Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[augustusgloop] 03/5/2018 21:41

Bill,

You are correct that I am unremittingly negative everywhere that I now post.

That is because I think that the market is way overvalued - so I am not invested in anything at the moment (but will pile in on a crash). I have wrongly expected a crash for 3+ years now.

I now only post on the companies that I previously followed when I was investing (takes too much time to fully research something that I have no intention of investing in now). I am only regularly posting on those companies where I think that there is a severe problem.

Most of the companies that I attacked have already folded or sacked the CEO that I called a liar.

All of them (perhaps one exception at only -50%) are at least 80% down on when I started (in a market that is massively up).

As for Weatherly, there is no hope here at all.
There is simply no value. The mines are in the books at cost (but the sale value of a losing asset will be much lower than this).
They have negative assets, but the sale price as you will soon see is going to be much lower than these book values.

We will know how this is going to pan out in much less than 6 months.
The sale process is just a sham.
Orion will take over - they first have to prove that nobody else will offer more than they are offering (which will be less than the value of the loans).

Will somebody pay more than $145m for this lossmaking set of assets _ I very much doubt it.
Any less than that and there is nothing left for shareholders.

I expect Orion to pull the plug in less than 6 weeks.
They will buy WTI - rather than just take the assets because (as you say) the TAX position is probably the best asset.

Lets add their assets up - based on Kitumba not being able to sell for $5m.

Lets say Berg Aukas - £20m (your figure) (mine would be £2m)
Tschudi = twice Kitumba = $10m
Central ops $1m (at most) - bloody useless.
Tax losses = $15m

So what else do they have that they can sell for $90m ????

[billthebank] 03/5/2018 19:53

Augustus you are knowledgeable chap and I would not profess to know anywhere near the amount that you do about mining but I have to say I rarely ever see a positive comment from you about any mine Of course I could be wrong there but whenever I see you on a thread I think here we go pick the bones out of that. I know that anything I say you will simply see you push push push more negativity. It is because of this that I know that I wont be able to convince you that now could be a good time to invest in Weatherly A company whose c/v has moved from £30M to £2.5M virtually overnight. A company whose 6 months interims in December made a loss of £500K after making a repayment of £1.5M to Orion plus a £8M depreciation allowance. Hmmm I wonder how much tax is available in the last 7 years for Weatherly?

Ok first assumption re Orion being the driving force behind what you are intimating will be a fire sale. Well I don't agree. Who will be right well we will know within 6 months.

I think Berg Aukas where we could deliver Nett £20M for a £600k capital cost and is not available as security for Orion is interesting. The value of that mine is growing rapidly with the rising price of the resources.

Kitumba is also an interesting proposition and Orion are happy for Weatherly to pursue a separate partner to progress this and again there is mileage here.

The strategic review will I am sure be taking all of this into account and will present a plan that Orion will like. I believe with the Price of copper having risen by 10% and the Namibian dollar not as strong as last year then this is further good news.

You have conjectured that Orion are pulling the strings and all of a sudden are changing their perspective about their investment so I will conjecture that the price of copper in 12 months will be above $8000 and Orion think this too. The Cinese and The Indians are growing at a ridiculous rate and in Weatherlys case it is likely that the dollar will grow in strength which will also help the company's case.

So my view augustus is different to yours. My agenda is I have a holding here and I am expecting the Strategic Review to deliver. Why are you on this thread?

[zen12] 03/5/2018 19:14

The strategic review is ordered by Orion we know this from rns, and this is the giveaway key point. They are happy to continue negotiation (going on for many months already so should be well advanced) precondition to continue long term loan restructure negotiations. So why would company go through the aggro of sale process if they were going to call the loan in! Orion surely have assured them, they have a lot invested in this than just money. Also,they’re is no reason to believe the company won’t be able to repay if given time. Recent results are very encouraging with deals on the table, and company heading in the right direction. Only only last month extended the loan and have agreed company to seek alternative funding for kitumba. So, personally see an rns shorty confirming long term restructure of the loan. DYOR

[augustusgloop] 03/5/2018 18:02

It will be Orion that made the decision to put everything up for sale.

They want to get as much of their money back as possible.

