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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited | ZIOC | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 8.04 | 08:00:19 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.04 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 27/1/2025 00:31 by extrader Could be.Or after hours. Or later. ZIOC may have choreographed but probably/hopefully has a lot of egos to deal with, who may have a mind/limitations/pri At some point, they'll have to firm up time and venue for meeting. If it's O2 or ExCel, that might be a hint... GLA |
Posted at 14/1/2025 18:03 by extrader See this explanation ex MinorMiner, which I'm not qualified to assess, but sounds plausible :My hunch is that a ZIOC bull bought a 'call option' fully expecting transformational news. Very reasonable too given all the clues we have had from the firm. The seller of the option would have had the reverse exposure, standing to lose on an share price surge. However what the seller had was insight as to where sell orders existed (manifesting as resistance on the charts) and I venture that this would have been residual stock from the 5.25p placing in July. Thus the seller was prepared to gamble that the premium he received and sight of the sells orders made it a reason bet to accept. However..... The positivity was such that the share price went up through a series of resistance levels where sells may have been clustered , i.e. 7p then 8p and the big one at 10p. As it did so the option seller would have been forced to hedge his upside risk, i.e. to buy shares. Thus we saw repeated waves of buying as each level was breached. Things took an unexpected turn on Tuesday when UK interest rates (via Gilt yields) exploded higher. This happened just as we hit 12p. Sentiment immediately turned through 180° and we got Risk Off. The Brokers quickly turned defensive, probably under orders from their in-house risk managers. ZIOC started to fall back. As it did so the option seller, who had bought shares as upside protection (his hedge) no longer needed them and he had to sell them back to the market. This sent the market lower which squeezed out day traders and weaker hands but, as it did so, the option seller was then forced to then sell more of his hedges bought on the way up. I could see this in the waves of trades and orders being placed and filled via L2. We got a cascade of sells. The upshot of all this is that we ended back at the level we started from - 8p. This has left the market confounded, unsurprisingly, about where all the positivity went. The answer is that it is still there and the fundamentals and prospects remain extraordinarily good. We've just had a lesson in how illiquid stocks on AIM can work. NAI, DYOR etc etc. HTH |
Posted at 12/1/2025 21:38 by extrader V droll! ;->To be fair to AT, who's been holding the fort and flying the flag almost from IPO days in a challenging environment, he uncharacteristically says specifically per the last Proactive interview - after commending PI's for their patience - that they should expect 'newsflow in the New Year' as milestones are met. There've been a lot of detours and hiccups along the way (not many of ZIOC's doing, IMO), but the stars do finally seem to be aligning. If/when things start to firm up, no doubt new (and perhaps unforeseen/ unforeseeable) 'stuff' will emerge. So it's by no means a racing certainty. The 2 x ZIOC boards on lse discuss things in a relatively balanced way, AFAICS.... But then again maybe ' I would say that, wouldn't I'? ;_> ATB |
Posted at 06/1/2025 21:04 by extrader Hi HighlyGeared,.."All ducks now lined up, and should go “ballisticR With all respect to your friend, I don't think he (or the market) have yet fully joined the dots. (1) ZIOC (and GLEN, successor to Xstrata) have done all their investor presentations and internal corporate dealings on the basis that they would settle on an NPV-based valuation, with clearly-defined assumptions. As an illustration, this from page 6 of the IPO Admission Document : .."Within 90 days of completion of a BFS, Xstrata has a right to acquire the Company’s remaining 49.99 per cent. interest in Jumelles BVI and the Zanaga Project,at a price based on net present value, as determined in accordance with the Xstrata Transaction documents..." On the previous page, the first 'key strength' of the Offering is ..'large scale iron ore resource with significant upside potential;' (2) GLEN has a corporate history of holding out for an NPV benchmark whenever it disposes of an asset, indeed this hard-nosed attitude may have contributed to the delay in getting to where we are now (along with management change; rise in premium for 'green ore'; East West resource grabs; Saudi's Vision 2030 economic diversification; etc, etc). (3) The current NPV for Phase 1 (12 mtpa) is USD 3.68 Billion