Wt Sugar Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 28/8/2009 15:27

Sugar broken resistance today.. go for the retest of recent high please.

[hectorp] 27/8/2009 08:51

Thanks for the china angle. Worth getting long again here. HAd a retracement but it was not very convincing that the bull was over. We will surely retest the last high.
Can see a new trading price for sugar sustaining at higher levels this winter.

[hectorp] 21/8/2009 11:55

Took 50% off the table yesterday at 568 ( how sweet) today the sugar price has lost support on the 5 minute chart . I was stopped out of my remaining 50% however the stop was set at purchasing par price.
So- thank you sugar, will look back next week , need the 5-min chart to gain through what is now resistance.

[hectorp] 20/8/2009 08:22

This seems to be the situation in india just now 'economically speaking' but can't find what is actually happening to crop harvesting or new growth profiles. PS the Indian Government actions seem very likely to egg on speculators.

Indian government may cap sugar stocks meant for industrial use. Paper says government plans to curb stocks to 15 days of companies' requirement to check soaring prices of commodity. Adds, move may force food companies to directly import sugar. "High sugar prices and the prospect of having to import the commodity do not augur well for some of these FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) players, coming as it does in the background of a poor monsoon and rising prices of cereals, vegetable oils and milk," says local analyst. Adds, these companies have limited leeway in passing on rising input costs to customers given that poor rains would already have damped rural demand

[hectorp] 19/8/2009 17:02

Retest coming of 590.. ?
Closed on new days high.

[hectorp] 19/8/2009 09:53

Parabolic on the 5 min chart, very promising.

[hectorp] 18/8/2009 11:18

I'd prefer the opinion of the sugar people than the Government. Rains may hinder the harvest.
We need the Funds to not sell then ..

[hectorp] 18/8/2009 11:15

Perfect U- formation completed since yesterday ( chart. )

[bobdouthwaite] 18/8/2009 10:20

You could be right:

DJ ICE Sugar Review: Lower Close But Pares Early Losses

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


ICE world raw sugar futures posted modest losses, pressured by commodity-wide
weakness, lower crude oil and a firm U.S. dollar. Futures closed up from their
lowest levels of the session, however, on short covering amid an erratic
monsoon season in India.

Nearby October sugar lost 15 points to settle at 21.83 cents a pound.

"Even though we fell to almost one-week lows, the market continues to show
its resilience," a broker said.

As long as there are questions surrounding the Indian sugar cane crop and the
intensity of the monsoon, sugar futures should continue to find support, he
said.

India's growing regions saw heavy rains over the weekend, but analysts are
divided as to how beneficial they are at this late stage. Government officials
said crop prospects have brightened with the rain, while industry officials
said the rains are too late and may actually be a hindrance to the harvest.

The monsoon was down 29% from average between June 1 and Aug. 12, before rain
fell over key growing regions.

Meanwhile, India's agriculture minister on Monday asked state governments to
be vigilant against the hoarding of grains and sugar in order to curb rising
food prices.

Commodity funds liquidated 23,741 longs from world sugar futures and options
in the week to Aug. 11, and added 6,235 shorts, shrinking their net-long
exposure to 111,607 lots, from 141,582 the previous week, the Commitments of
Traders report showed.

The report was a surprise to many traders, since it reveals that the bulk of
the rally to new highs was accomplished by trade buying and not with fund
participation, said Mike McDougall, sugar broker with Newedge Group.

The funds were shown to be taking profits instead of buying on the rally.

Commodity funds are now 8.7% net long, compared with 12.4% last week.

[hectorp] 18/8/2009 09:59

Could be a good time to get back in sugar long..
this light 4 day drift does not suggest a reversion to old pricing and supplies!
I think its up we go beyond last week's highs, and fairly soon.

[hectorp] 17/8/2009 10:44

Hmm.. 2 day sugar chart resistance at 547.
I'm keen to re-enter this market long and possibly even tomorrow haven taken $12 off the table on Thursday.
It is good that the high has been reached and broken and we see the degree of retracement is moderate.
I infer from the news about sugar above, that a further new high can be made in coming weeks. So catching the break up through resistance will provide the best possible upside.

