Zenith Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sea7] 29/9/2017 14:26

lets hope so eh!!

[cashandcard] 29/9/2017 14:14

sea7,


That could be it. I had a feeling Malcy could be lining it up for 2018 bucket list.


Cash

[sea7] 29/9/2017 13:55

could be that malcy is considering covering zenith afterwards, unless he wanted to much to cover it.

[muddy_40] 29/9/2017 13:30

sea7 I know, but maybe he is waiting for the Zardab well to kick off, as it is pretty high impact well to Zen at the moment.

[sea7] 29/9/2017 13:21

didn't hear anything back after malcy said he was meeting with andrea not that long ago.

[muddy_40] 29/9/2017 13:15

Cash,

If we get more success and the share price does not respond- I will be buying more cause the share price will take care of itself sometime.

I really think people are looking at this and wanting to see progress before buying. It has cheap lifting costs, proven reserves, proven previous production that was left to dwindle due to lack of investment.

Going forward from here for the next 6 months we have 3 bites of the cherry, fitting pumps, perforations and Zardab workovers. We should see a good increase in production. Only one of the 3 I am worried about is Zardab, but hopefully with new technology on completions it should take care of the sand issues. They seem to have a good team on the ground now and they realise that they need bigger equipment to tackle some of these wells. So that is progress for me

Time for patience IMO

PS. Would be good to get Malcy covering this one as people seem to buy on his tips..he is even covering FRR now and that is a dog

[sea7] 29/9/2017 12:45

cash,

divi - no, need the money to support the projects.
buybacks, no, waste of time, to artificially inflate the eps and share price
change of top management - already been done with Mike.
sale process, they have only just got the assets - would be seen as giving up too early.
new business opportunities - they have stated they are keeping their eyes open on this anyway.

As long as they continue to get success at the wells and keep costs under control, this will be reflected in the share price, as long as they do not dilute it too much.

for me it is

continue to increase bopd as per workover program
continue to install esp's as per plan
continue to explore perforating payzones in existing wells.
continue with the preparations for drilling next year

The share price will, eventually take care of itself.

[cashandcard] 29/9/2017 12:39

In the event the WO's continue with decent results, but the share price does not respond or perhaps reacts negatively to BOPD progress (demonstrated in the last few months), what alternatives are there to outing value? This is what I think, in order of preference;

- Pay a Dividend
- Share buybacks
- Change of top management
- Pursue a 'Sale process'
- Pursue new exciting exploration/development assets

Of the above, the first one and second seem most feasible. If they have excess cash, they should join the divi-club, making themselves a rare quantity amongst small oilers. Even if the divi is a tiny (yet very sustainable) 1-2%, it will get them on funds radars. That is what is needed here.

What are your thoughts folks?

Cash

[sea7] 28/9/2017 21:33

The real time to start worrying ravin is if they do not get up to 465stb/d within two years of the approval of the plan submitted within 150 days of the effective date of the agreement with socar. (Socar then had up to 60 days to approve the plan or not)

This is a situation where time is a critical component of success. If they do not get to 465stb/d in the time allowed, then they will be in breach of the agreement and SOCAR reserves the right to terminate the agreement.

The effective date was 11th August 2016. They have a minimum of eleven months and probably a maximum of just over a year to be at 465stb/d, or the whole Azerbaijan operation will be in jeopardy.

[sea7] 28/9/2017 21:24

I see "success" as a multi faceted concept.

You chose to paint a wall in a day and after some rethinking you realised that your initial target was wrong and you told yourself, "it will take three days to do", you complete the job, in three days, you succeeded in the overall job, even if it took longer. Therefore it was a success, despite an earlier setback and an increase in costs. So, what we would end up with is a success, however, with some failings along the way, which expanded the time taken to achieve success, however,did not prevent it.

Unless time is a critical factor in the quantification of success, then it is merely a measurement of the period taken overall and not an essential component of the requirements needed to achieve the successful outcome. Therefore timed targets can move one way or the other and setbacks can be endured, however success can still be, ultimately achieved, irrespective of the measured timeframe taken.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 21:18

I'll repeat and end it like this...They have a plan, new leader, it must now deliver. Or the share price won't react and they will struggle to raise funding. It's acting like a AIM still imo.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 21:16

Ps, that why the share price is not rising!

[sea7] 28/9/2017 21:14

One point I should make.

If this company was much further ahead, pumping a lot more oil, with many successes under its belt and a shining example of how to do it, then the share price would be much higher and I would probably not be invested here by then, as the price to be paid for each share, would most probably be way too expensive in my mind.

I will seek out distressed situations, such as companies having issues, which I believe are surmountable, with share prices at all time lows and good projects suffering from a lack of investment. I like a situation whereby issues are being faced, which have a significant impact on the share price a bit further down the line when resolved.

It does take a lot more effort in the form of research to form an opinion on whether I think the company that I am looking at stands a chance of overcoming the issues that they are facing and whether I think it will translate into a profitable situation for me, however, it can and does generate good returns, when it works out right.

Buying into companies that are in this position does take a bit more nerve and trust in my research, however, I never go all in on these types of play and they only form part of the overall investment strategy that I employ, which will contain other stocks that are not facing issues, yet are undervalued in my opinion.

You say the company is acting like an AIM stock, well, I have over ten years experience in investing into AIM stocks and I know what a casino that market can be.

You are correct, it is behaving like an AIM stock.

They have a realistic chance of real success here. I am patient about it, as I have been with the AIM stocks I invest in.