and for Phase 2 ( another 18mtpa) another USD 3.68 billion, total combined NPV of USD 7.36 billion. (4) Less than 1/3rd of the Zanaga Resource has been proved to JORC Reserve confidence levels (on which NPVs are based). From the last Nov 23 presentation.."Only 27km of the 47km orebody length has been drilled to date... Orebody supports >30 year mine life, even at 60Mtpa production scale..." It seems reasonable to conclude that an eventual exit price based on NPV USD 7.36 billion could turn out to be a significant understatement. Whatever. Even at USD 7.36 billion and 676 m shares in issue and only abt 7 m in warrants, options etc outstanding, we'd be looking potentially at USD 10.75/ some £ 8.60 per share. Or over 80x the current s/p... Lots could go wrong, of course, but that's quite some risk/reward ratio. The Chinese Foreign Minister arrives in C-B tomorrow. During his 2 day visit, he may well sign off on Sounda Dam, a 'critical infrastructure' 600MW project costed at USD 9.4 billion for which China Overseas Holding signed an MoU a few months back, in the wake of the FOCAC (African leaders') summit in Beijing. This would be another milestone in the newsflow that ZIOC has told the market to expect in the run-up to the Corporate Update and London Investor Event to be held Feb 11th. All pretty factual stuff, AFAICS. As ever, NAI, DYOR etc etc. The 2 x lse ZIOC boards have further info. ATB |
Posted at 03/1/2025 21:23 by extrader Somebody asked : Why on earth issue an 'in-between' RNS - at 1455, not 0700 -to announce a meetup in 5 weeks' time...??Best answer so far : Ok. I’ve been out for a long frosty sunny walk with my dog. We have analysed the situation. Conclusion is that ZIOC themselves are the actor looking to create pressure. Perhaps to try to flush out any counter-proposal(s) lurking in the undergrowth. It looks like a way of creating competitive tension. There are times when deadlines are useful. Whether real or not it’s worth trying… So my best guess is that ZIOC have they SOMETHING ready to go, but are hopeful that it might be improved upon. They are trying to force someone’s hand by giving exaggerated notice that they’ll go with what they have on Feb 11th. If that someone wants to play, they need to do so ahead of Feb 11th. My best guess only - DYOR. Hat tip to StarBright...who (or maybe it's his dog) seems to understand these things. GLA |
Posted at 03/1/2025 16:01 by highly geared Extrader, hope you don’t mind me reposting your 19 December post (that articulates potential share price upsides):From t'other place. NAI, DYOR, etc etc. Incorporates input and feedback re a possible 'deal' scenario, where a Strategic(s) bought into the Project (50%), creating the wherewithal for ZIOC to fund its share of Stage 1; pay out surplus as a Special Dividend ; and still retain an economic interest in Stage 2 and other potential upside. If Trahar's indicated timeline runs to plan, the next few months could be very interesting. .."Reworking the numbers for a potential Special Dividend post 50% sale to a Strategic, based on Stage 1 NPV, I arrive at £ 1.48 per share (scenario 1) or £ 1.37 (scenario 2) , based on : (a) likelihood of a 30/70 or 40/60 equity : debt finance structure, respectively; (b) deduction of 10% to account for C-B's MIN 10% 'free carry'; (c) deduction of $97m , being simple 10% contingency of capex share; (d) FX @ 1.27 (e) shares in issue 675m. As follows : (1) Stage 1 NPV $ 3.68 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 1.84 billion; (2)@ 90% (C-B) = $ 3.31 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 1.656 billion; (3) capex Stage 1 = $ 1.94 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 970 million; (4) simple 10% contingency = $ 97 million; (5) [ZIOC commitment @ 30% cash = $ 291 million; commitment @ 40% cash = $ 388 million] (6) net* cash to ZIOC (2)-[(4)+(5)] = $ 1,268 million @ 30% OR $ 1,171million @ 40%. (7) @1.27 = £ 998 million OR £ 922 million..... (8) with 675m shares = £ 1.48 per share OR £ 1.37 per share. Thoughts, in no particular order (assuming I've got the maths/assumptions right): (1) £ 1.48p is tantalisingly close to the IPO price of £ 1.56p; see (2). (2) * The C-B 'free carry' deduction/cost arises as project progresses, it isn't an up-front outlay. There's a case for arguing buyer (s) should pay NPV 1 ' nearly gross', not 'net of'. (3) There's no obvious NEED on the seller's side - other than perhaps GLEN's wish(?) - to sell down as much as 50% : IF debt finance is available, there appears to be a sufficient cushion that would allow ZIOC to offer credibly to sell a smaller %age ....which would strengthen Elphick's hand if - conversely - he secretly wanted to encourage a 'full takeout premium'. 'Win, win?' E & OE, comments invited" GLA |
