Zephyr Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shrewdmole] 17/7/2024 16:52

I wonder who maybe party to these results as part of any ongoing farm in or sale discussion.

There’s no way they haven’t got a preferred partner or two in mind that’s been having regular updates.

Personally hope we do t sell and we reap the rewards for patience and see the bigger picture come forward but admit we do need a major partner who can carry out the field development.

[tima441] 17/7/2024 16:46

Revs are total for 1 year based on those assumptions.

Of course decline rates and multitude of unknowns too - so need to wait for co to announce facts on initial flows, ratios, reserves etc as a starting point

[2 solaris] 17/7/2024 16:39

Nice end to the day, maybe people are at last waking up to the fact we have a substantial discovery here.
What are those totals tima441? For instance $16 is over what period, days, weeks, months, year, life of well...?

[shrewdmole] 17/7/2024 16:09

Thanks guys.

The small overhang that was there last couple of days is gone now. Looks ready for another tick up.

[tima441] 17/7/2024 12:17

Taking above numbers... let's have a few other examples.

Based:
1500boed
$80 condensate boe
$12 gas boe

Gas 25:75 condensate
1125boed condensate @ $80 = $33m revs
375boed gas @ $12* = $1.5m revs
Total = $34.5m

Gas 75:25 condensate
375boed condensate @ $80 = $11m revs
1125boed gas @ $12* = $5m revs
Total = $16m

Even a very gassy well is ok...
- its profitable
- gas cannot be flared. Zphr has infrastructure
- it helps open the whole Paradox.. and upper layers
- CPR update & increases 2P
- some wells will be more oily, some gassy, some helium... zphr can do all

[cashandcard] 17/7/2024 12:10

As ZPHR have full interest here, anything above 100bbls of Condensate per 1mmscfd is a great result.The Delta 28-11 well not too far from this location flowed at a GoR of around 180bbls per 1mmscfd. Initially, more like a very gassy oilfield at those rates. Liquids do dropoff later on as overall production peaks and decline curve kicks in. But in the unconventional space, it's initially all about cost recovery. The quicker drill costs are recovered in the first 3-5months, the quicker they can rinse/repeat.Cash

[zodiac266] 17/7/2024 12:04

I'd guess that adds around 11 pence per share?

[tima441] 17/7/2024 11:57

Shrewd
Mid expectations are for 1500boed initial flow rates. But no consensus on ratio!

Revenue will NOT be so high...
Condensate sells at small premium to Brent but of course transport costs are relevant.

Gas on other hand sells based on Henry Hub.. less transport and lease of processing plant costs etc

Crucial to understand gas revenues. I have no view on ratio... but let's take simple 50:50 and 1500boed.

Say
750boed condensate @ $80 = $22m revs
750boed gas @ $12* = $3m revs
Total = $25m
Still a VERY nice number.

But I've no idea of right expectations on ratio. Could be much more or less gassy.

* my understanding. 1 boe gas = approx 5.8mmbtu gas
1mmbtu gas sells say $2.3
So 1boe gas = say $12

All finger in air. Correct me if wrong.

[waggle] 17/7/2024 11:28

if nil fracking (which the pressure would indicate) then a ball park figure is $10.

[shrewdmole] 17/7/2024 11:19

Does anyone know what the cost of extraction per boe is on this well?

If we hit say 1500 boepd it’s about $44m revenue pa but need to factor in costs if anyone can help.

Tim - what’s the consensus on telegram re flow rates?

[tima441] 17/7/2024 11:04

Telegram group has a poll ... for flowrate and ratio gas:condensate

[paddyfool] 17/7/2024 10:59

I'm bored! Let's have a sweepstake for what we think/hope the flow rate will be.

[cashandcard] 17/7/2024 09:32

It goes without saying, full CPR will take a bit longer to get sign off.Cash

[cashandcard] 17/7/2024 09:31

I would expect an early resource estimate should help to update to these numbers;"Zephyr's flagship asset is an operated lease holding of over 46,000 gross acres located in the Paradox Basin, Utah, 25,000 acres of which has been assessed to hold, net to Zephyr, 2P reserves of 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent ("mmboe"), 2C resources of 34 mmboe and 2U resources 270 mmboe"Cash

[2 solaris] 17/7/2024 09:19

Next week we are likely to hear something.

[cashandcard] 16/7/2024 16:30

This is why they are doing all the tests. Proof of concept and get as much data as possible from this well. The drone footage from the site with continued flaring oozes confidence in what they have. I suspect potential partners would be keen to see this. I look forward to the update when it comes. Its been awhile since an onshore smallcap player was on the cusp of opening up what could be a 'fairway' or mini basin within a known wider basin.Cash

[squiresquire] 16/7/2024 16:03

zphr is being talked about as a long term outperformer worth 1.2 billion market cap. Utterly stunning, we just need this well now to come in with good figures and it really does soom institutions will grab a bit each. Having waited for the last year and from before i am not going to let go until we see a top industry join up for zphr. And i dont think that will take very long at all.

It must be obviousd to all by now this current market is only really interested in CASH generating companies. JAM TOMORROW is out of favour completely. ZPHR is definitely a CASH COW if this well comes in good.

[cashandcard] 16/7/2024 14:28

Saucepan,I second that. Its a statement of his/their conviction in what the company is doing and may achieve.Cash

[waggle] 16/7/2024 14:14

Gervais Williams is a canny manager and supported the 3.5p fund raise big time.

[saucepan] 16/7/2024 14:07

A more-helpful observation, perhaps, is that ZPHR appears to be Premier Miton's fifth largest holding in its UK MicroCap Trust. That is quite a show of faith that value will out in due course.

[cashandcard] 16/7/2024 13:54

Agreed. No fund puts anywhere near 22% in exploration and production companies.Cash

[molatovkid] 16/7/2024 13:34

No offence lads but common sense should have said no fund would put 22% in any company

[obmuj] 16/7/2024 12:20

jack. When I saw it first time after clicking on your link I immediately saw 22% too and I have, supposedly, near perfect (10/10) bionic vision after my refractive lens exchange (RFL) cataract operation. ;)

[jackthecat1] 16/7/2024 12:11

Sincere apologies, my eye sight is going!. Indeed. 2.2% of ZPHR held in the PM micro fund.

[2 solaris] 16/7/2024 11:46

Another little uplift, we need this to go up before results. It shows people have confidence, nothing worse than a flat trading with a huge spike on news.