- Also- with markets weakening, will sugar buck the overall market trend -
I think so.

[spob] 15/8/2009 17:40

Outlook for US consumers pegs back gains

By Chris Flood

FT

Published: August 14 2009 11:47 | Last updated: August 14 2009 22:28

Commodity markets staged a correction on Friday, surrendering some gains made earlier in the week as concerns about the outlook for the US consumer replaced relief that France and Germany had shown signs of moving out of recession.

Sugar prices fell after hitting the highest levels for 28 years this week amid concerns about record low stocks and bad weather in India and Brazil, the world's largest sugar producers. ICE October raw sugar, the global benchmark, lost 1.7 per cent at 21.85 cents a pound but rose 5 per cent over the week.

EDITOR'S CHOICE
Claims of oil market exploitation undermined - Aug-13Opinion: US can change Gulf's energy waste - Aug-13Orange juice futures sharpen up - Aug-12Duvvuri Subbarao, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said India's agricultural situation was "disturbing". Poor monsoon rains meant some key growing regions faced drought.

Rabobank cut its forecast for India's 2009/10 sugar output to 14.5m to 15m tonnes, down from forecasts of more than 20m tonnes a few months ago. This would imply no rise from the estimated 15m tonnes that India will produce in 2008/09 and 45 per cent less than the 26.5m tonnes of 2007/08.

Liffe October white sugar lost 4.4 per cent at $551.6 a tonne, up 2.7 per cent this week.

Crude oil prices fell sharply with Nymex September West Texas Intermediate dropping $3.01 to $67.51 a barrel, down 4.9 per cent on the week. ICE September Brent lost $1.07 at $72.41 a barrel, down 2 per cent this week.

WTI traded at a substantial discount to Brent as US demand remains anaemic.

The International Energy Agency, the developed world's energy watchdog, said the US summer driving season seemed "to have fizzled out before getting started".

Among base metals, copper, nickel and zinc hit fresh year-highs during the week but ran into profit taking on Friday. Copper reached $6,465 a tonne before slipping to $6,240, up 1.5 per cent over the week.

Gold ebbed and flowed under the dollar's influence. Bullion slipped 0.9 per cent to $945.50 a troy ounce and was also down 0.9 per cent this week. Support for gold from jewellery buying and investor inflows into exchange traded funds remained absent.
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[hectorp] 14/8/2009 11:00

Hm.. turning 'sweet n'sour'.. Lets see if the support holds ( and which one!) this may allow a fine late entry for some on Monday or Tuessday.
Agri has also drifted, allowing a new long position again enxt week looks propitious.

[hectorp] 13/8/2009 09:34

That could well be. Well up again today, still rising as I type.
Eveything suggest a third great spike , probably to $50 , for example. There is no current resistance either.
Edited up 3% with many other commodities today.

[jackpipe] 13/8/2009 01:41

I don't think this is down to a poor crop in India, being manipulated by international bourses, but a reversal of long-standing surplus situation.

[hectorp] 12/8/2009 22:38

Some want indian Government to act..

[hectorp] 12/8/2009 08:59

Sugar down again this AM though holding at support.

the above holds hope of a further 'spike' in coming weeks:

Analysts at Czarnikow, the sugar broker, have published a revised estimate for global sugar stocks of about 20m tonnes, well below the range of current market estimates of between 30m tonnes and 70m tonnes. China, India, Brazil, Europe and the US account for 65 per cent of all stocks.

"Aside from Europe and China which are carrying surplus stock, most countries are running short of sugar," said Toby Cohen, director at Czarnikow. "This is the case even in the top five stock holding countries, as both India and the US need to increase imports in 2010 to prevent demand over-running supply."

[spob] 11/8/2009 18:38

Oil rises while sugar slips

By Chris Flood

FT

Published: August 11 2009 11:49 | Last updated: August 11 2009 11:49

Most commodity markets made modest gains in cautious summer trading on Tuesday, while sugar prices consolidated after very strong gains in the previous session.

Nymex September West Texas Intermediate rose 10 cents lower at $70.70 a barrel and ICE September Brent gained 14 cents at $73.64 a barrel.