Posted at 02/1/2025 16:39 by highly geared Meaningful news approaching.Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce that the Company intends to provide an update to shareholders on the Company's strategic partner process whilst also providing further information on the Zanaga Iron Ore Project's development plans. As a result of the planned corporate update the Company will be hosting an event in London on Tuesday 11 February 2025 to provide a briefing to its shareholders (the "Investor Event"). More detailed information on the Investor Event will be announced shortly. |
Posted at 19/12/2024 22:15 by extrader From t'other place.NAI, DYOR, etc etc. Incorporates input and feedback re a possible 'deal' scenario, where a Strategic(s) bought into the Project (50%), creating the wherewithal for ZIOC to fund its share of Stage 1; pay out surplus as a Special Dividend ; and still retain an economic interest in Stage 2 and other potential upside. If Trahar's indicated timeline runs to plan, the next few months could be very interesting. .."Reworking the numbers for a potential Special Dividend post 50% sale to a Strategic, based on Stage 1 NPV, I arrive at £ 1.48 per share (scenario 1) or £ 1.37 (scenario 2) , based on : (a) likelihood of a 30/70 or 40/60 equity : debt finance structure, respectively; (b) deduction of 10% to account for C-B's MIN 10% 'free carry'; (c) deduction of $97m , being simple 10% contingency of capex share; (d) FX @ 1.27 (e) shares in issue 675m. As follows : (1) Stage 1 NPV $ 3.68 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 1.84 billion; (2)@ 90% (C-B) = $ 3.31 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 1.656 billion; (3) capex Stage 1 = $ 1.94 billion, ZIOC 50% share = $ 970 million; (4) simple 10% contingency = $ 97 million; (5) [ZIOC commitment @ 30% cash = $ 291 million; commitment @ 40% cash = $ 388 million] (6) net* cash to ZIOC (2)-[(4)+(5)] = $ 1,268 million @ 30% OR $ 1,171million @ 40%. (7) @1.27 = £ 998 million OR £ 922 million..... (8) with 675m shares = £ 1.48 per share OR £ 1.37 per share. Thoughts, in no particular order (assuming I've got the maths/assumptions right): (1) £ 1.48p is tantalisingly close to the IPO price of £ 1.56p; see (2). (2) * The C-B 'free carry' deduction/cost arises as project progresses, it isn't an up-front outlay. There's a case for arguing buyer (s) should pay NPV 1 ' nearly gross', not 'net of'. (3) There's no obvious NEED on the seller's side - other than perhaps GLEN's wish(?) - to sell down as much as 50% : IF debt finance is available, there appears to be a sufficient cushion that would allow ZIOC to offer credibly to sell a smaller %age ....which would strengthen Elphick's hand if - conversely - he secretly wanted to encourage a 'full takeout premium'. 'Win, win?' E & OE, comments invited" GLA |
Posted at 15/12/2023 11:00 by extrader Top quality post from Jiving elsewhere..."CEO. Marty’s LinkedIn states he was appointed as CEO in November, so he might have been in situ up to 6 weeks already. Noteworthy that the news was released on 14 December & not when it seems to have actually occurred in November. Is Elphick preparing for a week of news, that has been held back as it was before last year's AGM? Board. A new CEO at such a critical time should be immediately be on the BOD. I expect he will be soon, but we might be waiting for a different BOD with at least one representative from the new strategic investor & possibly one less Glencore director. At present the agreement with Glencore as set out in RNS of 23.11.22 is that provided Glen hold 25% or more they get 2 BOD seats; between 10-25% they get 1 seat; under 10% none. If Glen sell part or all of their ZIOC holding to one or more strategic investors their representation may change to reflect their lower %. JV vs Buyout. The appointment of a CEO could indicate that the project is proceeding as a JV & we should not therefore expect a buyout bid - unless perhaps a competing, losing strategic investor should decide to make one. Structure. The Glencore transaction last year concentrated ownership of the Zanaga holding company Jumelles, 100% in ZIOC. It was always possible that strategic investor (s) would take a direct stake in Jumelles - ie an unlisted stake for a fixed price paid to ZIOC based around NPV. Leaving ZIOC with the remainder of Jumelles (a bit like the pre 2022 ZIOC arrangement with Glen). But now it seems possible, even likely, that strategic investors will join the project via ZIOC share transactions - secondary, primary or both. Secondary/Primary. Potentially strategic investors could enter the project via a secondary purchase of all or part of Glencore’s stake. This would be mean all the monies passing to Glencore and not ZIOC & we would suffer no dilution. The BOD at the AGM is seeking authority to issue 20% or 126.6m new primary shares (with no pre-emptive rights) to a shareholder (s). This primary transaction would involve both