Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[nobilis] 02/12/2019 10:08

Yes US acquisition very likely imminent. Immediately earnings accretive as will be funded out of cash

[talygarn tom] 02/12/2019 09:59

Hi Shaun, I'd like to say it's good to have you back on here but under the circumstances perhaps not. I posted this on LSE recently. Do you think we this is where they could be heading under Stuart Simms?

"I have a very different thought process on where XLM might be heading. Ory and Inbal were very experienced with regards to sports betting, so why would the company move them if this was the future direction? The question I am asking is what does Stuart Simms bring to the table that Ory didn't? My suspicion is that the emphasis is going forward may more weighted to personal finance/banking. Stuart pulled of a signifcant deal with Wells Fargo whilst at Ratkunen. (scroll down here) hxxps://rakutenmarketing.com/channels/affiliate/ . Thoughts?"

[km85] 29/11/2019 12:12

Through all my years of investing what I found is that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The real big money was made in the waiting.

-- Jessie Livermore

[dr biotech] 29/11/2019 11:37

Thats fair enough. Hope you have found another position.

I'd never hold a share because of the current price being above or below where I bought it. I'm guessing your holding is the latter where most people tend to hold as its emotionally harder to take a loss rather than a profit. I read a good article once where it said you should mentally sell everything and then ask yourself whether you'd buy everything back. If not then you should make some changes (obviously within reason). The only reason ever to hold a share is to think it will be good value. Holding in hope of a recovery isn't a good enough reason IMO (unless you need to crystalize a loss against other gains for tax purposes).

Must admit I bought these on more of a whim than any proper research, which is counter to my normal modus operandi. I've decided to buy three stocks with little research, and 3 where I have looked a little deeper into them (hardly scientific I know) and will see over a year which does better. I'm guess my random ones will win.

[oneillshaun] 29/11/2019 11:18

nobilis - I am not going to discuss what happened with XL on a public forum.

[nobilis] 29/11/2019 11:10

So did they fire you then shaun?


I hear there is a US acquisition to be unveiled. Spend the 38 million they hold on deposit

[oneillshaun] 29/11/2019 11:07

joe moat - yes i am simple reason is because of my average price.

[eagle eye] 29/11/2019 11:00

oneillshaun,
A very informative post. Thank you.

[joe moat] 29/11/2019 10:57

THKS Shaun for the info.
May i ask you if you are still an holder
THKS

[oneillshaun] 29/11/2019 08:14

The Swedish regulation has killed the market for affiliates and operators, the main issue is the self exclusion list if you exclude from one site you are blocked from all licensed casinos in Sweden, and the fact that you can not do anything to retain the players simple means the player value is now horrible and it was once super high.

Every affiliate has been hit hard in Sweden and now the affiliate can no longer PPC on licensed swedish casino so this will further hit profits.

The US will be good but i honestly would not expect significant revenues in 2020 it takes a long time for any sites to start ranking on valuable key words and as XL Media is completely unknown in the US the first round of deals they have with the brands will be pretty low, once they start sending decent volumes they can push a bit.

I would love to see Stuart come to the market in January hit the numbers and tell us that XL is launching in new verticals and reducing the gaming foot print.

[tvh123] 28/11/2019 23:42

As I understand it, Sweden had a monopolised gambling market that was closed to foreign operators which led to offshore operators ignoring gaming regulations and flooding the market with illegal gambling websites. Newly introduced regulations removed the state run gambling monopoly and opened the market to offshore gaming operators (c.100 reportedly applied for a Swedish gaming license) with tougher regulations/monitoring. This will naturally have impacted conversion rates for XLM in the short-term, and there is an open question as to how long a recovery will take.

Finland may or may not opt to follow the same route as Sweden (similar market dynamics) - again, the short-term impact on XLMedia could be severe depending on how far reaching any changes are, but it seems like Finland are currently playing a waiting game to see how the recent Swedish changes affect the market going forward.

Therefore, a cash adjusted PE of c.7 seems fair until we have more clarity on both the future of the scandinavian market and the very significant US opportunity in gambling. The pivot to Personal Finance was well timed - and I would expect this to be the primary focus over the next few years under Stuart.

Would appreciate your perspectives Shaun (without divulging anything non-public)

[onjohn] 28/11/2019 18:10

nice move up

[oneillshaun] 28/11/2019 17:12

Dr Biotech, regulation could destroy the gaming side of XL don't get me wrong there will always make money but it is getting harder and harder we all know that Sweden has hurt them, if Finland regulates it will be a killer.

The new CEO needs to look other verticals ASAP.

[dr biotech] 28/11/2019 08:38

I’ve picked up a few of these recently. Makes less than 1% but could be a interesting long term play if they can get in as an early mover as markets open, although there is also the risk of over regulation.

Whilst I enjoy the occasional punt, I must admit that I think,it’s become too normalised, can’t watch a sports event without multiple betting adverts. So whilst it would cost me here I’m not against more regulation.

[oneillshaun] 27/11/2019 15:32

nofool - every reason for it to be below 65p, three profit warnings massive change of senior management, uncertainty if XL will hit the next set of numbers....

More reasons for this to be at this price than 70p plus.

[nofool] 27/11/2019 11:14

No reason for it to be below 65p either.

[oneillshaun] 26/11/2019 12:42

No reason for XL media to be above 70p until the next update, unless there is some M&A news......

[nobilis] 23/11/2019 17:11

With this in mind, we took these ideas and screened AIM to see which companies passed the tests.

The rules we used included:

Companies in the top 20% of the market based on their % age of free cash flow to sales.
A minimum average 10% return on capital employed and return on equity over five years.
Companies producing above average operating margins in their respective sectors over five years.



Nice to see XLM passes the hoops in style

[km85] 23/11/2019 16:59

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/10-high-quality-aim-shares-growth-company-investors-ii509704


High quality and high value

[oneillshaun] 23/11/2019 14:25

salchow, you are right but I still think it would be unethical for me to discuss many things about XL Media that are not in the public domain.

[salchow] 22/11/2019 17:22

I know he can't but I bet there are a few on here who would like to have a chat with oneillshaun!!!

[superadams] 22/11/2019 17:01

Shaun - hope your leaving doesn't reflect badly on XLM !

[oneillshaun] 22/11/2019 08:58

danieldruff2 - the didnt have any.