Yes, I am here to make money, however, I am not under any illusion over timeframes and nor am I expecting miracles. They started out with an inexperienced team, including andrea and paid the price. They have rectified that and are making progress, it will be reflected in the share price soon enough.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 21:13

I rest my case, sea7 MPYou just stated: "achieved success in one form or another"Success is a singular form, one that is deceived at the onset.If I want to paint a wall in a day, and I paint a wall in a day. I've succeeded.If I want to paint another wall in a day, and I accidentally paint it the wrong colour and realise it needs polyfiller to cover dents, needs another undercoat, and final paint, and I paint it in three days time, and it costs triple the budget.Is that success or failure?!It's failure, because the original target was for it to be painted AND in a single day. You can't say yes we did paint it at the end of the day, ignoring the fact I failed on the timescale and budget.Should have got the pros in, in hindsight....sorry for the pathetic analogy, but you get my drift!

[sea7] 28/9/2017 20:49

very funny ravin- head of comms for andrea - only if I was going to be paid for it!!

it was me who made the first comments on the lse board about m195 not being as big as expected. After the CC, I read between the lines of Andrea's comments during the call and made my assumptions about what he was trying not to say about m195. Hence the posts. You will see them there if you look!!!

They have struggled with M195 that is true.
They reckoned on getting 150 bopd out of m45, as yet they haven't, however, it should not be overlooked, that they achieved...

14 bopd increases from well maintenance programs
15 bopd from m66 which was at zero - production subsequently increased to 50bopd
70 bopd from c26 which was at zero bopd
49 bopd from m45 which was at 1.5bopd

You state " a couple of successful wells that were practically dead"

ravin, that is what the company is all about at this stage, it is a rehabilitation programme. Nothing more.

from the rns earlier this year..

It is clear that there is a vast amount of oil under the surface in the Muradkhanli field. It should, however, also be underlined that well workovers on old Soviet wells will deliver only progressive production increases as opposed to the exceptional flow rates made possible by successfully drilling new wells.  As stated in previous announcements, we intend to begin drilling activities in 2018.

..............

You state " so far many have failed"

please list them. They have not failed at any wells, all have achieved success in one form or another, the jury is still out on m195 I know that, however, until we get oil or they abandon it, then it cannot be classed as a failure yet.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 20:30

Sea7 MP - head of communications for AC lol............IMO,As I said, imo, the current BoD, so far, have failed, results and creating/holding shareholder value.Sea7 no disrespect, I understand what you are trying to do and the agenda behind it. It won't work, believe me.Don't get to attached to the emotional side, admiring the BoD, AC etc.You are here, I assume to make money.So far many have failed, and so have the BoD.A couple of successful wells which were practically dead, though relatively easy jobs succeeded, but that been between many issues. The toughest wells they could succeed in a timely manner.It doesn't give a good impression on SH and markets for the main drilling next year.Rather than discussing well results, ambiguity of RNS, lies etc...many shareholders here were confused and baffled in team A, B, Or team X. Neither were experienced enough. I would love to know what the costs are, won't be released I guess. If well 195 was not worth it, cost wise after the first issue it should have been plugged and moved on. Of what I hear from the LSE board, on comments of the CC, well195 may not be the biggy they expected.They have a plan, new leader, it must now deliver. Or the share price won't react and they will struggle to raise funding. It's acting like a AIM still imo.Gla, imho, hope the next news it positive and the share price trend rises!

[sea7] 28/9/2017 17:33

if they had failed then they would not have had the successes that they have had. They have made mistakes and put solutions forward and are implementing them.

my comment was not inappropriate as the poster stated that they had sold as they were fed up with the bs from andrea as they put it.

the poster said that they had sold their 34k plus shares. Putting a figure like that and the fact that a trade went through at 7.09 for 34803 shares around the same time would indicate that this was the posters trade.

Selling at 7.09p, when the all time low in the stock was 6.75p on the bid and all buys were around 6.98 as the lowest prices, then allowing for brokers fees, there would at best, be a few quid profit.

I took the view that, in all probability the poster booked a loss and I showed compassion by saying that I hoped that he did not take too much of a loss.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 16:41

Btw yet to hear this CC, waiting for their IT team to upload it.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 16:39

Not sure where that response was in the back off...I just agreed with a view, that your comment to the earlier poster that sold today, is that he/she made a loss. There are many here still in profit so an inappropriate comment imo.Imo, the current BoD has failed so far, fact and the share price shows this.I respect your view, but I believe it has failed.

[sea7] 28/9/2017 16:10

Ravin,

I look at the project without rose tinted specs on and have realistic expectations. I allow for delays and setbacks. I do not take too much notice of any sugar coating the CEO's put on their companies in presentations and rns's.

I buy where I see value and if the stock gets cheaper I like it more.

I do not put timeframes on my holdings.

The BOD have made mistakes, however, they have had successes as well, such as c26 which was at zero bopd and is now at 70bopd, m45 despite the optimistic expectation is at 49bopd, whereas it was at 1.5bopd.

For the record ravin my average here is 8p.

When I entered this stock for the first time earlier this year, as the price dropped below 9p, my intention was to hold until end march next year, when the 1000bopd target is meant to have been achieved.

I will be re-assessing then unless they achieve that target earlier.

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 13:50

Btw alamaison5, odd time to sell.A lot of news 'due' to come if their plan work out.A dozen or so wells will have ESPs installed. It can't find any more.It must deliver, so will pick their best wells now.1000bopd target still confirmed by the company- according to LSE posters, not listened to CC yet myself

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 13:42

*no more funding...

[ravin146] 28/9/2017 13:36

Granny, agree that sea7 you seem very defensive of the BoD.So far the BoD have FAILED, fact.Not everyone is at loss like you sea7, I made decent amount on the rise up to 12ish p.Luckily still positive here, taking into consideration the current lots' loss.Could sell today but I think it has a chance to rise, with more funding allowed now and well news on a dozen or so workovers.I have yet to listen to the CC, not sure if recording on website.