funds flowing into the company & of course dilution. It is quite possible a strategic investor (s) would undertake both transactions - getting say, a 40% stake via a secondary purchase of 20+% from Glencore and a 20% primary issue from ZIOC. Price. The last 13 months of negotiations & particularly the decision to seek new estimates from the Chinese EPC partner suggests to me there could have been prolonged haggling over terms & particularly pricing with strategic investor (s). An ‘NPV based share price’ for a secondary/primary transaction would be substantially higher than the current share price. The 2019 Presentation (P20 graph) gave the crucial NPV estimates for Stage 1 @ 12m & Stage 1+ 2 @ 30m outputs based on the 2014 FS & a 65% Fe concentrate price at $110. The Stage 1, 12m NPV was just over $2b & the Stage 1+2, 30m NPV was just under $4b. The lower Chinese EPC costings & favourable changes in the iron ore market will have changed those estimates significantly upwards. Of course even if all parties agree on an NPV a strategic investor can still demand a discount to NPV. An NPV based share price. To use very simple approximations (key variables apart from NPV being FX & ZIOC share count). But currently a $1b NPV equates approx to a share price of 125p. So the old range of NPV as above from $2-4b would mean a 250-500p NPV based share price. Optimistically taking a 500p NPV based share price, a primary sale of 126.6m shares would net ZIOC £633m or $808m at todays FX. Gearing. The 2014 estimate of $2.2b was to have been funded by a mixture of equity and debt/project finance. Edison in their research report in 2014 suggested the proportions: “We believe that the overall equity cheque will be US$0.8-1.0bn, with the remaining funds coming in the form of infrastructure and EPCM related debt such as export credit financing. The company expects to source credit finance from multiple jurisdictions on attractive terms that normally pertain to infrastructure backed funding.“ 99 in a post 13.12.23 suggested the equity:debt/project finance might be even more favourable ie needing less equity finance! Quote from 99: "With a Chinese builder you probably will get 70% of the build financed by Chinese banks, then you need someone to put up the remaining 30% in return for shares in the project (The Strategic Partner)" With significantly lower costings expected from the 2023 Chinese EPC it is likely the equity component for Stage 1 @12mtpa would be at or lower than the $800m suggested by Edison. In conclusion, if ZIOC/Glen are able to find a strategic investor (s) willing to pay an NPV based share price of £5 (Zanaga NPV of $4b), the sale of the 20% primary stake would generate sufficient equity capital to finance Stage 1 of the project, the balance coming from debt/project finance....." NAI, DYOR GLA |
Posted at 23/11/2022 12:23 by bcape RNS Number : 2812HZanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd 23 November 2022 This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. Upon publication of this announcement, such information is now considered to be in the public domain. 23 November 2022 PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF GLENCORE'S SHAREHOLDING IN THE ZANAGA IRON ORE PROJECT Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce that an agreement has been reached with Glencore Projects, for the acquisition of Glencore Projects' controlling shareholding in the Project, located in the Republic of Congo through the purchase of Glencore Projects' 50% plus one share interest in Jumelles, an entity which indirectly holds the benefit of the Project's mining licence, for a minority shareholding in ZIOC. ZIOC and MPD, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Jumelles which holds the benefit of the Project's mining licence, have also entered into a Marketing Agreement with Glencore International, which will take effect immediately prior to Completion, for the sale and purchase of all future iron ore production from the Project or any other of their or their Affiliates' assets using similar infrastructure in the Republic of Congo. Highlights · Proposed acquisition by ZIOC of Glencore Projects' controlling shareholding in Jumelles, indirect owner of the Project o Subject to ZIOC shareholder approval, the Acquisition will be concluded through the issuance of 286,340,379 new Shares to Glencore Projects, which are expected to represent a shareholding of 48.26% in ZIOC on Completion. o Relationship Agreement to be entered into between Glencore Projects and ZIOC with effect from Completion to ensure that the Company can carry on its business independently of Glencore Projects. o Glencore Projects will have the right with effect from Completion to appoint two non-executive directors to the Board of ZIOC. o Glencore Projects has agreed that it will not dispose of any of the