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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newriver Reit Plc | NRR | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.20 | -0.27% | 74.60 | 16:35:21 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.30 | 74.20 | 75.30 | 74.60 | 74.80 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT & SERVICES |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/11/2023 17:36 by chucko1 Having cash and having a RCF are two very different things. One has a duration of one day (cash) and the other a duration of whatever is remaining. The value lies in the optionality of use of funds, and in the current market, one either believes in the ability of management to make clever calls on the timing of and specifics of a (some) purchase(s) - or, if one does not have confidence in the management, just do not go anywhere near. Fenner, your constant bleating about it is both repetitive and pompous.On the issue of P&L, this is nonsense. A lot of ITs have "Alternative Financial Measurements" which are basically at the bottom of 80 page reports. They are both one of the most useful things they publish (pretty well) and in a lot of cases, the most supportive. As the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway says, read a report from the bottom up! I have to say that bumping into the P&L with the reported loss took all of 15 seconds. Not that I care as I have repeatedly argued that NAV (absent stress) is for neanderthals. As is becoming more widely (and belatedly) accepted by even the average UK REIT investor (and has been a given for 100% of US investors since a year or two following the Civil War). I hope I was as clear as you would wish. |
Posted at 23/11/2023 10:55 by fenners66 Lord Gnome - so I just looked at the results a bit more."Operating" profit is trending down 20m last first half , 14.6m last second half , 14.3 this first half. Now disposed of joint venture (at a loss?!) which contributed 0.5m in the short period this year - why disposed of? So they need to find something new as that trend continues perhaps.... As for ignoring the "adjustments" losses on disposals - I get it its not the underlying business... but its now £49m in 18 months Its like us saying we are incredible investors because we are collecting 29.6k in dividends whilst writing off 49k in stock losses , surely the point is to make money on both ? |
Posted at 26/7/2023 07:49 by chucko1 Nice to see they have trumpeted the 5% they are earning on the £137mn cash. Something that EPIC appear very bashful about, to the point of investor incomprehension.Still to be tested as and when recessionary pressures become more evident, but they do reckon on the essential nature of their tenants' offerings. |
Posted at 25/11/2022 10:26 by mindthestash It's as good a result as could be expected. I think the share price remaining static indicates most investors se this as managing decline so the yield may not compensate for inflation going fwd.I'd prefer the management to concentrate on delivering planning and development gains for the moribund shopping centres. Magement fee income is a downside for me as my experience is that managing other people's assets is a distraction and involves too much overheads cost and time commitment in order to get up to speed. Overall looks like a solid business in a declining sector but upside looks good for redevelopment value to compensate for rent under inflation. |
Posted at 24/11/2022 10:38 by giltedge1 NRR results read well, with tenants mainly robust lower price end B&M, TK Maxx, Aldi etc. occupancy excellent & since large writedowns in Assets, in previous years, NAV unlikely to fall much. Management Income rising added a few % to EPS in future years. As a REIT forced to distribute 90%, Rental EPS a nice problem if an investor. I would like to buy but short of cash at moment. Fill your boots 10% yield. |
Posted at 22/11/2022 22:05 by hugepants 17 Nov 22SHORE CAPITAL NRR NewRiver REIT+ (NRR, House Stock, 71p) New operational management agreement signed NewRiver REIT, a leading real estate group focused on essential and convenience retail, has announced it has been appointed to manage a retail portfolio of 16 retail parks and one shopping e based on the rental income of the portfolio, while no capital is to be committed by NewRiver. The investor, fees and locations have not been disclosed. Following on from the addition of The Moor, Sheffield last year and the expansion of the asset management agreement with Canterbury City Council for Whitefriars Shopping Centre, we see this larger portfolio in a capital light manner. Furthemore, it is consistent with NewRivers medium term target to generate £3-5m of annual management fee income. Although no financials were disclosed (we estimate less than £1m based on its own portfolio), we expect the incremental income from this income stream to be modestly accretive to FFO and, over time, help to narrow the discount to NAV. NewRiver is set to issue issue interim results for the six months to September on Thursday 24th November. The Q1 update highlighted further underlying progress and we were encouraged by recent commentary from Land Securities and British Land on the resilience of shopping centres and retail parks during the period. NAV based on the March 2022 valuation stands at c133p per share and we forecast a FY23F dividend of 6p per share. At 72p per share, NewRiver trades at 0.5x historic book value, with a dividend yield of 8.4% (80% payout ratio). With the ongoing repositioning of the estate towards resilient retail, we see NewRiver as well positioned in an uncertain sector, with starting property yields high, a broad and diverse tenant base focused on the value end of retail and balance sheet metrics improving, with the March 2022 LTV at 34% |
