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One week ago today, on 24 February, Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE:GKP) announced that it plans to bid adieu to the AIM and step into the LSE Main Market on 24 March. That is three weeks from today. Although GKP dominated headlines last Monday, the news has been eerily devoid of anything to do with the company since. Following GKP’s share price is about the only way to glean any information about the company this past week.
Simply put, Gulf Keystone’s share price has declined all week long, including today. Shares had gained some modest ground during the several days preceding the announcement, but drifted from 155.50 on the 24th to as low as 148.00 last Thursday before recovering to 155.00 at the market close on Friday. Shares have slipped yet again today and down 5.75% to 149.85 at 3:34 pm GMT. Even though some analysts are suggesting that this is the time to get on board before GKP takes off, it appears that investors are sitting on their hands.
What are they waiting for?
I think that is a reasonable question. One possible reason is that many are waiting for the price to drop even lower. The silence is almost deafening, but it often is when wise men take pause to ponder.
Personally, I expect that investors and potential investors have their attention focused on some entirely different matters and that their interest in GKP may be determined by how those other issues are resolved.
The situation in the Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula may well be a reason for some of the quiet on the GKP front. The Shaikan oil fields are only about 1,000 kilometers from the peninsula. They are only half that distance from the Russian border. Spillover from potential conflicts like we are watching in the Ukraine have to be a real concern.
The last word in “turmoil” is “oil.” Oil is always an issue during times of widespread turmoil. I am not crying “Wolf!” But I am just saying that the already unstable environment in which GKP operates has the potential to become even more so.
Lest we forget, Shaikan is less than 200 km from the eastern border of Syria, a country torn by civil strife that has been overflowing its own borders for over a year. Not to mention that, although Kurdistan itself is an independently governed entity, it is still a part of Iraq, and though a part, that does not mean that they get along well. In fact, it’s a great deal easier to find headlines about Kurdish-Iraqi unrest that it currently is to find them about GKP. It’s probably fair to assume that their are many Kurds whose relatives were decimated by Iraqi gas warfare. Those kinds of wounds last for generations and it does not matter who the leader of the aggressor nation was at the time. Your loved ones are still dead and your lives are still miserable because of it.
What next?
Who knows? The last I checked, the future is still unpredictable. On the upside, GKP has the oil flowing to Turkey through the new pipeline. As long as the region can maintain a modicum of foreseeable stability, I expect to see interest increase in GKP the closer they are to joining the Main Market.
Real concern? Pardon me? Did March go missing, and it’s actually 1st April…?
It is a very long time since I’ve read such tripe from anyone. ADVFN, I hope you didn’t use any of my subscription to pay for this rubbish!?
By the way Lou, your crow might make it from Crimea in 1,000km, but then it wouldn’t have too much trouble crossing the small matter of the Black Sea, and several mountain ranges.
Seriously, lay off the sherbert when scribbling in future mate.
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“The situation in the Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula may well be a reason for some of the quiet on the GKP front. The Shaikan oil fields are only about 1,000 kilometers from the peninsula. They are only half that distance from the Russian border. Spillover from potential conflicts like we are watching in the Ukraine have to be a real concern.”
I was taught never to take much notice of anyone named after a toilet
*gets coat
BB
Seriously? Apparently you haven’t heard about the first two world wars. I’m not predicting that it is a probability. I framed it as a potential concern that might be on some people’s minds. Let’s see, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria, military actions, threats, instability, uncertainty. You don’t think that these can contribute to some investment decisions? BTW, when can I get a pair of rose-colored glasses like yours?
My crow refuels in mid-air. Thanks for you comments, mate. And remember, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
All kidding and poking aside, I appreciate your input.
That’s good advice. Unfortunately, apparently, no one taught you how to spell. Methinks you suppose the homonyms are synonyms. I was taught never to take much notice of anyone who makes my arse bern.