Traders expressed surprise at the lack of market reaction to strong data from China which showed crude oil imports at 4.62m barrel per day in July, a monthly record and up 42 per cent compared with the same period last year.

So far this year, Chinese crude oil imports have risen 5.8 per cent compared with the same period in 2008.

"The strong rise in crude oil imports is only to a certain extent attributable to a stronger domestic demand," said Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank: "Simultaneously, China's exports of refined fuel surged by 31 per cent year-on-year in July. China is currently refining more crude oil than it actually needs."

In the sugar market, Liffe October white sugar 0.6 per cent to $560.6 a tonne, following a jump of 3.8 per cent in the previous session and taking gains this year to 76.3 per cent.

ICE October raw sugar, the global benchmark, dipped 0.6 per cent to 21.86 cents a pound after jumping 5.7 per cent in the previous session.

Raw sugar prices hit 22.44 cents a pound in the previous session, the highest level since mid-1981.

The market is viewed as being in uncharted territory, having traded above current levels only on two previous occasions. Both involved massive spikes. Prices surged above 50 cents per pound in 1974-75 and 1980-81.

Raw sugar prices have already risen 85 per cent this year as bad weather has affected output in Brazil and India, the world's two largest producers.

Poor monsoon rains in India, the world's largest sugar consumer, have fuelled concerns that some of the country's key agricultural growing regions could face drought.

Tuesday brought reports that sugar stocks in India had dropped to 6m tonnes in July, enough for three months of domestic consumption, from 7.6m tonnes in June.

Sugar inventories are estimated to be at record lows as many producers and physical traders maintain only minimal stock levels to reduce costs.

Analysts at Czarnikow, the sugar broker, have published a revised estimate for global sugar stocks of about 20m tonnes, well below the range of current market estimates of between 30m tonnes and 70m tonnes. China, India, Brazil, Europe and the US account for 65 per cent of all stocks.

"Aside from Europe and China which are carrying surplus stock, most countries are running short of sugar," said Toby Cohen, director at Czarnikow. "This is the case even in the top five stock holding countries, as both India and the US need to increase imports in 2010 to prevent demand over-running supply."

Mr Cohen warned that India's stock position looked particularly vulnerable, with inventories on course to fall as low as 2.2m tonnes during the Diwali festival in mid-October, before new season supplies become available.

Czarnikow said low stocks were not only a problem in the developing world as the US stocks-to-consumption ratio could fall to 10 per cent this year, suggesting higher imports would be required.

In Chicago, trading in grains and soyabeans was cautious ahead of the US Department of Agriculture August crop report, due out on Wednesday.

CBOT September corn rose 3¼ cents to $3.27½ a bushel while CBOT September wheat added 2¾ cents at $4.98 a bushel, but CBOT August soyabeans increased 17¼ cents to $11.88½ a bushel.

The consensus view is for the USDA to revise its 2009/10 corn production forecast up from 12.29bn bushels to 12.508bn bushels, helped by higher yield estimates, up from 153.4 bushels an acre to 157.5.

The USDA forecast for the 2009/10 soyabean crop at 3.26bn bushels, a record, could be trimmed to 3.225bn bushels with yields expected to dip from 42.6 bushels an acre to 42.16 bushels an acre.

Rich Feltes of MF Global said the August crop report usually proved a better indicator of the final corn yield than the final soyabean yield. "The USDA has underestimated final soybean yields in three out of the last five seasons," said Mr Feltes.

[hectorp] 11/8/2009 14:25

Lwets hope so.
I dont need a correction yet. Should nearly all be longs coming in still

[hectorp] 11/8/2009 09:26

Pity you missed the recent rush , Erik.
Up a little on open.
PS I never use an instrument with a time value aspect.
( only exception is my POGW )

[eriktherock] 11/8/2009 08:47

Thanks. I was long all last year via a $13 call c/w expired worthless in Dec, then SG did away with it :-)

[hectorp] 11/8/2009 08:24

IG Index spread bet - London Sugar ( October)

[eriktherock] 10/8/2009 18:56

Doc, which vehicle have you used ?

[hectorp] 10/8/2009 18:48

Decided to punt sugar today. ( long)
So watch the overnight crash!