Posted at 17/11/2022 07:22 by cwa1 17 November 2022NewRiver REIT plc ("NewRiver" or the "Company" or the "Group") New operational management agreement signed NewRiver is pleased to announce that it has been appointed by a leading real estate investor to manage a retail portfolio including 16 retail parks and one shopping centre in the UK. The appointment for a term of three years will include leasing and property management responsibilities in return for a fee calculated with reference to the rental income of the portfolio. NewRiver will not be required to commit any capital under this agreement. The appointment is aligned with NewRiver's strategic aim to use its specialist retail platform to enhance earnings in a capital light way by working in partnership with institutions and other capital providers. It follows the expansion and extension of the Canterbury City Council asset management agreement for Whitefriars Shopping Centre and The Riverside, and the addition of The Moor, Sheffield, to the Joint Venture with BRAVO during the last financial year. This additional portfolio comprising predominately retail parks has an occupier profile aligned with NewRiver's portfolio and increases its retail parks under management to 31. Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive of NewRiver, said: "We are delighted to be selected as an operating partner to manage this portfolio of resilient retail assets . In doing so, we have achieved another milestone in our strategic focus to expand our capital partnerships and enhance recurring revenue streams in a capital light way. NewRiver's selection demonstrates our unique combination of scale, expertise, relationships and governance, which means we are well placed to provide best-in-class management expertise." |
Posted at 30/4/2022 09:24 by marksp2011 From the VIP H1 Report.In the last couple of years my little high street has acquired Sainsbury, Tesco, LIDL and Iceland which adds some credence to the VIP comments. ==================== Retail - Off the Bottom Overall - Out of Town Buoyant, In Town Improving if Rents Realistic Many retailers in high streets and shopping centres were already on their last legs before COVID; online retail sales market share reached 36% in 2020, up from 20% a year before and only 14% five years ago. The pandemic hit them hard in two ways: mainly by getting older shoppers, in particular, used to the range and convenience of shopping online, but also by encouraging a switch from public transport and parking in congested city centres to the relative ease of car-borne shopping out of town, especially where well-run retail warehouse operators like B&Q, trade counters, B&M and Home Bargains trade alongside the leading supermarkets. Retail warehouse rents were under downward pressure pre-pandemic, but have now stabilised and capital values are growing rapidly - partly because many institutional investors have missed the market in industrial property, want no more offices, and have money which they are struggling to invest. On the high street, the steepest falls in property values have happened in "prime" Central London and other prime highly valued cities and towns which are now unaffordable for both multiple and individual retailers. Unfair business rates had already crippled urban high streets in less prosperous parts of the UK, with fundamental reform rejected in the latest Budget. Suburbs and market towns with more affordable rents and an attractive mix of convenience and independent traders are outperforming as shops re-open and new retailers take space. Transaction volumes are rising again for high street shops and shopping centres, but only at double figure yields unless they offer compelling residential or other alternative use values. |
Posted at 07/1/2022 12:13 by sphere25 Well, there was an opportunity to sell some at 97p and buy them back about 5p cheaper. A few sharp folk got some away but I wasn't on the ball.Forecasts: 2022 EPS 7.9p DPS 6.4p 2023 EPS 8.1p DPS 6.7p Probably too boring for some. IC article Tip style: Income Risk rating: Low Timescale: Long Term Bull points +Balance sheet has been repaired +Slowing valuation declines +High occupancy, better collections +Shares at a big discount to NAV Bear points -Weak market sentiment -Latest virus news In theory, knowing when to buy a real estate investment trust (Reit) should be simple. “The best indicator of whether it’s worth investing is a discount to net asset value (NAV),” says one property industry veteran who buys and sell shares in Reits on behalf of a prominent UK billionaire’s family trust. “Normally when it is trading at a premium you risk paying the wrong price.” But in recent years, shareholders have been rewarded for continually backing premium-rated landlords focused on logistics, GP surgeries and self-storage. Bets on a value-led bounce in the owners of retail parks and shopping centres have largely proved fruitless: share price declines have usually been followed by valuation falls, pushing up company indebtedness just as assets become harder to sell. NewRiver Reit (NRR) is an example of the latter trend. The group, which operates 30 shopping centres and 18 retail parks across the country, aims to “own and manage the most resilient retail portfolio in the UK”. For the past few years, the portfolio has proved anything but resilient. Since March 2018, book value has more than halved from 292p a share as weak tenant trading and the pandemic clobbered investment values, further stretching an overextended balance sheet. Currently, investors see little let-up in that trajectory. In November, the group reported net asset value (NAV) of 131p a share, down 13 per cent. The shares' steep discount to NAV suggests the market sees fair value a third lower still. This is perfectly understandable: calling the bottom in retail has been done many times, and with little success. Investors should always look to avoid catching falling knives. Signal swings That said, NewRiver no longer resembles the falling knife it did even six months ago. Although shareholder equity shrank in the half-year to September, most signs now point to repair. For a start, the balance sheet looks far healthier. The first six months of the year included £236m of disposals, dominated by August’s sale of pub chain Hawthorn for £224m. Management described the valuation – 11.5 times pro-forma cash profits for the year to March 2020 – as at the “upper-endR This freed up cash to pay down a £170m revolving credit facility, cancel a £165m term loan and reduce the loan-to-value ratio to 39.4 per cent, from 50.6 per cent last March. Reassuringly, the only outstanding debt on NewRiver’s balance sheet is now a £300m bond maturing in 2028, and which was reaffirmed as investment-grade by Fitch three weeks ago. However, selling assets to de-leverage only changes so much. A far more important question for any investor in the retail economy to ask is how much more harm can come