Consideration Shares in the Company in the six months following Admission without the consent of the Company (not to be unreasonably withheld or delayed) other than in certain limited circumstances and to comply with orderly market provisions in the following six months. · Marketing Agreement entered into between Glencore International, the Company and MPD which will take effect immediately prior to Completion o Life-of-mine marketing agreement granting Glencore International the exclusive marketing right for all iron ore conforming to certain specifications produced by MPD, ZIOC or their respective Affiliates from the Project or in the Republic of Congo using similar infrastructure that is not subject to existing sales arrangements. o Agreement by Glencore Projects to purchase from MPD or the Company the Product, or sell the Product on behalf of the Company on arm's length terms. o Glencore International to be entitled to receive a marketing fee in accordance with the detailed provisions of the Marketing Agreement. · Funding agreement o In order to fund the Project's continuing work programme and budget, as well as the working capital requirements of ZIOC, until 31 December 2023, Glencore Projects has agreed to amend the terms of the Loan Agreement as follows: § increase in loan quantum from US$1.2 million to US$1.8 million; § extension of loan repayment date to 31 December 2023. § Jumelles may utilise up to US$200,000 of the loan facility to advance loans to ZIOC to fund its working capital. · General Meeting o A notice of a general meeting to be convened for on or around 13 December 2022 will be sent to Shareholders shortly to seek authority for the directors to: (i) issue 286,340,379 Shares pursuant to the Acquisition; and (ii) not require Glencore Projects to make a takeover offer in accordance with Regulation 33 of the Articles in connection with the Acquisition. Clifford Elphick, Non-Executive Chairman of ZIOC, commented: "The acquisition of Glencore Projects' shareholding in the Project is a key milestone for ZIOC's shareholders, demonstrating to third party investors that the Project is now represented by a single entity and management strategy. The Acquisition is value accretive to Shareholders and increases effective equity ownership of the Project by existing Shareholders, enhancing their look-through ownership of the Project and securing control of the Project without paying any premium for such interest. Furthermore, entering into the Marketing Agreement with Glencore International now provides comfort to investors and financiers that the Project's future production is underpinned by one of the largest iron ore traders globally." For further information, please contact: Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited Corporate Development and Andrew Trahar Investor Relations Manager +44 20 7399 1105 Liberum Capital Limited Nominated Adviser, Financial Scott Mathieson, Edward Thomas Adviser and Corporate Broker +44 20 3100 2000 About us: Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM ticker: ZIOC) is the owner of 50% less one share in the Zanaga Iron Ore Project based in the Republic of Congo through its investment in its associate Jumelles Limited. The Zanaga Iron Ore Project is one of the largest iron ore deposits in Africa and has the potential to become a world-class iron ore producer. General All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this announcement, including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations or statements relating to expectations in relation to dividends or any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words "targets", "believes", "expects", "aims", "intends", "plans", "will", "may", "anticipates", "would", "could" or similar expressions or the negative thereof, are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Company's control that could cause the actual results, performance, achievements of or dividends paid by the Company to be materially different from actual results, performance or achievements, or dividend payments expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's net asset value, present and future business strategies and income flows and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this announcement. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard thereto, any new information or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based, unless required to do so by law or any appropriate regulatory authority. Shareholders should read the risk factors set out in the Company's annual report and accounts that could affect the Company's future performance and the industry in which it operates. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events described in the forward-looking statements in this announcement may not occur. |
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