Its obvious.
If you owned a business that was worth £5m and you owed the bank £10m and could not meet the agreed repayments - the bank would seek to get as much of the loan back, by whatever way they could.

They would either try to sell the business as a whole, or sell parts of it.
Or they would take over the assets themselves.

Read the RNS - this is exactly what is going on at Weatherly, just that Orion are acting behind the scenes (as they must).
They are not concerned about their few hundred $k shareholding they want their $120 million back.

[zen12] 03/5/2018 16:57

It would be good if Orion confirm their backing / extension of the loan to give Company some breathing space. Delaying this just allows the MMs to play this, this obviously is not good for their holding also. This is overdue.

[mreasygoing] 03/5/2018 16:08

Kitumba is possible. Until they say no, which they haven't.

[billthebank] 03/5/2018 15:43

Berg Aukas worth $20M IMO this share has been ridiculously battered to this level.Our main shareholder seems content enough just wasnt keen on Kitumba. The strategic review I am sure will be enlightening.If the POC rises 10% that will increase profitability on Tschudi alone by$12M The next 6 months will be very very interesting

[billthebank] 03/5/2018 15:39

Can you imagine the impact if Kitumba sees a new partner

[mreasygoing] 02/5/2018 19:01

Agreed, if it can move 100%+ on no actual bid, any good news is going to give this a sharp re-rate.Kitumba is still possible and Berg Aukas has value. Holding till the end game.

[zen12] 02/5/2018 18:35

Surely, it’s in Orion’s interest to work with WTI, after all they’ve been supporting the company for many years. So, today’s rns is a hint of what’s to come, only last month they backed the company and wouldn’t bet against them doing likewise again.

[tidy 2] 02/5/2018 14:35

Place your bets. Shareholder approval required. In the mean time money to be made on this gamble.

[shirley83] 02/5/2018 14:34

And where does it say that in the RNS.. They could get offered 200 million or a further loan.. Speculation is a great thing

[augustusgloop] 02/5/2018 14:27

tidy 2 2 May '18 - 11:45 - 15740 of 15744
0 0 0
All offers require shareholder approval therefore you could be building to a short squeeze. Serious gains to be made in that case

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Not true.

If someone offers $80m - and Orion think that its in their best interest that it is accepted - then they will call in the loans (already overdue).

An Administrator will be appointed within a week and the deal will be done within a few days after that.

Orion get $80m - nothing left for shareholders.

[tidy 2] 02/5/2018 14:25

Offer on the table !!!!

[tidy 2] 02/5/2018 12:21

Place bets for short squeeze. Orion will not write this off they have too much skin in it.

[mreasygoing] 02/5/2018 11:57

I'll wait for the final outcome, hoping for 3p+. Not selling any now. Don't need another ASA/Mwana situation.

[billthebank] 02/5/2018 11:49

Everyone has a view FailedQS. Have you ever been invested here? Just curious as always wary when comments like toast come up when there is an offer on the cards. So even a blind man can see that there might be some potential here. Not without risks that's for sure but as a long term holder I believe there is more to come here. Time will tell though. Good start today but expecting more after all not a large c/v now is it and it isn't just about Tschudi. Orion haven't pulled the plug and I am sure there must be a reason for that?.

[shirley83] 02/5/2018 11:48

Agree tidy tomorrow over 1p without news

[tidy 2] 02/5/2018 11:45

All offers require shareholder approval therefore you could be building to a short squeeze. Serious gains to be made in that case

[shirley83] 02/5/2018 11:36

500 million shares in private hands... Looking good for another rise at this rate of exchange

[failedqs] 02/5/2018 11:35

Can't understand the rise today - this is toast! Orion and the directors are looking after their own interests, everyone else will get zero......

[billthebank] 02/5/2018 11:29

Yeah I miscalcuated but mislead by LSE who said £20M There are 1billion shares in issue only!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so £3.7M is accurate

[dixi] 02/5/2018 11:17

Billthebank - ADVFN has WTI's value at £3.7m - you state £20m?

[shirley83] 02/5/2018 11:12

Good consolidation for the next leg up

[pranchalee] 02/5/2018 11:11

How many shares in circulation here please