from ecommerce. Unsurprisingly, NewRiver has thought about this a lot. At a capital markets event in September, the Reit outlined a new framework to help categorise any UK retail asset and deploy capital accordingly. At present, 70 per cent of its assets are classed as either resilient or stable, meaning they are affordable retail sites backed by good fundamentals, but might require long-term intervention. Over time, NewRiver wants to increase this ratio to more than 90 per cent, with the remainder comprising assets whose values can grow via intervention or alternative use. ‘At risk’ assets – specifically underperforming shopping centres facing oversupply, and with limited alternative use and turnaround prospects – are to be sold off by March 2023. These so-called ‘work out’ sites are now worth £104m, following a 19 per cent downward revaluation in the first half of this year. Seven are on the block for sale in the coming months, with another four being repositioned for the ‘core’ shopping centre portfolio. Why might a landlord still believe in regional shopping centres and retail parks? For one, a more liquid investment market for the kind of sub-£20m asset NewRiver specialises in has helped to stabilise estimated rental values. Let's get physical More importantly, consumers haven’t entirely disappeared onto the internet. Indeed, for many store types, physical retail is either the dominant sales channel or indispensable in the supply chain that supports online offerings. The rise of fulfilment centres and online returns will continue to drive footfall to shopping clusters. And if city centres are likely to be hit by a permanent shift to hybrid office working, the residential areas where NewRiver's sites are normally based should benefit. A version of this thesis underpins premium ratings for some retail landlords, Supermarket Reit (SUPR) and LXI Reit (LXI) among them. NewRiver’s tenant base also stands out for its diversification (see table) and stability. At a group-wide average of £11.51 per square foot, rents are affordable and that explains why rent collections came to 90 per cent in the first half. A 96 per cent occupancy rate is also encouraging, as are recent demand trends: so far this year, long-term lease deals have been struck at a double-digit premium to estimated values. Sadly, this doesn’t mean valuations won’t dip further by March. The Omicron variant is an unwelcome development for the entire UK economy, regardless of the relative resilience of certain retail sub-sectors. But chief executive Allan Lockhart is confident that he will be talking about portfolio growth by this time next year, a view that helps explain why broker Liberum thinks the shares should trade in line with NAV. Until then, and following the reintroduction of dividends, investors will have to make do with a yield above 8 per cent. Sentiment looks behind the improving curve. |
Posted at 23/12/2021 22:42 by chucko1 Was it was poorly positioned a priori? Absent the pandemic, I see little evidence that they would not have been able to provide a reasonable return, especially over the long run which is not yet spent. Property cycles are long even if the patience of share traders is short. That three huge funds were forced to abandon this stock, representing some 70% of the entire company is partial testimony. The last of the three at 46p, such a time when there were comments posted on here similar to those I am criticising today. Well, that's a doubling of investment missed by some!They are experts as they have shown in previous incarnations. David Lockhart had conspicuous success and more than once in a long career. Alan Lockhart will likely have learned much in that time. He is paid a reasonable amount for sure, but you pay for experience. But no one had to experience a pandemic before. Given the above, those complaining about performance are, as I said, missing the essential point and therefore have only themselves to look to. I am a shareholder, and am at about breakeven by understanding the fears and opportunities attached to this security - not that it has been easy. The fact that I have made a lot on other REITs means nothing in terms of my perception of what is going on here. A perfect storm hit NRR, but it has managed the situation pretty well and this will become clearer in time, in my opinion. As an equivalent(ish) one could look at, for example, SL Green Reality Corp in the US which specialises in NY offices. Has been smashed in about the same proportion as has NRR. No need to ask why - it was just the thing they did which they were prevented from doing as envisaged. If you were positioned sensibly as an investor, then I am sure you would be back on track and looking at decent future returns. The excellent iReit publication highly recommends it and takes an entirely practical view on what management has done to deal with the situation. So what if the share price has been clobbered (and the NAV in turn - although they rightly care little about the NAV in the US REIT market as FFO is what pays the dividend)? By contrast, Boston Properties (BXP) has been far less affected. Would one seriously blame the management of SLG for their NY-centered stock selection and praise that of BXP? Pure bad luck, as similarly happened to US banks in 1929 to 1933. Little rhyme or reason why they might have suffered different fates other than their precise positioning at one given time. And I am contending that many who moan on these boards are unable to distinguish between bad luck and bad management. This is often because they are angry owing to poor overall investing judgement/risk management. Such a shock to the system is akin to the tide going out - you thought you knew it all but never considered that you could not. Saw the same in 2008/9 with many ITs - investors railed at management and talked themselves out of the excruciatingly obvious eventual recovery. They lost patience because they failed to understand what was really going on, seeing only the share price as an explanatory tool. On NAV, only the specific sector of warehouses has notably increased NAV and dividends (in the US, add cell towers etc. to the list). A pandemic-induced rush for this real estate has been responsible, but it is not clear how quickly this would otherwise have occurred in more steady circumstances. |
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