Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[bpc10] 17/11/2014 15:43

No rush here, wait for 3p in a few months IMO

[pugugly] 17/11/2014 14:54

leecoyote:- OK Edison are suggesting an opex (Stage 1) of of $30 not so far off my $32 if you allow for contingencies - in fact my $32 may be on the low side .

Capital cost Edison estimate of $167 tonne but this needs amortising over production and debt costs adding "and the lack of clarity on a funding solution" again from Edison so i think I will stick with my back of envelope calcualtions.

SP has fallen from 19.38p on 19th May - the date of the Edison reseearch. OK mostly due to the fall in the price of IO plus (I suspect) doubts over funding and current over supply of IO and falling prices PLUS higher relative shipping costs to China from Africa compared to Aussi land

[phowdo] 17/11/2014 14:54

Priced liked an option now.

[declan2] 17/11/2014 14:50

Bang, and down it goes. Al holders are now officially underwater :(

[andrbea] 14/11/2014 19:28

all iron ore stocks suffering (ami, bao, zioc). Iron ore glut in the world.

[yupawiese2010] 14/11/2014 19:23

Investec 9p target price has now been reached, personally im expecting the project to be mothballed.

[leecoyote] 12/11/2014 23:29

Pug - give Andrew Trahar the IR head at ZIOC a call or go onto the Edison website to see the real costs and you'll see how your back of envelope calcs are precisely that, and wrong.

[pugugly] 11/11/2014 20:11

leecoyote:_ It all depends on current prices paid for high grade IO in the ground and capital investment required to produce and deliver to port.

The last figures suggest all up cash costs fOB of $32 per tonne and initial capital costs of $2.2 billion - No mention of sustaining capital -

Back of an envelope calculations suggest an all up cost of $60+ to $75 per ton subject to interest rate on the debt and amortisation and repayment of borrowings (note figures very rough and ready Please do not rely on them) but sufficiently robust for me to need to crunch in far greater detail befor considering an investmetn -

IO in the ground is just rock (of minimal value0 unless can be extracted and sold at a reasonable profit which for me has to be at least 12%-15% minimum after all costs (imo etc)

[leecoyote] 11/11/2014 19:41

I guess that's what makes a market.
Personally I dont think u get many opportunities to buy billions of NPV for low double digit millions at a cycle low in the mining sphere.
IF they get the equity and debt side put together I think one could be looking at a 10 or 20 bagger here.

[pugugly] 11/11/2014 19:35

leecoyote: Citi certainly see no short term rise likey - With both Rio and Vale ramping up production into an over supplied market I strongly believe that we could be in for at least a decade of low prices.

[leecoyote] 11/11/2014 19:32

And if IO prices rise PU? ZIOC is probably the best cost positioned IO offering globally.

Have you spoken with IR? Could be equity consortia in place by year end imo.

[pugugly] 11/11/2014 19:29

Iron ore prices will plummet to less than $60 a metric ton next year as global supply increases and demand remains weak, according to Citigroup Inc., which slashed its quarterly forecasts for 2015 by as much as 23 percent.



If correct ZIOC may note be an attractive development for at least teh medium future. An over supply or IO and what appears to be a static or weakening demand

That is why (imo) Declan2 could well be right - cash could evaporate until exhausted.

Declaration:- I used to hold but sold out at 19p last year for a small profit. Had been looking to get back in but with a continuously falling price for IO have now put very much on the back burner.

OK possiblity of a purchase by the chinese but there are a number of developed mines curretly with debt problems that might be cheaper and certainly faster into production than a green field site.

[leecoyote] 11/11/2014 18:25

Declan - with net cash of just below the stock price and a nominal cash burn, precisely how do you see that occurring..?

[declan2] 11/11/2014 18:23

Back to the lows, could well go the of LOND and BZM

[aishah] 11/11/2014 13:48

Approaching Investec target price of 9p.

[tyler90] 05/11/2014 06:46

The current market cap. is ridiculously low and so despite a possible dilution there is significant upside even at present iron ore prices - higher iron ore prices means .....$$$!

[kitcomet] 04/11/2014 22:15

More heavy buys - these guys aren't worried about any massive dilution happening soon

[gta5] 04/11/2014 12:42

....ticktackticktack....Boom?

[tyler90] 03/11/2014 12:44

The 100k is a buy. This one is getting ready for take-off. IMHO & DYOR

[tyler90] 30/10/2014 15:49

"One important element that was made public in the most recent analyst note however is that the company is currently taking to a variety of equity participants in the project and there is a decent likelihood of news on this being concluded before the year is out."So expect a re-rating if the news does break before the turn of the year.All IMHO and DYOR

[essential] 29/10/2014 16:12

Looking like this could pop higher....

[laserdisc] 21/10/2014 19:17

i have this my watchlist i prev sold out at around 19p may look to get back in if it dips further

MY EST PRICE IRON ORE
$80 2015
From 2016, the market balance is expected to tighten as China’s real estate sector begins to recover and a prolonged period of oversupply comes to an end through the closure of high-cost operations.

[andrbea] 21/10/2014 19:08

new article on zioc

Their assumptions work on a 10% discount rate and a long term $90/tonne iron ore price. If one is even more conservative and assumes an $80/tonne IO price and a discount rate of 12.5% then the equity value that pops out is $619m (highlighted green square). Based on current FX rates this equates to circa £400m. The current market cap of ZIOC is just over £37m. That is quite a buffer zone in our opinion. Should iron ore prices actually recover back over $100/t then the NPV and uplift element to the ZIOC equity should the project complete becomes eye watering.

hxxp://www.-.com/blog/zanaga-iron-ore-revisited-awaiting-the-catalyst-of-the-proje.html

[yupawiese2010] 21/10/2014 18:42

Iron ore prices to remain depressed.