, the first step would be to pick a great store. A trusted store, whether online or offline, will have the very best choices from reputed sellers. And another thing that is very essential in this regard is that you need to invest some time in getting the details about various options out there. This will ensure that you do not miss out on the best deals out there. Selecting a great store for cheap horse masks The importance of a credible store with a great brand value plays a vital role regarding cheap horse head masks. The first advantage you get that quality assurance comes automatically. Very often, while buying horse masks, there are high chances that you will not pay attention on a few of the essential parameters that determine whether the item is great or not. Beginning from the size of the product to the material, there are a number of issues to reflect upon. This is where you take the aid of professionals who have been in the selling business for a long time. Today we find that most of the people are favoring online stores. An excellent online shop where you can purchase inexpensive horse masks will definitely have a track record to safeguard. And online credibility is difficult to preserve. Hence you have higher chances of getting the best value for money. Even if there is any kind of concern after purchase, you have solutions via free return policy. Therefore, before you actually make the deal regarding horse masks, check out the authenticity of the store. Checking on your own You should have a reasonable idea about the size of your face. If not, take an impression over a plain white paper. Just the length and width is necessary so that choice procedure becomes simple. Cheap horse head masks are not any means less from the point of quality, but the point is, you will have to deal with a large inventory where there are many different masks. When you are clear about the size, choosing a mask becomes easier. Having a concept about facial size will lead to the procurement of precise sized masks at all times. If you are uncertain, choose stretchable horse head masks that have a soft feel and work well for all within a certain age group. Cheap horse head masks are one of the best selling options in animal masks category. Check out the site creepyhorsemask.org and choose from a great collection of animal masks.
    ニューバランス 1300 http://www.mycology.or.kr/pgreal06.html

  9. http://www.mycology.or.kr/html/uggaustralia.html says:

    Top 3 Tips From an Expert Tattoo Artist If you are looking for custom tattoo designs, a good tattoo artist would advise you to exert yourself and make an effort to do some research. With traditional styles and designs available in catalogs and online galleries, you might find that the design you like is not as unique as you think. Tattoos serve as an extension of your character and can make you look good, so it is right to choose a design that is trendy, appealing and more importantly, shows the real you. With tattoos, you will want to avoid any mistakes. Cover ups are a messy option and removal is expensive and difficult; neither sounds appealing. To avoid this from happening, here are some tips from an expert tattoo artist that you might want to consider. Tattoos are for the Skin Remember your body provides the canvas for the drawing, so what may look good on paper would not necessarily be good on you. Consider your skin color when opting for a tattoo design with a color. The color should match the color and texture of your skin. Try to print or draw the design onto paper that as far as possible, matches your skin color. This way, you may get an idea of what should be and what should not. If your design has a lot of intricate detail, try a color that will bring out the details of your design, otherwise you will end up with a tattoo where everyone will end up wondering what it is all about. The Part of the Body to be Inked Just because you have the perfect design, it doesn’t mean that you can get it etched anywhere on your body. Some tattoos are only meant for certain places, like your back, legs, wrist, shoulder or even your heel. A good tattoo artist knows how to take advantage of body curves to highlight every intricate detail of a tattoo design. Also, some people, although they wear tattoos, do not want it placed on exposed parts of the body because of professional and ethical reasons. A tattoo artist can provide you with some suggestions of where to put these designs that would not cause you any trouble. Tattoos are artwork, and are not meant to be vulgar. The Price Tattoos vary in cost depending on the size, complexity of the design or where the tattoo will be placed. Custom tattoo designs are more expensive than traditional ones, since they are oneofakind. One way to have a more affordable personalized design is by hosting your own custom tattoo design contest. Find sites on the internet that provide a platform for this contest. All you need to do is to sign up, provide details of the design you require, set up a prize, and choose from among the designers who you think provided you with the best custom tattoo design based on your preferences. This contest will provide you with a series of designs to choose from and give you the opportunity to find a perfect tattoo designer from anywhere in the world. To conclude, tattoos are part of your body, so it is proper that you take care of them. A good tattoo artist provides aftercare advice for your tattoo. That includes using antibacterial soaps and moisturizers. Aftercare is important to make your tattoo last your whole lifetime, always looking brand new, attractive and not faded. After all, it is part of who you are as a person, and not just an accessory. Kristen Dunn is a tattoo enthusiast and professional tattoo designer who has created thousands of thought provoking, elegant, and funky tattoos for her clients. She has a vast collection of custom designs to her credit. Winner of several awards and accolades, Kristen is now a founding member of the world’s largest custom tattoo design community at CreateMyTattoo. View her tattoo collection or read more on her blog here.
    http://www.mycology.or.kr/html/uggaustralia.html http://www.mycology.or.kr/html/uggaustralia.html

  10. http://www.hollym.co.kr/english/uggcanada.html says:

    How to Make Money Designing Custom Tattoos If you are the creative type, you could make money designing custom tattoos. How? You could build your own website and showcase your talent, so that you can attract customers who want you to do their designs. The other way is to join sites that stage custom tattoo design contests, or sign up to galleries online as a resident tattoo designer. However, if you have the money, you could choose a strategic location and invest in your own tattoo studio or parlor. As with any business, this is a little risky since you have to make yourself known to the locals and build up your business before you start making any profit. Working online is easier and less expensive. All you need to do is to look for sites online that have the best deals on offer. These online tattoo galleries are in search of skilled artists to join their ranks. You have to provide a sample or portfolio of your work when applying; it is vital for the owners of these sites to see how skillful you are as a designer. Creating custom tattoo designs online is a very fulfilling venture. It creates the widest market for your talent, and gives it global exposure. This will give you the opportunity to be recognized by other tattoo designers worldwide. When a company signs you to their site as their regular online tattoo designer, you can exhibit your work in their marketplace. Since prospective clients check out these sites from time to time, there is a great chance that your design would be chosen and you would get paid for it. Furthermore, if you participate in the site’s custom design tattoo contests and with luck, be chosen as the winner, the possibility to become a tattoo designer who is in demand will not be far behind. Most tattoo enthusiasts and hobbyists check out these contests to get an insight into the work of a prospective tattoo designer. They will be impressed by an artist who can provide unique designs and have been given high ratings by clients. Providing a firstrate tattoo design could give you a fruitful career as a designer. Word of mouth and good feedback from other clients will make you a sought after artist. Remember, the internet is a good way to establish your reputation as a first class tattoo designer; in this way, you get your own following and in the end, could demand higher prices for your work. However, if you are just starting to introduce yourself in the tattoo arena, make it a point to keep your prices reasonable. Do not make the mistake of overpricing your designs. Do some research and compare your prices with those of other tattoo artists who are new to the business. Even the most highly experienced tattoo designer makes it a point to make some price adjustments to attract new customers. Remember, each tattoo design varies in cost depending on the complexity of the work. The most unique and diverse creation could fetch a high price in the market even if it was created by an artist whose name is quite unknown. Kristen Dunn is a tattoo enthusiast and professional tattoo designer who has created thousands of thought provoking, elegant, and funky tattoos for her clients. She has a vast collection of custom designs to her credit. Winner of several awards and accolades, Kristen is now a founding member of the world’s largest custom tattoo design community at CreateMyTattoo. View her tattoo collection or read more on her blog here.
    http://www.hollym.co.kr/english/uggcanada.html http://www.hollym.co.kr/english/uggcanada.html

Leave A Reply

 
Do you want to write for our Newspaper? Get in touch: newspaper@advfn.com


By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

1 site:2 141001 00:01