Zenith Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sea7] 02/10/2017 14:29

m45, when initially drilled produced at varying rates of between 74 and 86 bopd, it steadily declined to 14bopd and then dropped to 1.5bopd in early 2017.

When they said that they could get to 150bopd, I felt they were being overly optimistic and I was more inclined to expect around 25-30bopd. As it came out at 46bopd I was quite happy with that. They went ahead and put in the esp, which is when I thought that if they were going to get 150bopd out of it, it would be not long after this installation. 3bopd extra was less than I expected, however, it should ensure that the well continues to produce steadily for much longer than it may have done under natural pressure.

workovers and esps do not guarantee increases in production, so I am mindful of this in my expectations.

As this well has historically only ever reached 86bopd, then I am not expecting much more than what it is producing now.

It has been a slow job, however, it is successful nonetheless, as it is now at 49bopd instead of 1.5bopd. It will pay for itself soon enough and is generating good revenue for the company.

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 14:28

Wow that was a disaster than, wonder how much they wasted on a ESP, and staff costs.Sea7 I have no idea, still can't listen to the CC as they haven't uploaded it....yet they can take pictures and go on social media.Mismanagement at it best.As far as I am concerned they need to releases a RNS to state the outcome of the ESP tweeking on well45.

[sea7] 02/10/2017 14:20

ravin,

m45 workover was completed, esp installed, put back on production and is producing at 49bopd. They said they felt they could increase production after optimisation.

It is still producing at 49bopd as far as I know and the workover teams have moved on.

[grannyboy] 02/10/2017 14:02

Well they could do with saying they will get 500bopd, then once they've cleaned out the fluid they might end up with a barrel or two and sea7 would be quite pleased seeing has its not produced for years, and so we must be grateful for small mercies...

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 13:04

Cash, exactly the point I was getting to.It has yet to complete a workover, waiting on 45, 195, etc before z-28 is done.Still got the CC to upload?! Lol

[cashandcard] 02/10/2017 12:50

The Zardab wells, whilst flowing at highly economic rates, flowed for a short period. Perhaps too short to determine the EUR and true economics of that field. Having said that, if it flows even a quarter of that number, it will be excellent.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves - they have not said they are going to hit 500bopd with this well.


Cash

[sea7] 02/10/2017 12:45

well ravin..

it could do. It last flowed at 500bopd before becoming blocked with sand many years ago. Logic would dictate that as the well only flowed for a very brief period, that being days and not months or years, then once unblocked, it should restart at the same level as before, as natural reservoir pressure will not have changed much, or it shouldn't have.

They are using upto date techniques and kit. They are expecting high production and high pressure, hence the use of a blow out preventer.

As long as all goes to plan, we could be more than doubling production in a few weeks.

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 12:41

Z-28 to get 500 really?

[kliverpool] 02/10/2017 12:39

Shouldn't be a problem once them 500 barrels a day start flowing out of z28

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 12:26

Cheers sea7.This will need a lot more buys to send it north past 8p

[sea7] 02/10/2017 12:02

the 100k buyer is one of the posters on the lse site. He stated that he has bought his last 300k this morning and completed his buying.

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 11:39

100k buyer out there?

[ravin146] 02/10/2017 11:14

Good to see, any update on well45 esp tweeking?

[sea7] 02/10/2017 11:10

new tweet - rigging up z28

[sea7] 01/10/2017 09:45

no one is saying that they will not. It is a discussion surrounding the fact that this target is still to be reached and is a contractual obligation.

[kliverpool] 01/10/2017 08:10

Why would they not hit the target they still have 11 months and they only need 45 barrels .11vmonths from now we will be close to 1500 barrels

[sea7] 30/9/2017 22:47

if zenith do not hit the target of 465stb/d in the time allowed, then the shares will plummet whilst a decision is made by socar, as to the future of the j/v. They will either see that zenith had a good reason for not being at that level and extend the deadline or if not, they will simply boot zenith off and continue collecting the revenue for themselves and look for someone else to spend out on enhancing the field returns.

It depends greatly upon any reason.

I think that the target is a low one and the company will easily achieve it, however, it is worth keeping in mind, until they do.

[sea7] 30/9/2017 22:43

Azerbaijan - Armenia.

Likely to remain at elevated tension levels.

armed incidents risen in 2017

risk of full blown conflict low, due to balance of power means Russia and turkey would not wish to be drawn into a proxy war with each other.

azerbaijans president has been consolidating his hold over the country after winning the constitutional referendum a year ago. This has extended and expanded his authority considerably.

He has unprecedented control over the country and its institutions. He has made his wife vice president, which means, she steps in if he cannot perform duties, not the prime minister. He has extended the presidential terms of office to seven years from five, which means 2020 for next election. The power of the national assembly has been watered down, which makes opposition a lot harder and more difficult for rivals in his own party.

He is only 55 and is expected to be In power for years to come. The venice commission is not overly impressed by these constitutional changes in the favour of the president and his family's powers.

[pugugly] 30/9/2017 21:49

Just to remind everyone - Sea7 I trust you will not mind me repeating in part as CRITICAL to any investment decision - whether to buy - buy more or dump.

"sea7 28 Sep '17 - 21:33 - 613 of 628 0 0
The real time to start worrying is if they do not get up to 465stb/d within two years of the approval of the plan submitted within 150 days of the effective date of the agreement with socar. (Socar then had up to 60 days to approve the plan or not)

This is a situation where time is a critical component of success. If they do not get to 465stb/d in the time allowed, then they will be in breach of the agreement and SOCAR reserves the right to terminate the agreement.

The effective date was 11th August 2016. They have a minimum of eleven months and probably a maximum of just over a year to be at 465stb/d, or the whole Azerbaijan operation will be in jeopardy."
.
IMO Any indication that they will not hit target within 6 months (not say the 12 MONTH DEADLINE) could well make the shares unsaleable -

OK I know Andrea was still talkng the 1,000 run rate in the conference call but need to revist my notes and refresh memory when up on the web site so as to put odds agaisnt it being actually achieved. Chances ???

Views/comments In particular political risk -

[sea7] 30/9/2017 21:10

"a recording of the call will be made available on the website" is what they said.

When, might be an idea.

[ravin146] 30/9/2017 20:52

Unbelievable, can't even upload a CC...yet alone do a workover.Jking sea7

[sea7] 30/9/2017 17:02

nope not on there as far as I can see

[ravin146] 30/9/2017 16:29

Anyone got link to cc?